Miami (FL) faces North Alabama on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, with Pythia designating Miami (FL) as the clear favourite, reflecting its 2-1 record, 79.7 points per game and 61.7 allowed per game, and a 143rd league position that outpaces North Alabama's 75.7 points per game and 74.0 allowed per game from a 2-1 record and 189th spot. Miami (FL) has gone 2-0 at home, scoring 86.0 points and conceding 54.0, while North Alabama is 1-1 on the road, averaging 75.5 points and 78.0 allowed. Miami's last five games include wins over North Florida 89-51 and Wagner 83-57, and a loss to Florida 67-77, whereas North Alabama's recent slate shows a loss to Oklahoma 72-81, a win over Union Bulldogs 76-66, and a win over UC Davis 79-75. Pythia projects a 98% chance of a Miami (FL) win, 2% for North Alabama, with a 87-62 scoreline and a total of 149.4 points; the 148.5 line carries a 52% over probability, and there is a 1% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Miami (FL) winWon
98.0%fair 1.02
Best odds1.01
Implied94.5%
Edge+3.5pp
North Alabama winLost
2.0%fair 50.14
Best odds50.00
Implied5.5%
Edge-3.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Miami (FL)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Under 146.5
Over 146.5
57.2%
@ 1.68-6.7pp
Under 146.5
42.8%
@ 2.60+6.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.68
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.52
Over/Under 151.5 · main lineActual: Under 151.5
Over 151.5
44.8%
@ 1.92-5.0pp
Under 151.5
55.2%
@ 1.92+5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.89
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.92
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Under 156.5
Over 156.5
32.9%
@ 2.55-4.6pp
Under 156.5
67.1%
@ 1.50+4.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Miami (FL) total 88Actual: Miami (FL) over 88
Over 88
46.4%
Under 88
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miami (FL) total 92 · main lineActual: Miami (FL) over 92
Over 92
30.5%
@ 1.85-19.5pp
Under 92
69.5%
@ 1.85+19.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Miami (FL) total 96Actual: Miami (FL) under 96
Over 96
17.7%
Under 96
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
North Alabama total 54Actual: North Alabama under 54
Over 54
80.5%
Under 54
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
North Alabama total 58 · main lineActual: North Alabama under 58
Over 58
67.1%
@ 1.85+16.9pp
Under 58
32.9%
@ 1.87-16.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
North Alabama total 62Actual: North Alabama under 62
Over 62
51.0%
Under 62
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Miami (FL) -36Actual: Miami (FL) -36
MIAM -36
no forecast
@ 2.31
NORT +36
no forecast
@ 1.71
Best 5 market prices
MIAM
Pinnacle
2.31
Bet365
2.06
NORT
Bet365
1.71
Pinnacle
1.63
Spread Miami (FL) -33 · main lineActual: Miami (FL) -33
MIAM -33
no forecast
@ 1.95
NORT +33
no forecast
@ 2.00
Best 5 market prices
MIAM
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.71
NORT
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread Miami (FL) -30Actual: Miami (FL) -30
MIAM -30
no forecast
@ 1.50
NORT +30
no forecast
@ 2.50
Best 5 market prices
MIAM
Bet365
1.50
NORT
Bet365
2.50
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Miami (FL)North Alabama
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Miami (FL) under 93
73.1%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
+23.1pp
Lost
Miami (FL) under 95.5
80.1%
1.56
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Won
Miami (FL) under 93.5
74.0%
1.81
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
+21.3pp
Lost
Miami (FL) under 92.5
70.6%
1.88
BetVictor
1.93
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
+21.0pp
Lost
Miami (FL) under 97.5
85.2%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Won
North Alabama over 57
70.8%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Lost
Miami (FL) under 96.5
82.8%
1.44
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.36
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
Miami (FL) under 94.5
77.2%
1.58
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+19.0pp
Won
Miami (FL) under 99.5
89.4%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Won
Miami (FL) under 98.5
87.4%
1.31
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.25
-
-
+18.1pp
Won
North Alabama over 56.5
71.8%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.50
-
-
+15.8pp
Lost
North Alabama over 54.5
78.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Lost
North Alabama over 55.5
75.1%
1.46
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Lost
North Alabama over 52.5
83.6%
1.27
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.26
1xBet
1.22
-
-
+9.8pp
Lost
North Alabama over 53.5
81.0%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+9.5pp
Lost
North Alabama over 51.5
86.0%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Miami (FL) (regulation)
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Under 158
70.8%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Under 158.5
71.5%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Miami (FL) win
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Under 159
73.0%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Under 159.5
73.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Under 176.5
95.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Under 171.5
91.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Under 161.5
77.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Under 174.5
94.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Over 124.5
94.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Under 166.5
85.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 71.5
94.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Over 141
70.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Over 140.5
71.0%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Over 129.5
89.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Over 126.5
92.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 72.5
93.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Under 169.5
89.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 73.5
91.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 74.5
90.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Over 134.5
82.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Over 131.5
86.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Under 164.5
82.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Over 139.5
73.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 75.5
88.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 76.5
85.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 77.5
83.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Over 136.5
78.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
North Alabama under 72.5
84.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 78.5
81.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-8.1pp
Won
Miami (FL) -13.5
84.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 79.5
78.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
North Alabama under 70.5
79.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-10.5pp
Won
North Alabama under 68.5
73.6%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-11.3pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 80.5
75.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-11.6pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 81.5
71.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-13.4pp
Won
North Alabama under 67.5
70.2%
1.11
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-13.5pp
Won
Miami (FL) -18.5
71.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-17.6pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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