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Michigan State vs Oregon Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 16 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 21:00
Scheduled
Position#28
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game93.0
Allowed / game66.2
vs
Position#31
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game95.0
Allowed / game68.7
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Michigan State v Oregon
16 Jan 2027
MICH v OREG
upcoming
14 Mar 2025
MICH74
OREG64
08 Feb 2025
MICH86
OREG74
25 Nov 2022
MICH74
OREG70
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Michigan State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Oregon win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rutgers
#267
W
91-87
91
87
+4
H06/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
80-90
80
90
-10
A08/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
84-88
84
88
-4
H14/03
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
92-67
92
67
+25
H19/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
77-69
77
69
+8
H21/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
63-67
63
67
-4
A28/03
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#243
W
96-59
96
59
+37
H03/11
NCAA
Toledo
#262
W
91-61
91
61
+30
H06/11
NCAA
Duke
#87
W
79-73
79
73
+6
A11/11
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#255
W
106-72
106
72
+34
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
31-30
60-57
41-42
39-48
33-44
51-44
45-25
47-42
36-31
41-38
27-35
36-32
52-24
44-35
48-25
43-36
34-25
45-48
59-44
47-28
159.2Avg total
85.9Scored
73.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)93.066.2159.2+26.8100%
Season at home (3)97.764.0161.7+33.7100%
Season away (1)79.073.0152.0+6.0100%
Last 10 (10)85.973.3159.2+12.670%
Last 5 (5)87.066.4153.4+20.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)78.882.0160.8-3.250%
vs Similar ◀ (7)71.669.6141.1+2.057%
vs Weaker (19)85.568.1153.6+17.589%
This opponent (Oregon) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
OregonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota
#235
L
44-61
44
61
-17
H18/02
NCAA
USC
#153
W
71-70
71
70
+1
A21/02
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
W
85-71
85
71
+14
H26/02
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
62-63
62
63
-1
A28/02
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
54-80
54
80
-26
A04/03
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
85-79
85
79
+6
H08/03
NCAA
Maryland
#305
L
60-70
60
70
-10
H10/03
NCAA
Montana
#195
W
87-69
87
69
+18
H03/11
NCAA
East. Washington
#308
W
98-71
98
71
+27
H06/11
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#387
W
100-66
100
66
+34
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
17-22
27-39
35-32
36-38
30-33
55-38
36-29
26-34
21-41
33-39
44-30
41-49
12-33
48-37
40-31
47-38
53-39
45-32
50-28
50-38
144.6Avg total
74.6Scored
70.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)95.068.7163.7+26.3100%
Season at home (3)95.068.7163.7+26.3100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)74.670.0144.6+4.660%
Last 5 (5)86.071.0157.0+15.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)67.676.6144.2-8.917%
vs Similar ◀ (9)75.670.9146.4+4.756%
vs Weaker (3)95.068.7163.7+26.3100%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +8.1+8.11st half: +2.0+2.02nd half2nd half: +4.5+4.52nd half: +2.6+2.6
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +8.1+8.11st half: +2.0+2.02nd half2nd half: +4.5+4.52nd half: +2.6+2.6
Michigan StateOregon
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rutgers
#267
W
31-30
31
30
+1
H06/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A08/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H14/03
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
45-25
45
25
+20
H19/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H21/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A28/03
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#243
W
52-24
52
24
+28
H03/11
NCAA
Toledo
#262
W
48-25
48
25
+23
H06/11
NCAA
Duke
#87
W
34-25
34
25
+9
A11/11
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#255
W
59-44
59
44
+15
H14/11
NCAA
73.1Avg total
40.6Scored
32.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.733.571.2+4.257%-
Last 30 at home (18)40.532.172.6+8.472%-
Last 30 away (12)33.535.669.1-2.133%-
Last 10 (10)40.632.573.1+8.170%-
Last 5 (5)44.030.674.6+13.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)34.037.071.0-3.025%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)33.434.367.7-0.929%-
vs Weaker (19)40.132.472.5+7.674%-
This opponent (Oregon) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
OregonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota
#235
L
17-22
17
22
-5
H18/02
NCAA
USC
#153
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A21/02
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H26/02
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
W
36-29
36
29
+7
A28/02
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
21-41
21
41
-20
A04/03
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
44-30
44
30
+14
H08/03
NCAA
Maryland
#305
L
12-33
12
33
-21
H10/03
NCAA
Montana
#195
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H03/11
NCAA
East. Washington
#308
W
53-39
53
39
+14
H06/11
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#387
W
50-28
50
28
+22
H12/11
NCAA
65.6Avg total
33.8Scored
31.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.434.769.1-0.343%-
Last 30 at home (19)36.333.669.9+2.647%-
Last 30 away (11)31.336.567.8-5.336%-
Last 10 (10)33.831.865.6+2.060%-
Last 5 (5)39.832.272.0+7.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)31.634.966.5-3.422%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)35.834.970.7+0.967%-
vs Weaker (3)47.732.780.3+15.0100%-
This opponent (Michigan State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Michigan State wins
0
Oregon wins
DateGameScore
21/01/26Oregon v Michigan State52-68
14/03/25Michigan State v Oregon74-64
08/02/25Michigan State v Oregon86-74
26/11/22Michigan State v Oregon74-70
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HNorthern Iowa106-72
11/11/26ADuke79-73
06/11/26HToledo91-61
03/11/26HQuinnipiac96-59
28/03/26AUconn63-67
21/03/26HLouisville77-69
19/03/26HNorth Dakota St92-67
14/03/26HUCLA84-88
08/03/26AMichigan80-90
06/03/26HRutgers91-87
Oregonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HMiss. Valley St.100-66
06/11/26HEast. Washington98-71
03/11/26HMontana87-69
10/03/26HMaryland60-70
08/03/26HWashington85-79
04/03/26AIllinois54-80
28/02/26ANorthwestern62-63
26/02/26HWisconsin85-71
21/02/26AUSC71-70
18/02/26HMinnesota44-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Michigan State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game93.097.779.0
Allowed / game66.264.073.0
Point differential+26.8+33.7+6.0
Avg total159.2161.7152.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Oregon
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game95.095.0-
Allowed / game68.768.7-
Point differential+26.3+26.3-
Avg total163.7163.7-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Nebraska330100%89.060.7+28.3
3 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
4 Michigan State440100%93.066.2+26.8
5 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
10 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
11 Illinois43175%104.571.2+33.2
12 Purdue43175%78.569.0+9.5
13 Northwestern43175%70.861.8+9.0
14 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
17 Ohio State42250%81.079.2+1.8
18 Maryland31233%84.380.0+4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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