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Mississippi St. vs Jackson State Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 10 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Projected 92-66
Projected total 158.2
Final 98-57
51-29 47-28
Position#21
Record2-0
FormLLLWW
Points / game94.0
Allowed / game66.0
Mississippi St. 🏆
USA
Vs
98%
■ MISS 98%■ JACK 2%
Pythia win probability
Jackson State
USA
Position#312
Record1-1
FormWWLLW
Points / game64.5
Allowed / game80.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Mississippi St. v Jackson State
09 Nov 2026
MISS98
JACK57
08 Dec 2020
MISS82
JACK59
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Mississippi St. faces Jackson State in an NCAA matchup on 9 November 2026, with the model rating Mississippi St. as the clear favourite at 98% versus 2% for Jackson State, reflecting Mississippi St.'s undefeated 2-0 record, 94.0 points per game and 66.0 allowed, and Jackson State's 1-1 record, 64.5 points per game and 80.5 allowed. Mississippi St. has won both games of the season, averaging 94.0 points and conceding 66.0, while Jackson State has split its two games, scoring 64.5 and allowing 80.5. Mississippi St.'s home record is 2-0, with a 94.0 points per game average, and its last five games include two wins and three losses, notably a 106-88 win over Tennessee Tech and a 82-44 win over Northwestern St. Jackson State's road record is 1-1, with 64.5 points per game and 80.5 allowed, and its last five games include three wins and two losses, highlighted by a 87-85 win over Tulane. The teams have met twice, Mississippi St. winning both times, most recently 69-59 on 14 December 2022. The Pythia model projects a 92-66 score, 158.2 total points, a home line of -22.5 with a 63% chance of covering, and a 49% probability of the over on the 158.5 line, with no overtime expected. The game ends with Mississippi St. holding a 2-0 advantage in the series.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mississippi St. winWon
98.4%fair 1.02
Best odds1.01
Implied95.4%
Edge+3.0pp
Jackson State winLost
1.6%fair 62.58
Best odds26.00
Implied4.6%
Edge-3.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Mississippi St.USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ole Miss
#259
W
90-78
90
78
+12
A14/02
NCAA
Auburn
#188
W
91-85
91
85
+6
H19/02
NCAA
South Carolina
#278
L
89-97
89
97
-8
A21/02
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
75-100
75
100
-25
A26/02
NCAA
Missouri
#111
L
64-88
64
88
-24
H28/02
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
74-108
74
108
-34
A04/03
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
96-102
96
102
-6
H07/03
NCAA
Auburn
#188
L
61-79
61
79
-18
A11/03
NCAA
Tennessee Tech
#156
W
106-88
106
88
+18
H03/11
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#323
W
82-44
82
44
+38
H06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
47-28
43-50
49-33
42-52
39-46
50-51
33-63
42-37
23-54
41-34
35-47
39-61
47-42
49-60
33-30
28-49
53-37
53-51
49-27
33-17
169.7Avg total
82.8Scored
86.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)94.066.0160.0+28.0100%
Season at home (2)94.066.0160.0+28.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)82.886.9169.7-4.140%
Last 5 (5)83.884.2168.0-0.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)75.385.2160.6-9.925%
vs Similar (8)82.473.8156.1+8.675%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)94.066.0160.0+28.0100%
This opponent (Jackson State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Jackson StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bethune-Cookman
#185
W
91-86
91
86
+5
H17/02
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
L
65-83
65
83
-18
A21/02
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
76-85 OT
76
85
-9
A27/02
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
L
57-82
57
82
-25
A28/02
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
81-78
81
78
+3
H04/03
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
85-77
85
77
+8
H06/03
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
W
68-65
68
65
+3
H11/03
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
L
60-70
60
70
-10
A12/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#77
L
42-76
42
76
-34
A03/11
NCAA
Tulane
#171
W
87-85
87
85
+2
A06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-37
52-49
34-34
31-49
33-31
42-44
30-37
27-45
44-36
37-42
36-41
49-36
28-27
40-38
34-33
26-37
18-38
24-38
38-42
49-43
149.9Avg total
71.2Scored
78.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)64.580.5145.0-16.050%
Season at homeno games
Season away (2)64.580.5145.0-16.050%
Last 10 (10)71.278.7149.9-7.550%
Last 5 (5)68.474.6143.0-6.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)69.580.2149.7-10.638%
vs Similar (2)77.084.5161.5-7.550%
vs Weaker (2)91.079.0170.0+12.0100%
This opponent (Mississippi St.) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Over 153.5
Over 153.5
61.4%
@ 1.47-1.3pp
Under 153.5
38.6%
@ 2.47+1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.47
Over/Under 158.5 · main lineActual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
49.1%
@ 1.95-1.3pp
Under 158.5
50.9%
