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Michigan vs William & Mary Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Projected 95-71
Projected total 165.8
Scheduled
Position#163
Record2-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game81.7
Allowed / game74.3
Michigan
USA
Vs
98%
■ MICH 98%■ WILL 2%
Pythia win probability
William & Mary
USA
Position#159
Record2-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game91.3
Allowed / game78.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Michigan hosts William & Mary on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Michigan the clear favourite, rating them 98% to win because of their 2-1 record, 81.7 points scored and 74.3 allowed per game, and their 167th league position versus William & Mary's 2-1 record, 91.3 points scored and 78.0 allowed per game, 158th league position. Michigan has won 2 of 3 home games, scoring 81.7 and allowing 74.3, and has won 4 of 5 recent games, including a 84-70 win over Marquette, a 77-85 loss to Uconn, and a 84-68 win over Oakland. William & Mary has won 3 of 5 recent games, with a 90-95 loss to Florida Atlantic, a 104-73 win over Norfolk State, and an 80-66 win over Bridgewater College. The teams have met once before, with the last meeting ending 84-70 in favour of Michigan. Pythia projects a 95-71 score, a 165.8 total, and gives Michigan a 98% chance to win, William & Mary 2%, and a 48% probability that the total will be over 166.5; the overtime chance is 1%.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Michigan win
97.5%fair 1.03
Best odds1.01
Implied94.7%
Edge+2.9pp
William & Mary win
2.5%fair 40.75
Best odds29.00
Implied5.3%
Edge-2.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MichiganUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Purdue
#31
L
72-80
72
80
-8
H15/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
101-80
101
80
+21
H19/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
95-72
95
72
+23
H21/03
NCAA
Alabama
#48
W
90-77
90
77
+13
H27/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
95-62
95
62
+33
H29/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
W
91-73
91
73
+18
A05/04
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
69-63
69
63
+6
H07/04
NCAA
Oakland
#344
W
84-68
84
68
+16
H02/11
NCAA
Uconn
#30
L
77-85
77
85
-8
H07/11
NCAA
Marquette
#146
W
84-70
84
70
+14
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
38-38
34-42
50-46
51-34
48-39
47-33
47-49
43-28
48-26
47-36
48-32
43-41
33-29
36-34
47-36
37-32
30-43
47-42
35-27
49-43
158.8Avg total
85.8Scored
73.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)81.774.3156.0+7.367%
Season at home (3)81.774.3156.0+7.367%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)85.873.0158.8+12.880%
Last 5 (5)81.071.8152.8+9.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)80.577.5158.0+3.050%
vs Similar (4)83.270.8154.0+12.575%
vs Weaker (24)82.870.9153.7+11.992%
This opponent (William & Mary) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
William & MaryUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Elon
#256
L
78-81
78
81
-3
H14/02
NCAA
Campbell
#222
L
83-84
83
84
-1
A20/02
NCAA
Northeastern
#358
W
84-77
84
77
+7
H27/02
NCAA
N. Carolina A&T
#299
W
91-88
91
88
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Hampton
#276
W
94-85
94
85
+9
H04/03
NCAA
Elon
#256
W
72-62
72
62
+10
H08/03
NCAA
Hofstra
#54
L
61-92
61
92
-31
A09/03
NCAA
Bridgewater College (VA)
#362
W
80-66
80
66
+14
H03/11
NCAA
Norfolk State
#235
W
104-73
104
73
+31
H08/11
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#141
L
90-95
90
95
-5
A12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
36-43
42-38
43-35
40-49
35-32
49-45
46-37
45-51
51-41
43-44
35-31
37-31
33-50
28-42
37-30
43-36
54-35
50-38
42-39
48-56
164.0Avg total
83.7Scored
80.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)91.378.0169.3+13.367%
Season at home (2)92.069.5161.5+22.5100%
Season away (1)90.095.0185.0-5.00%
Last 10 (10)83.780.3164.0+3.460%
Last 5 (5)81.477.6159.0+3.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (12)82.484.2166.6-1.850%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)85.173.4158.4+11.771%
This opponent (Michigan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 163
Over 163
56.9%
@ 1.57-2.0pp
Under 163
43.1%
@ 2.25+2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.57
Under
Bet365
2.25
Over/Under 168 · main line
Over 168
44.2%
@ 2.05-5.1pp
Under 168
55.8%
@ 1.88+5.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.81
1xBet
1.72
Bet365
1.71
Over/Under 173
Over 173
