Miami (FL) will host Wagner on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Miami (FL) as the clear favourite at 98% to win, reflecting the Hurricanes' 0-1 record, 67.0 points scored and 77.0 allowed per game, and their higher league position of 287 versus Wagner's 349, 0-1 record, 50.0 points scored and 76.0 allowed. Miami's recent form shows a 2-3 record over the last five games, including a 67-77 loss to Florida away, a 69-79 loss to Purdue away, and a 80-66 home victory over Missouri, while Wagner's last five games are 3-2, with a 70-60 away win over Central Connecticut State, a 56-64 loss to LIU Sharks away, and a 50-76 loss to Boston College away. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a score of 87-63, with Miami (FL) scoring 87 and Wagner 63, for a total of 150.1 points; the over/under line is 146.5 with a 59% chance of the over, and the probability of Miami covering the spread is 98%. The game is expected to be decided by a single possession, with Miami's offensive efficiency and Wagner's defensive struggles suggesting a decisive outcome.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Miami (FL) winWon
97.6%fair 1.03
Best odds1.01
Implied94.5%
Edge+3.0pp
Wagner winLost
2.4%fair 40.95
Best odds100.00
Implied5.5%
Edge-3.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Miami (FL)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 139.5Actual: Over 139.5
Over 139.5
74.5%
@ 1.38+7.0pp
Under 139.5
25.5%
@ 2.87-7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.36
Under
Betano
2.87
Bet365
2.80
Over/Under 144.5 · main lineActual: Under 144.5
Over 144.5
63.5%
@ 1.90+13.0pp
Under 144.5
36.5%
@ 1.93-13.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Over/Under 149.5Actual: Under 149.5
Over 149.5
51.4%
@ 2.40+10.5pp
Under 149.5
48.6%
@ 1.62-10.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.62
Marathon Be
1.62
Bet365
1.52
📊 3. Team Totals
Miami (FL) total 85.5Actual: Miami (FL) under 85.5
Over 85.5
55.6%
@ 1.44-13.3pp
Under 85.5
44.4%
@ 3.70+13.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.70
Betano
2.45
Miami (FL) total 89.5 · main lineActual: Miami (FL) under 89.5
Over 89.5
39.5%
@ 1.85-11.2pp
Under 89.5
60.5%
@ 2.50+11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
1xBet
1.53
Under
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.38
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Miami (FL) total 93.5Actual: Miami (FL) under 93.5
Over 93.5
25.1%
@ 2.42-19.2pp
Under 93.5
74.9%
@ 1.69+19.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Pinnacle
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.44
Wagner total 51.5Actual: Wagner over 51.5
Over 51.5
87.9%
@ 1.29+16.0pp
Under 51.5
12.1%
@ 3.30-16.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.30
Wagner total 55.5 · main lineActual: Wagner over 55.5
Over 55.5
78.0%
@ 1.88+28.2pp
Under 55.5
22.0%
@ 1.91-28.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Betano
1.83
Wagner total 59.5Actual: Wagner under 59.5
Over 59.5
64.4%
@ 3.50+30.4pp
Under 59.5
35.6%
@ 1.55-30.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.50
Betano
2.18
Under
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.25
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Miami (FL) -36.5Actual: Wagner +36.5
MIAM -36.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
WAGN +36.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
Best 5 market prices
MIAM
Betano
2.30
1xBet
1.80
Marathon Be
1.67
Bet365
1.62
WAGN
Bet365
2.15
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Be
1.79
Betano
1.53
Spread Miami (FL) -33.5 · main lineActual: Wagner +33.5
MIAM -33.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
WAGN +33.5
no forecast
@ 2.70
Best 5 market prices
MIAM
Betano
2.00
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.41
WAGN
Bet365
2.70
SBO
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
Betano
1.78
Spread Miami (FL) -30.5Actual: Wagner +30.5
MIAM -30.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
WAGN +30.5
no forecast
@ 3.70
Best 5 market prices
MIAM
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.25
WAGN
Bet365
3.70
Betano
2.05
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Miami (FL)Wagner
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Wagner over 54.5
80.8%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.12
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.86
+36.5pp
Won
Wagner over 53
85.5%
1.86
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
+36.0pp
Won
Wagner over 53.5
83.4%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.96
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
BetVictor
1.88
Bet365
1.86
+35.2pp
Won
Wagner over 52.5
85.8%
1.79
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.74
-
-
+33.7pp
Won
Wagner over 54
83.0%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+33.4pp
Won
Wagner over 55
80.3%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+30.8pp
Won
Wagner over 55.5
78.0%
1.85
Betano
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
-
+28.2pp
Won
Wagner over 56
77.3%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86
-
-
-
-
+27.5pp
Won
Wagner over 50.5
89.8%
1.46
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+26.1pp
Won
Wagner over 56.5
74.9%
2.14
1xBet
2.62
Bet365
2.60
Marathon Bet
1.85
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
+24.9pp
Won
Wagner over 57
74.0%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+24.3pp
Push
Miami (FL) under 93
74.0%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
+23.6pp
Won
Wagner over 57.5
71.6%
1.89
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.83
-
-
+23.0pp
Lost
Miami (FL) under 94.5
78.0%
1.54
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Won
Miami (FL) under 92
70.5%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
+21.1pp
Won
Miami (FL) under 95.5
80.8%
1.54
Bet365
1.55
1xBet
1.53
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Won
Miami (FL) under 97.5
85.8%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Won
Miami (FL) under 93.5
74.9%
1.56
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+19.2pp
Won
Miami (FL) under 92.5
71.6%
1.83
BetVictor
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.82
+19.2pp
Won
Miami (FL) under 99.5
89.9%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Miami (FL) under 98.5
88.0%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Won
Wagner over 51.5
87.9%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Won
Miami (FL) under 101.5
93.0%
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+15.6pp
Won
Miami (FL) under 103.5
95.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
Miami (FL) under 102.5
94.2%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Over 139
76.0%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
Over 141
71.8%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Lost
Over 140
73.9%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Push
Over 141.5
70.3%
1.48
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Lost
Over 140.5
72.4%
1.42
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Lost
Over 138
77.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Over 139.5
74.5%
1.37
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Over 138.5
76.4%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Over 137.5
78.3%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Miami (FL) (regulation)
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Over 135.5
81.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Over 136.5
80.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Over 125.5
93.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Over 130.5
88.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Miami (FL) win
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Over 126.5
92.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Over 127.5
92.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Over 131.5
87.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Over 132.5
86.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Under 172.5
91.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Under 171.5
90.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 75.5
87.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Under 170.5
89.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 76.5
85.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Under 167.5
86.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Under 166.5
84.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 77.5
82.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
Under 165.5
83.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Miami (FL) -11.5
85.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 78.5
80.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
Under 162.5
78.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Under 161.5
76.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-9.4pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 79.5
77.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 80.5
74.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-10.3pp
Won
Under 160.5
74.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-11.3pp
Won
Miami (FL) -13.5
81.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 81.5
70.7%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-12.3pp
Won
Miami (FL) -16.5
73.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-15.3pp
Won
Miami (FL) -14.5
79.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-16.7pp
Won
Wagner under 68.5
70.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-22.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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