@ 1.95+1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.95
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
Marathon Be
1.78
Over/Under 163.5Actual: Under 163.5
Over 163.5
36.9%
@ 2.40-1.5pp
Under 163.5
63.1%
@ 1.50+1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50

📊 3. Team Totals

Mississippi St. total 87Actual: Mississippi St. over 87
Over 87
70.7%
Under 87
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mississippi St. total 91 · main lineActual: Mississippi St. over 91
Over 91
54.9%
@ 1.86+5.1pp
Under 91
45.1%
@ 1.85-5.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Mississippi St. total 95Actual: Mississippi St. over 95
Over 95
38.3%
Under 95
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jackson State total 63Actual: Jackson State under 63
Over 63
62.2%
Under 63
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jackson State total 67 · main lineActual: Jackson State under 67
Over 67
45.6%
@ 1.85-4.7pp
Under 67
54.4%
@ 1.87+4.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Jackson State total 71Actual: Jackson State under 71
Over 71
29.9%
Under 71
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Mississippi St. -27.5Actual: Mississippi St. -27.5
MISS -27.5
no forecast
@ 2.52
JACK +27.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
Best 5 market prices
MISS
Betano
2.52
JACK
Betano
1.45
Spread Mississippi St. -24 · main lineActual: Mississippi St. -24
MISS -24
58.0%
@ 1.94+8.6pp
JACK +24
42.0%
@ 1.89-8.6pp
Best 5 market prices
MISS
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathon Be
1.86
JACK
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread Mississippi St. -21Actual: Mississippi St. -21
MISS -21
68.3%
JACK +21
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
MISS
No market prices yet.
JACK
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +0.1+0.11st half: -2.2-2.22nd half2nd half: -4.2-4.22nd half: -4.4-4.4
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +0.1+0.11st half: -2.2-2.22nd half2nd half: -4.2-4.22nd half: -4.4-4.4
Mississippi St.Jackson State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Mississippi St.Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ole Miss
#259
W
47-28
47
28
+19
A14/02
NCAA
Auburn
#188
W
49-33
49
33
+16
H19/02
NCAA
South Carolina
#278
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A21/02
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
33-63
33
63
-30
A26/02
NCAA
Missouri
#111
L
23-54
23
54
-31
H28/02
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
35-47
35
47
-12
A04/03
NCAA
Georgia
#68
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H07/03
NCAA
Auburn
#188
W
33-30
33
30
+3
A11/03
NCAA
Tennessee Tech
#156
W
53-37
53
37
+16
H03/11
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#323
W
49-27
49
27
+22
H06/11
NCAA
81.5Avg total
40.8Scored
40.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75.5
Last 30 (30)37.037.974.8-0.947%57%
Last 30 at home (17)36.236.472.5-0.253%53%
Last 30 away (13)38.039.877.8-1.838%62%
Last 10 (10)40.840.781.5+0.160%80%
Last 5 (5)43.436.680.0+6.880%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)35.540.375.8-4.835%65%
vs Similar (8)37.033.270.2+3.862%25%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)51.032.083.0+19.0100%100%
This opponent (Jackson State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Jackson StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bethune-Cookman
#185
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H17/02
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A21/02
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
W
33-31
33
31
+2
A27/02
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
L
30-37
30
37
-7
A28/02
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H04/03
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
L
36-41
36
41
-5
H06/03
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
W
28-27
28
27
+1
H11/03
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A12/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#77
L
18-38
18
38
-20
A03/11
NCAA
Tulane
#171
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A06/11
NCAA
69.0Avg total
33.4Scored
35.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75.5
Last 30 (30)34.137.271.3-3.143%43%
Last 30 at home (13)37.636.273.8+1.554%54%
Last 30 away (17)31.438.069.4-6.635%35%
Last 10 (10)33.435.669.0-2.250%40%
Last 5 (5)30.836.267.0-5.440%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)32.937.270.0-4.342%38%
vs Similar (2)43.535.579.0+8.050%50%
vs Weaker (2)40.539.580.0+1.050%100%
This opponent (Mississippi St.) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Mississippi St. win
MISS win
no forecast
@ 1.05
JACK win
no forecast
@ 10.00
1st half Spread Mississippi St. -14 · main lineActual: Mississippi St. -14
MISS -14
no forecast
@ 1.85
JACK +14
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 75.5 · main lineActual: Over 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Mississippi St. 1st half total 45 · main lineActual: Mississippi St. over 45
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Jackson State 1st half total 31 · main lineActual: Jackson State under 31
