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Michigan State vs Arkansas Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 26 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 21:30
Scheduled
Position#26
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game93.0
Allowed / game66.2
vs
Position#110
Record3-1
FormLWLWW
Points / game83.2
Allowed / game67.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Michigan State v Arkansas
26 Nov 2026
MICH v ARKA
upcoming
08 Nov 2025
MICH69
ARKA66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Michigan State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rutgers
#267
W
91-87
91
87
+4
H06/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
80-90
80
90
-10
A08/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
84-88
84
88
-4
H14/03
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
92-67
92
67
+25
H19/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
77-69
77
69
+8
H21/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
63-67
63
67
-4
A28/03
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#270
W
96-59
96
59
+37
H03/11
NCAA
Toledo
#266
W
91-61
91
61
+30
H06/11
NCAA
Duke
#86
W
79-73
79
73
+6
A11/11
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#259
W
106-72
106
72
+34
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
31-30
60-57
41-42
39-48
33-44
51-44
45-25
47-42
36-31
41-38
27-35
36-32
52-24
44-35
48-25
43-36
34-25
45-48
59-44
47-28
159.2Avg total
85.9Scored
73.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)93.066.2159.2+26.8100%
Season at home (3)97.764.0161.7+33.7100%
Season away (1)79.073.0152.0+6.0100%
Last 10 (10)85.973.3159.2+12.670%
Last 5 (5)87.066.4153.4+20.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)78.882.0160.8-3.250%
vs Similar (7)71.669.6141.1+2.057%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)85.568.1153.6+17.589%
This opponent (Arkansas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ArkansasUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma
#154
W
82-79
82
79
+3
H14/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
W
93-90 OT
93
90
+3
H14/03
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
W
86-75
86
75
+11
H15/03
NCAA
Hawaii
#44
W
97-78
97
78
+19
H19/03
NCAA
High Point
#10
W
94-88
94
88
+6
H22/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
88-109
88
109
-21
A27/03
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#473
W
106-61
106
61
+45
H04/11
NCAA
Virginia
#39
L
72-91
72
91
-19
A08/11
NCAA
Robert Morris
#317
W
76-53
76
53
+23
H12/11
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#192
W
79-66
79
66
+13
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
37-39
45-40
37-36
42-43
41-39
45-36
54-36
43-42
43-42
51-46
43-54
45-55
47-28
59-33
27-46
45-45
39-30
37-23
43-27
36-39
166.3Avg total
87.3Scored
79.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)83.267.8151.0+15.575%
Season at home (3)87.060.0147.0+27.0100%
Season away (1)72.091.0163.0-19.00%
Last 10 (10)87.379.0166.3+8.380%
Last 5 (5)84.276.0160.2+8.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)83.298.6181.8-15.420%
vs Similar (12)89.881.8171.6+8.175%
vs Weaker (13)91.376.2167.5+15.292%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +8.1+8.11st half: +3.4+3.42nd half2nd half: +4.5+4.52nd half: +4.6+4.6
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +8.1+8.11st half: +3.4+3.42nd half2nd half: +4.5+4.52nd half: +4.6+4.6
Michigan StateArkansas
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rutgers
#267
W
31-30
31
30
+1
H06/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A08/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H14/03
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
45-25
45
25
+20
H19/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H21/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A28/03
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#270
W
52-24
52
24
+28
H03/11
NCAA
Toledo
#266
W
48-25
48
25
+23
H06/11
NCAA
Duke
#86
W
34-25
34
25
+9
A11/11
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#259
W
59-44
59
44
+15
H14/11
NCAA
73.1Avg total
40.6Scored
32.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.733.571.2+4.257%-
Last 30 at home (18)40.532.172.6+8.472%-
Last 30 away (12)33.535.669.1-2.133%-
Last 10 (10)40.632.573.1+8.170%-
Last 5 (5)44.030.674.6+13.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)34.037.071.0-3.025%-
vs Similar (7)33.434.367.7-0.929%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)40.132.472.5+7.674%-
This opponent (Arkansas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ArkansasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma
#154
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H14/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H14/03
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
W
41-39
41
39
+2
H15/03
NCAA
Hawaii
#44
W
54-36
54
36
+18
H19/03
NCAA
High Point
#10
W
43-42
43
42
+1
H22/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
43-54
43
54
-11
A27/03
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#473
W
47-28
47
28
+19
H04/11
NCAA
Virginia
#39
L
27-46
27
46
-19
A08/11
NCAA
Robert Morris
#317
W
39-30
39
30
+9
H12/11
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#192
W
43-27
43
27
+16
H14/11
NCAA
78.8Avg total
41.1Scored
37.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.538.179.7+3.467%-
Last 30 at home (19)42.635.678.2+6.979%-
Last 30 away (11)39.742.582.2-2.745%-
Last 10 (10)41.137.778.8+3.470%-
Last 5 (5)39.837.076.8+2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)37.648.886.4-11.220%-
vs Similar (12)43.238.081.2+5.267%-
vs Weaker (13)41.534.275.6+7.385%-
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Michigan State wins
0
Arkansas wins
DateGameScore
09/11/25Michigan State v Arkansas69-66
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HNorthern Iowa106-72
11/11/26ADuke79-73
06/11/26HToledo91-61
03/11/26HQuinnipiac96-59
28/03/26AUconn63-67
21/03/26HLouisville77-69
19/03/26HNorth Dakota St92-67
14/03/26HUCLA84-88
08/03/26AMichigan80-90
06/03/26HRutgers91-87
Arkansaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HCentral Arkansas79-66
12/11/26HRobert Morris76-53
08/11/26AVirginia72-91
04/11/26HArkansas-Pine Bluff106-61
27/03/26AArizona88-109
22/03/26HHigh Point94-88
19/03/26HHawaii97-78
15/03/26HVanderbilt86-75
14/03/26HOle Miss93-90 OT
14/03/26HOklahoma82-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Michigan State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game93.097.779.0
Allowed / game66.264.073.0
Point differential+26.8+33.7+6.0
Avg total159.2161.7152.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Arkansas
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWW75%
HomeWWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %75%100%0%
Points / game83.287.072.0
Allowed / game67.860.091.0
Point differential+15.5+27.0-19.0
Avg total151.0147.0163.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
3 Nebraska440100%92.264.2+28.0
4 Michigan State440100%93.066.2+26.8
5 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
10 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
11 Illinois43175%104.571.2+33.2
12 Michigan43175%92.075.5+16.5
13 Purdue43175%78.569.0+9.5
14 Northwestern43175%70.861.8+9.0
15 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
16 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
17 Ohio State42250%81.079.2+1.8
18 Maryland31233%84.380.0+4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas330100%100.057.0+43.0
2 Ole Miss330100%94.056.3+37.7
3 Texas A&M440100%99.267.2+32.0
4 LSU440100%90.859.5+31.2
5 Vanderbilt440100%90.260.2+30.0
6 South Carolina440100%78.856.5+22.2
7 Alabama440100%97.076.0+21.0
8 Florida440100%82.262.5+19.8
9 Tennessee330100%81.061.3+19.7
10 Georgia440100%81.870.2+11.5
11 Mississippi St.43175%87.267.5+19.8
12 Arkansas43175%83.267.8+15.5
13 Oklahoma43175%75.863.8+12.0
14 Kentucky43175%80.275.8+4.5
15 Missouri32167%97.066.0+31.0
16 Auburn32167%78.764.0+14.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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