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Marshall vs Buffalo Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 79-76
Projected total 155.1
Final 92-65
45-24 47-41
Position#266
Record-
FormWLWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Marshall 🏆
USA
Vs
60%
40%
■ MARS 60%■ BUFF 40%
Pythia win probability
Buffalo
USA
Position#274
Record-
FormLLWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Marshall hosts Buffalo on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model naming Marshall the favourite and projecting a 60% chance of a home win. Marshall's last five outings include two victories and three defeats, highlighted by a 97-88 win over Old Dominion at home, while Buffalo has struggled, winning only one of its last five with a 72-67 triumph at home over Eastern Michigan. The model assigns a 40% chance to Buffalo, projects a final score of 79-76, and a total of 155.1 points. The home spread is set at -2.0, with a 55% probability that Marshall covers, and the over-under line is 157.0 with a 45% chance of the over. An overtime probability of 5% is also noted. Marshall's recent home loss to Georgia Southern 78-82 on 8 March 2026 and their win over Old Dominion on 24 February 2026 illustrate the volatility of their form, setting the stage for a tightly contested matchup.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Marshall winWon
59.5%fair 1.68
Best odds1.75
Implied54.7%
Edge+4.9pp
Buffalo winLost
40.5%fair 2.47
Best odds2.13
Implied45.3%
Edge-4.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MarshallUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Miss
#174
W
81-77
81
77
+4
H05/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
74-90
74
90
-16
H07/02
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
W
81-79
81
79
+2
A12/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
87-101
87
101
-14
A15/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
84-80
84
80
+4
H17/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
W
94-93
94
93
+1
A19/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
75-79
75
79
-4
A21/02
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
W
97-88
97
88
+9
H25/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
82-99
82
99
-17
H28/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
78-82
78
82
-4
H09/03
NCAA
1H
2H
34-38
47-39
31-49
43-41
34-47
47-32
42-59
45-42
48-35
36-45
41-52
53-41
24-36
51-43
49-42
48-46
40-38
42-61
35-42
43-40
170.1Avg total
83.3Scored
86.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)83.386.8170.1-3.550%
Last 5 (5)85.288.2173.4-3.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)73.788.0161.7-14.30%
vs Similar (20)78.178.9157.0-0.855%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)91.376.3167.7+15.083%
This opponent (Buffalo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BuffaloUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
71-73
71
73
-2
H03/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
69-81
69
81
-12
A07/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
63-53
63
53
+10
A12/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
L
70-72
70
72
-2
H17/02
NCAA
UMass
#189
W
86-82 OT
86
82
+4
A21/02
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
85-99
85
99
-14
A25/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
L
70-75
70
75
-5
H28/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
72-67
72
67
+5
H03/03
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
78-98
78
98
-20
A07/03
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
70-73
70
73
-3
A12/03
NCAA
1H
2H
35-38
36-35
24-40
45-41
30-27
33-26
35-29
35-43
29-34
39-34
35-39
50-60
26-34
44-41
43-27
29-40
33-37
45-61
29-42
41-31
150.7Avg total
73.4Scored
77.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)73.477.3150.7-3.930%
Last 5 (5)75.082.4157.4-7.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)80.484.1164.6-3.729%
vs Similar (12)76.878.9155.7-2.242%
vs Weaker (10)75.368.3143.6+7.070%
This opponent (Marshall) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152Actual: Over 152
Over 152
56.8%
@ 1.50-5.7pp
Under 152
43.2%
@ 2.50+5.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 157 · main linePush
Over 157
44.5%
@ 1.91-5.5pp
Under 157
55.5%
@ 1.91+5.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 162Actual: Under 162
Over 162
32.8%
@ 2.55-3.7pp
Under 162
67.2%
@ 1.47+3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Under
Bet365
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

Marshall total 75Actual: Marshall over 75
Over 75
65.3%
Under 75
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marshall total 79 · main lineActual: Marshall over 79
Over 79
49.5%
@ 1.85-0.8pp
Under 79
50.5%
@ 1.87+0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Marshall total 83Actual: Marshall over 83
Over 83
33.8%
Under 83
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buffalo total 74Actual: Buffalo under 74
Over 74
58.3%
Under 74
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buffalo total 78 · main lineActual: Buffalo under 78
Over 78
42.4%
@ 1.86-7.5pp
Under 78
57.6%
@ 1.85+7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Buffalo total 82Actual: Buffalo under 82
Over 82
27.8%
Under 82
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Marshall -5Actual: Marshall -5
MARS -5
42.9%
@ 2.40+4.1pp
BUFF +5
57.1%
@ 1.52-4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
MARS
Bet365
2.40
BUFF
Bet365
1.52