32.2%
@ 2.80-0.8pp
Under 173
67.8%
@ 1.38+0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.80
Under
Bet365
1.38

📊 3. Team Totals

Michigan total 94
Over 94
53.0%
Under 94
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Michigan total 98 · main line
Over 98
36.4%
@ 1.88-12.8pp
Under 98
63.6%
@ 1.85+12.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Michigan total 101.5
Over 101.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under 101.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.42
William & Mary total 64
Over 64
76.8%
Under 64
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
William & Mary total 68 · main line
Over 68
62.4%
@ 1.87+12.9pp
Under 68
37.6%
@ 1.85-12.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
William & Mary total 72
Over 72
45.8%
Under 72
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Michigan -29.5
MICH -29.5
no forecast
@ 2.34
WILL +29.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Pinnacle
2.34
1xBet
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Betano
1.98
SBO
1.93
WILL
Betano
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
SBO
1.78
Marathon Be
1.72
Bet365
1.66
Spread Michigan -26.5 · main line
MICH -26.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
WILL +26.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
SBO
1.81
WILL
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.90
BetVictor
1.88
Spread Michigan -23.5
MICH -23.5
50.4%
@ 1.52-12.1pp
WILL +23.5
49.6%
@ 2.55+12.1pp
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.44
WILL
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.40

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +5.9+5.91st half: +3.9+3.92nd half2nd half: +6.9+6.92nd half: -0.5-0.5
-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +5.9+5.91st half: +3.9+3.92nd half2nd half: +6.9+6.92nd half: -0.5-0.5
MichiganWilliam & Mary
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
MichiganLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Purdue
#31
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H15/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
50-46
50
46
+4
H19/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H21/03
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H27/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
48-26
48
26
+22
H29/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
W
48-32
48
32
+16
A05/04
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
33-29
33
29
+4
H07/04
NCAA
Oakland
#344
W
47-36
47
36
+11
H02/11
NCAA
Uconn
#30
L
30-43
30
43
-13
H07/11
NCAA
Marquette
#146
W
35-27
35
27
+8
H12/11
NCAA
78.9Avg total
42.4Scored
36.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 80
Last 30 (30)40.334.674.9+5.770%23%
Last 30 at home (19)40.635.476.1+5.274%32%
Last 30 away (11)39.733.373.0+6.564%9%
Last 10 (10)42.436.578.9+5.970%40%
Last 5 (5)38.633.472.0+5.280%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)32.535.067.5-2.550%0%
vs Similar (4)41.834.276.0+7.575%25%
vs Weaker (24)40.734.775.4+6.071%25%
This opponent (William & Mary) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
William & MaryLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Elon
#256
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H14/02
NCAA
Campbell
#222
W
43-35
43
35
+8
A20/02
NCAA
Northeastern
#358
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H27/02
NCAA
N. Carolina A&T
#299
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A28/02
NCAA
Hampton
#276
W
51-41
51
41
+10
H04/03
NCAA
Elon
#256
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H08/03
NCAA
Hofstra
#54
L
33-50
33
50
-17
A09/03
NCAA
Bridgewater College (VA)
#362
W
37-30
37
30
+7
H03/11
NCAA
Norfolk State
#235
W
54-35
54
35
+19
H08/11
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#141
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A12/11
NCAA
78.5Avg total
41.2Scored
37.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 80
Last 30 (30)40.937.077.9+3.973%40%
Last 30 at home (15)41.735.377.0+6.587%33%
Last 30 away (15)40.138.778.7+1.460%47%
Last 10 (10)41.237.378.5+3.980%50%
Last 5 (5)40.237.077.2+3.280%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (12)40.541.181.6-0.650%42%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)41.434.575.9+6.988%41%
This opponent (Michigan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
MICH win
no forecast
@ 1.04
WILL win
no forecast
@ 14.00
1st half Spread Michigan -15 · main line
MICH -15
no forecast
@ 1.92
WILL +15
no forecast
@ 1.90
1st half Over/Under 80 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