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 77Actual: Over 77
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half Spread Mississippi St. -13Actual: Mississippi St. -13
MISS -13
no forecast
@ 1.83
JACK +13
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.53
Under
no forecast
@ 2.30
1st half Spread Mississippi St. -15.5Actual: Mississippi St. -15.5
MISS -15.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
JACK +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Over 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.18
Under
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.65
1st half Spread Mississippi St. -16.5Actual: Mississippi St. -16.5
MISS -16.5
no forecast
@ 2.52
JACK +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread Mississippi St. -11.5Actual: Mississippi St. -11.5
MISS -11.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
JACK +11.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 80.5Actual: Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.57
Under
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread Mississippi St. -10.5Actual: Mississippi St. -10.5
MISS -10.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
JACK +10.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Mississippi St. (regulation)
MISS
no forecast
@ 1.06
Draw
no forecast
@ 34.00
JACK
no forecast
@ 14.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MISS win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
JACK win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MISS leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Mississippi St. -18.575.1%1.45
Betano
1.45		----+11.7ppWon
Mississippi St. -17.577.8%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+11.6ppWon
Mississippi St. -19.572.3%1.52
Betano
1.52		----+11.6ppWon
Mississippi St. -16.580.3%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+11.0ppWon
Mississippi St. -15.582.6%1.29
Betano
1.29		----+11.0ppWon
Mississippi St. over 84.578.1%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+9.8ppWon
Mississippi St. (regulation)98.1%1.02
Betano
1.02		----+8.3ppWon
Jackson State under 71.571.2%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+7.4ppWon
Jackson State under 72.574.5%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+7.3ppWon
Mississippi St. over 86.571.7%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+6.6ppWon
Mississippi St. over 85.575.0%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+6.6ppWon
Mississippi St. win98.4%1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01		--+3.0ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Mississippi St. wins
0
Jackson State wins
DateGameScore
15/12/22Jackson State v Mississippi St.59-69
09/12/20Mississippi St. v Jackson State82-59
Mississippi St.last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26HNorthwestern St.82-44
03/11/26HTennessee Tech106-88
11/03/26AAuburn61-79
07/03/26HGeorgia96-102
04/03/26AFlorida74-108
28/02/26HMissouri64-88
26/02/26AAlabama75-100
21/02/26ASouth Carolina89-97
19/02/26HAuburn91-85
14/02/26AOle Miss90-78
Jackson Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26ATulane87-85
03/11/26ATexas Tech42-76
12/03/26AFlorida A&M60-70
11/03/26HGrambling St.68-65
06/03/26HMiss. Valley St.85-77
04/03/26HArkansas-Pine Bluff81-78
28/02/26ATexas Southern57-82
27/02/26APrairie View A&M76-85 OT
21/02/26AAlcorn State65-83
17/02/26HBethune-Cookman91-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mississippi St.
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game94.094.0-
Allowed / game66.066.0-
Point differential+28.0+28.0-
Avg total160.0160.0-
Over 158.550%50%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Jackson State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLW50%
Home--
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games2-2
Win %50%-50%
Points / game64.5-64.5
Allowed / game80.5-80.5
Point differential-16.0--16.0
Avg total145.0-145.0
Over 158.550%-50%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas330100%100.057.0+43.0
2 LSU220100%96.054.0+42.0
3 Ole Miss220100%95.559.0+36.5
4 Vanderbilt220100%83.549.0+34.5
5 Texas A&M220100%100.566.5+34.0
6 Auburn110100%92.059.0+33.0
7 Mississippi St.220100%94.066.0+28.0
8 Tennessee220100%80.053.0+27.0
9 Florida220100%82.562.0+20.5
10 Alabama220100%98.580.0+18.5
11 Kentucky220100%87.068.5+18.5
12 South Carolina220100%79.561.5+18.0
13 Georgia330100%83.070.3+12.7
14 Missouri21150%97.570.0+27.5
15 Arkansas21150%89.076.0+13.0
16 Oklahoma21150%74.062.5+11.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southwestern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alabama A&M Bulldogs220100%96.552.0+44.5
2 Prairie View A&M32167%84.074.3+9.7
3 Florida A&M21150%91.072.0+19.0
4 Grambling St.21150%75.590.0-14.5
5 Jackson State21150%64.580.5-16.0
6 Bethune-Cookman3030%69.784.7-15.0
7 Alabama State2020%71.588.0-16.5
8 Southern Univ.3030%64.788.7-24.0
9 Alcorn State2020%70.596.5-26.0
10 Miss. Valley St.1010%57.084.0-27.0
11 Texas Southern2020%65.097.5-32.5
12 Arkansas-Pine Bluff2020%57.0107.5-50.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Mississippi St.514798
Jackson State292857
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