Spread Marshall -2 · main lineActual: Marshall -2
MARS -2
54.7%
@ 1.95+4.9pp
BUFF +2
45.3%
@ 1.91-4.9pp
Best 5 market prices
MARS
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.90
SBO
1.87
BUFF
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Spread Marshall +1Actual: Marshall +1
MARS +1
61.2%
@ 1.71+4.5pp
BUFF -1
38.8%
@ 2.21-4.5pp
Best 5 market prices
MARS
Bet365
1.71
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathon Be
1.66
BUFF
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.01

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -6.0-6.01st half: -2.8-2.82nd half2nd half: +2.5+2.52nd half: -1.5-1.5
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -6.0-6.01st half: -2.8-2.82nd half2nd half: +2.5+2.52nd half: -1.5-1.5
MarshallBuffalo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
MarshallLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Miss
#174
L
34-38
34
38
-4
H05/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
31-49
31
49
-18
H07/02
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
L
34-47
34
47
-13
A12/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
42-59
42
59
-17
A15/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
48-35
48
35
+13
H17/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
L
41-52
41
52
-11
A19/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
24-36
24
36
-12
A21/02
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H25/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H28/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
35-42
35
42
-7
H09/03
NCAA
81.6Avg total
37.8Scored
43.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73.5
Last 30 (30)36.738.675.3-1.940%50%
Last 30 at home (18)38.236.574.7+1.756%44%
Last 30 away (12)34.441.876.2-7.417%58%
Last 10 (10)37.843.881.6-6.030%80%
Last 5 (5)37.842.079.8-4.240%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)31.047.078.0-16.00%67%
vs Similar (20)35.437.973.2-2.545%45%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)42.339.281.5+3.233%67%
This opponent (Buffalo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BuffaloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H03/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
24-40
24
40
-16
A07/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
30-27
30
27
+3
A12/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
35-29
35
29
+6
H17/02
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
29-34
29
34
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A25/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
L
26-34
26
34
-8
H28/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
43-27
43
27
+16
H03/03
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A07/03
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
29-42
29
42
-13
A12/03
NCAA
66.6Avg total
31.9Scored
34.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73.5
Last 30 (30)36.735.071.7+1.650%37%
Last 30 at home (14)35.835.971.7-0.136%36%
Last 30 away (16)37.434.271.7+3.262%38%
Last 10 (10)31.934.766.6-2.830%10%
Last 5 (5)33.235.869.0-2.620%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)36.040.476.4-4.429%43%
vs Similar (12)33.536.269.7-2.733%33%
vs Weaker (10)39.529.769.2+9.880%30%
This opponent (Marshall) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Marshall win
MARS win
no forecast
@ 1.78
BUFF win
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Spread Marshall -1 · main lineActual: Marshall -1
MARS -1
no forecast
@ 1.92
BUFF +1
no forecast
@ 1.79
1st half Over/Under 73.5 · main lineActual: Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 2.35
Marshall 1st half total 39 · main lineActual: Marshall over 39
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
Buffalo 1st half total 38.5 · main lineActual: Buffalo under 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.98
Under
no forecast
@ 1.81
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.60
Under
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.75
Under
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Spread Marshall -2.5Actual: Marshall -2.5
MARS -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
BUFF +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
1st half Over/Under 77Actual: Under 77
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under
no forecast
@ 2.57
1st half Spread Marshall -3.5Actual: Marshall -3.5
MARS -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
BUFF +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Spread Marshall +1.5Actual: Marshall +1.5
MARS +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
BUFF -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.32
1st half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Marshall -4.5Actual: Marshall -4.5
MARS -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.57
BUFF +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread Marshall +2.5Actual: Marshall +2.5
MARS +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
BUFF -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.47
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Marshall (regulation)
MARS
no forecast
@ 1.85
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
BUFF
no forecast
@ 2.10

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MARS win + total 156.5
🔒 Pro
BUFF win + total 156.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MARS leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: BUFF leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Marshall +677.7%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+7.9ppWon