Michigan 1st half total 48 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.89
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
William & Mary 1st half total 33 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half: MICH + total 79.5
MICH & over
no forecast
@ 1.86
MICH & under
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half: Draw + total 79.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 41.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 41.00
1st half: WILL + total 79.5
WILL & over
no forecast
@ 31.00
WILL & under
no forecast
@ 31.00
1st half Over/Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.75
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Michigan -16
MICH -16
no forecast
@ 2.10
WILL +16
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Michigan -14
MICH -14
no forecast
@ 1.83
WILL +14
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Spread Michigan -17
MICH -17
no forecast
@ 2.14
WILL +17
no forecast
@ 1.82
1st half Spread Michigan -13
MICH -13
no forecast
@ 1.62
WILL +13
no forecast
@ 2.32
1st half Over/Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under
no forecast
@ 2.47
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
MICH
no forecast
@ 1.04
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
WILL
no forecast
@ 16.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MICH win + total 167.5
🔒 Pro
WILL win + total 167.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MICH leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: WILL leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
William & Mary over 64.574.4%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+9.7pp
William & Mary over 65.571.1%1.45
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.43		---+7.8pp
William & Mary over 63.577.5%1.31
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.29		---+7.6pp
Under 17572.2%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+2.8pp
Under 175.572.8%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+2.4pp
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■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 46 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Michigan wins
0
William & Mary wins
No previous meetings.
Michiganlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HMarquette84-70
07/11/26HUconn77-85
02/11/26HOakland84-68
07/04/26HUconn69-63
05/04/26AArizona91-73
29/03/26HTennessee95-62
27/03/26HAlabama90-77
21/03/26HSt. Louis Billikens95-72
19/03/26HHoward101-80
15/03/26HPurdue72-80
William & Marylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AFlorida Atlantic90-95
08/11/26HNorfolk State104-73
03/11/26HBridgewater College (VA)80-66
09/03/26AHofstra61-92
08/03/26HElon72-62
04/03/26HHampton94-85
28/02/26AN. Carolina A&T91-88
27/02/26HNortheastern84-77
20/02/26ACampbell83-84
14/02/26HElon78-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Michigan
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeWLW67%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %67%67%-
Points / game81.781.7-
Allowed / game74.374.3-
Point differential+7.3+7.3-
Avg total156.0156.0-
Over 1680%0%-
Win by 10+67%67%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
William & Mary
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game91.392.090.0
Allowed / game78.069.595.0
Point differential+13.3+22.5-5.0
Avg total169.3161.5185.0
Over 16867%50%100%
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Nebraska330100%89.060.7+28.3
3 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
4 Michigan State440100%93.066.2+26.8
5 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
10 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
11 Illinois43175%104.571.2+33.2
12 Purdue43175%78.569.0+9.5
13 Northwestern43175%70.861.8+9.0
14 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
17 Ohio State42250%81.079.2+1.8
18 Maryland31233%84.380.0+4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Coastal Athletic Association conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Charleston330100%104.767.3+37.3
2 NC Wilmington440100%92.563.5+29.0
3 William & Mary32167%91.378.0+13.3
4 Towson53260%70.260.8+9.4
5 N. Carolina A&T42250%83.270.2+13.0
6 Hofstra42250%70.063.8+6.2
7 Elon42250%69.570.5-1.0
8 Northeastern42250%78.883.2-4.5
9 Drexel42250%66.873.2-6.5
10 Stony Brook31233%73.764.7+9.0
11 Hampton41325%59.866.0-6.2
12 Campbell41325%70.278.8-8.5
13 Monmouth41325%61.079.2-18.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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