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Mersin SK vs Tofas Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 19 Oct 2025
Tip-off: 15:00
Final 84-80
20-21 22-16 19-22 23-21
Position#13
Record1-2
FormWLLLW
Points / game80.7
Allowed / game79.7
vs
Position#9
Record2-1
FormWLWWW
Points / game85.3
Allowed / game81.3
TurkeyBasketbol Süper LigiRound 4· Servet Tazegül Spor Salonu
Domestic2025-26
Meetings · Mersin SK v Tofas
19 Oct 2025
MES84
TOF80
12 Feb 2025
MES101
TOF95
28 Dec 2024
MES79
TOF58
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mersin SK winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Tofas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Mersin SKTurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSK
Date
Competition
Bursaspor
#9
W
89-82
89
82
+7
87avg 77
H03/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bahcesehir Kol.
#5
W
60-59
60
59
+1
2avg 77
A09/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Darussafaka
#15
W
105-89
105
89
+16
107avg 77
H18/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Anadolu Efes
#2
L
71-92
71
92
-21
60avg 77
A30/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Anadolu Efes
#2
L
81-84
81
84
-3
84avg 77
H01/06
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Manisa
#11
W
87-68
87
68
+19
78avg 77
A28/09
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Besiktas
#2
L
86-99
86
99
-13
80avg 77
H04/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Unicaja
#2
L
66-97
66
97
-31
60avg 77
A08/10
Champions League
Bahcesehir Kol.
#3
L
69-72
69
72
-3
61avg 77
A11/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Oostende
#46
W
104-86
104
86
+18
102avg 77
A15/10
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-17
21-16
24-17
19-32
20-15
13-11
12-17
15-16
28-26
28-22
31-19
18-22
20-28
13-23
21-25
17-16
18-25
20-27
23-14
20-18
19-14
22-15
24-21
22-18
22-29
13-29
27-15
24-26
11-22
20-29
16-19
19-27
20-19
16-21
11-13
22-19
30-17
19-31
24-16
31-22
164.6Avg total
81.8Scored
82.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)80.779.7160.3+1.033%
Season at home (1)86.099.0185.0-13.00%
Season away (2)78.070.0148.0+8.050%
Last 10 (10)81.882.8164.6-1.050%
Last 5 (5)82.484.4166.8-2.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)75.685.1160.7-9.523%
vs Similar ◀ (14)91.484.4175.9+7.071%
vs Weaker (2)69.083.0152.0-14.050%
This opponent (Tofas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TofasTurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTofas
Date
Competition
Merkezefendi
#14
W
94-92
94
92
+2
96avg 85
A11/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Karsiyaka
#13
W
90-76
90
76
+14
87avg 85
H17/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bahcesehir Kol.
#5
W
94-80
94
80
+14
95avg 85
H29/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bahcesehir Kol.
#5
L
65-75
65
75
-10
59avg 85
A31/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bahcesehir Kol.
#5
L
92-96 OT
92
96
-4
84avg 85
H02/06
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Fenerbahce
#1
W
80-78
80
78
+2
80avg 85
H27/09
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Galatasaray
#7
L
91-93
91
93
-2
89avg 85
A03/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bnei Herzliya
#34
W
90-86
90
86
+4
96avg 85
H08/10
Champions League
Turk Telekom
#5
W
85-73
85
73
+12
93avg 85
H11/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Trapani
#25
W
91-89
91
89
+2
91avg 85
A14/10
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-21
27-22
20-28
18-21
20-23
26-22
11-11
33-20
30-22
23-17
15-29
26-12
20-11
18-25
12-17
15-22
24-14
18-24
19-22
24-25
18-18
25-21
15-22
22-17
24-20
18-29
21-23
28-21
24-22
25-27
14-26
27-11
26-12
24-20
16-23
19-18
26-17
27-19
19-28
19-25
171.0Avg total
87.2Scored
83.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)85.381.3166.7+4.067%
Season at home (2)82.575.5158.0+7.0100%
Season away (1)91.093.0184.0-2.00%
Last 10 (10)87.283.8171.0+3.470%
Last 5 (5)87.483.8171.2+3.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)81.387.0168.3-5.743%
vs Similar ◀ (15)84.986.6171.5-1.747%
vs Weaker (7)96.185.0181.1+11.186%
This opponent (Mersin SK) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: +6.1+6.1Q2Q2: -3.9-3.9Q2: +0.5+0.5Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: -6.7-6.7Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +3.9+3.9
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: +6.1+6.1Q2Q2: -3.9-3.9Q2: +0.5+0.5Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: -6.7-6.7Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +3.9+3.9
Mersin SKTofas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Mersin SKLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bursaspor
#9
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H03/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bahcesehir Kol.
#5
W
33-26
33
26
+7
A09/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Darussafaka
#15
W
56-48
56
48
+8
H18/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Anadolu Efes
#2
L
33-51
33
51
-18
A30/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Anadolu Efes
#2
L
38-52
38
52
-14
H01/06
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Manisa
#11
W
41-29
41
29
+12
A28/09
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Besiktas
#2
L
35-58
35
58
-23
H04/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Unicaja
#2
L
31-51
31
51
-20
A08/10
Champions League
Bahcesehir Kol.