Buffalo under 83.576.1%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+7.6ppWon
Marshall +574.7%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+7.4ppWon
Marshall +471.5%1.45
Bet365
1.45		----+6.9ppWon
Marshall +7.580.8%1.25
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.23		---+6.6ppWon
Marshall +6.578.3%1.29
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.27		---+6.5ppWon
Marshall +5.575.5%1.34
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.31		---+6.4ppWon
Buffalo under 82.573.1%1.37
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.36		---+6.3ppWon
Marshall +4.572.5%1.40
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.37		---+6.1ppWon
Marshall +17.595.4%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+6.1ppWon
Marshall +22.598.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+5.7ppWon
Marshall +12.590.3%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+5.3ppWon
Overtime: no94.7%1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03		---+5.0ppWon
Buffalo +22.595.2%1.03
Bet365
1.03		----+5.0ppLost
Buffalo under 84.579.0%1.25
Bet365
1.25		----+4.5ppWon
Under 164.572.0%1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.34		---+3.8ppWon
Buffalo +17.589.9%1.08
Bet365
1.08		----+3.3ppLost
Marshall over 62.594.5%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+3.0ppWon
Marshall over 63.593.3%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+2.6ppWon
Under 16471.4%1.35
Bet365
1.35		----+2.5ppWon
Marshall over 64.592.0%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+2.3ppWon
Buffalo over 58.595.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+2.0ppWon
Marshall under 91.589.0%1.07
Bet365
1.07		----+1.9ppLost
Marshall over 65.590.4%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+1.7ppWon
Under 171.584.0%1.13
Bet365
1.13		----+1.7ppWon
Under 176.589.9%1.06
Bet365
1.06		----+1.6ppWon
Buffalo +12.580.4%1.18
Bet365
1.18		----+1.6ppLost
Marshall under 84.570.9%1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.32		---+1.5ppLost
Buffalo over 60.593.6%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.4ppWon
Under 166.575.8%1.25
Bet365
1.25		----+1.4ppWon
Marshall under 88.582.6%1.14
Bet365
1.14		----+1.1ppLost
Marshall over 66.588.6%1.07
Bet365
1.07		----+1.1ppWon
Marshall under 89.584.9%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+1.1ppLost
Marshall under 87.580.0%1.18
Bet365
1.18		----+1.1ppLost
Marshall under 90.587.1%1.09
Bet365
1.09		----+1.0ppLost
Marshall under 86.577.1%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+1.0ppLost
Marshall over 69.582.0%1.14
Bet365
1.14		----+0.6ppWon
Marshall over 67.586.7%1.09
Bet365
1.09		----+0.6ppWon
Marshall over 73.570.0%1.32
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.32		---+0.5ppWon
Marshall over 70.579.3%1.18
Bet365
1.18		----+0.5ppWon
Marshall under 85.574.1%1.26
Bet365
1.26		----+0.3ppLost
Marshall over 71.576.4%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+0.3ppWon
Over 131.592.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.1ppWon
Marshall over 68.584.4%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+0.1ppWon
Buffalo over 62.590.8%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+0.0ppWon
Marshall over 72.573.3%1.26
Bet365
1.26		-----0.7ppWon
Buffalo +9.572.3%1.27
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.26		----1.0ppLost
Buffalo +971.5%1.27
Bet365
1.27		-----1.4ppLost
Buffalo over 64.587.1%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----1.6ppWon
Over 136.586.8%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----2.5ppWon
Buffalo over 66.582.5%1.09
Bet365
1.09		-----3.6ppLost
Buffalo over 68.577.0%1.14
Bet365
1.14		-----4.4ppLost
Buffalo over 67.579.9%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----4.5ppLost
Over 141.579.1%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----5.3ppWon
Buffalo over 70.570.6%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----5.5ppLost
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Marshall wins
0
Buffalo wins
No previous meetings.
Marshalllast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/03/26HGeorgia Southern78-82
28/02/26HGeorgia Southern82-99
25/02/26HOld Dominion97-88
21/02/26ACoastal Carolina75-79
19/02/26AAppalachian State94-93
17/02/26HSouth Alabama84-80
15/02/26AGeorgia Southern87-101
12/02/26AOld Dominion81-79
07/02/26HMiami (Ohio)74-90
05/02/26HSouthern Miss81-77
Buffalolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/03/26AAkron70-73
07/03/26AToledo78-98
03/03/26HEastern Michigan72-67
28/02/26HCentral Michigan70-75
25/02/26AAkron85-99
21/02/26AUMass86-82 OT
17/02/26HNorthern Illinois70-72
12/02/26ABall State63-53
07/02/26ASouth Alabama69-81
03/02/26HMiami (Ohio)71-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Marshall
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 157---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Buffalo
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 157---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Georgia State1010%73.076.0-3.0
2 Appalachian State1010%49.063.0-14.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bowling Green110100%76.073.0+3.0
2 Northern Illinois1010%87.089.0-2.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Marshall454792
Buffalo244165
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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