#3
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A11/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Oostende
#46
W
49-48
49
48
+1
A15/10
Champions League
83.4Avg total
39.8Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.642.382.9-1.843%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.842.984.7-1.147%-
Last 30 away (15)39.341.881.1-2.540%-
Last 10 (10)39.843.683.4-3.850%-
Last 5 (5)38.445.283.6-6.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)36.843.780.5-6.823%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)44.641.686.3+3.057%-
vs Weaker (2)34.038.072.0-4.050%-
This opponent (Tofas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TofasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Merkezefendi
#14
W
56-43
56
43
+13
A11/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Karsiyaka
#13
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H17/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bahcesehir Kol.
#5
W
53-39
53
39
+14
H29/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bahcesehir Kol.
#5
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A31/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bahcesehir Kol.
#5
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H02/06
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Fenerbahce
#1
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H27/09
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Galatasaray
#7
L
42-49
42
49
-7
A03/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bnei Herzliya
#34
D
49-49
49
49
+0
H08/10
Champions League
Turk Telekom
#5
W
50-32
50
32
+18
H11/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Trapani
#25
W
53-36
53
36
+17
A14/10
Champions League
87.8Avg total
47.2Scored
40.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.742.988.5+2.860%-
Last 30 at home (15)48.941.790.6+7.387%-
Last 30 away (15)42.444.186.5-1.733%-
Last 10 (10)47.240.687.8+6.680%-
Last 5 (5)47.441.088.4+6.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)43.342.786.0+0.657%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)45.843.188.9+2.760%-
vs Weaker (7)48.142.190.3+6.071%-
This opponent (Mersin SK) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Mersin SKtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mersin SK: 80.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.8 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.6 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.7 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.220.4
53.4%
54.0%40.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.27.8
36.8%
35.6%23.4
🏀 Free throws21.616.6
76.9%
76.0%16.6
They take 59.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Tofastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tofas: 84.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀20%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.6 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers16.5 pts a game · 20% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.9 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.7 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.424.8
58.5%
54.0%49.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers17.35.5
31.8%
35.6%16.5
🏀 Free throws23.017.9
77.8%
76.0%17.9
They take 59.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 17.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 29% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 5/10 games with a box score before 19 Oct 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Mersin SK
WLLLWLLWWW
Tofas
WWWLWLLWWW
#13
League position
#9
-4.5
Net rating
+1.5
112.6
Offensive rating
111.5
117.1
Defensive rating
110.0
54.0%
Effective FG%
55.4%
52.7%
Opp. effective FG%
52.0%
19.7%
Turnover %
18.2%
34.4%
Off. rebound %
28.4%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.39
36.8%
3-point %
31.8%
61.0%
Assist %
73.9%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence112.6 · 111.5Defence117.1 · 110.0Shooting54.0% · 55.4%3-point %36.8% · 31.8%Ball care19.7% · 18.2%Off. rebounds34.4% · 28.4%Free throws0.36 · 0.39Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ Mersin SK   ■ Tofas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Mersin SK wins
1
Tofas wins
DateGameScore
27/04/25Tofas v Mersin SK87-65
12/02/25Mersin SK v Tofas101-95
28/12/24Mersin SK v Tofas79-58
Mersin SKlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/10/25AOostende104-86
11/10/25ABahcesehir Kol.69-72
08/10/25AUnicaja66-97
04/10/25HBesiktas86-99
28/09/25AManisa87-68
01/06/25HAnadolu Efes81-84
30/05/25AAnadolu Efes71-92
18/05/25HDarussafaka105-89
09/05/25ABahcesehir Kol.60-59
03/05/25HBursaspor89-82
Tofaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/10/25ATrapani91-89
11/10/25HTurk Telekom85-73
08/10/25HBnei Herzliya90-86
03/10/25AGalatasaray91-93
27/09/25HFenerbahce80-78
02/06/25HBahcesehir Kol.92-96 OT
31/05/25ABahcesehir Kol.65-75
29/05/25HBahcesehir Kol.94-80
17/05/25HKarsiyaka90-76
11/05/25AMerkezefendi94-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mersin SK
Basketbol Süper Ligi 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLL33%
HomeL0%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%0%50%
Points / game80.786.078.0
Allowed / game79.799.070.0
Point differential+1.0-13.0+8.0
Avg total160.3185.0148.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Tofas
Basketbol Süper Ligi 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game85.382.591.0
Allowed / game81.375.593.0
Point differential+4.0+7.0-2.0
Avg total166.7158.0184.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Anadolu Efes330100%91.073.7+17.3
2 Besiktas440100%90.078.5+11.5
3 Bahcesehir Kol.440100%90.883.5+7.2
4 Fenerbahce43175%88.878.0+10.8
5 Tofas32167%85.381.3+4.0
6 Trabzonspor42250%80.078.0+2.0
7 Merkezefendi42250%75.076.5-1.5
8 Bursaspor42250%76.879.0-2.2
9 Galatasaray42250%83.886.0-2.2
10 Mersin SK31233%80.779.7+1.0
11 Karsiyaka31233%74.080.3-6.3
12 Turk Telekom41325%82.081.2+0.8
13 Esenler Erokspor41325%79.580.2-0.8
14 Manisa41325%75.283.8-8.5
15 Petkim Spor41325%76.085.8-9.8
16 Buyukcekmece4040%75.594.8-19.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Mersin SK2022192384
Tofas2116222180
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