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Missouri State vs Drake Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 20:00
Projected 78-70
Projected total 147.6
Scheduled
Position#34
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game85.3
Allowed / game61.3
Vs
77%
23%
■ MISS 77%■ DRAK 23%
Pythia win probability
Position#38
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game85.7
Allowed / game62.7
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Missouri State v Drake
21 Nov 2026
MISS v DRAK
upcoming
25 Jan 2025
MISS62
DRAK69
24 Jan 2024
MISS83
DRAK80
01 Jan 2023
MISS52
DRAK49
02 Jan 2022
MISS61
DRAK56
27 Jan 2021
MISS73
DRAK78
26 Jan 2021
MISS61
DRAK68
12 Feb 2020
MISS97
DRAK62
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Missouri State host Drake in the NCAA. Pythia makes Missouri State the favourite at 77% and projects 78-70, about 148 points in all. Overtime chance: 4%. Missouri State are 3-0 this season (85.3 scored, 61.3 allowed a game), form WLWWW; Drake are 3-0 this season (85.7 scored, 62.7 allowed a game), form WLWWW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Missouri State win
76.9%fair 1.30
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Drake win
23.1%fair 4.32
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
70-72
70
72
-2
A27/02
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
L
81-86
81
86
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
W
87-74
87
74
+13
H06/03
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
L
63-75
63
75
-12
H07/03
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
75-72
75
72
+3
A10/03
NCAA
Liberty
#26
W
77-69
77
69
+8
A11/03
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
66-69
66
69
-3
A13/03
NCAA
Lincoln Mo.
#408
W
88-60
88
60
+28
H04/11
NCAA
Truman State
#375
W
79-62
79
62
+17
H07/11
NCAA
Newman Jets
#403
W
89-62
89
62
+27
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
38-37
32-35
34-43
47-43
43-38
44-36
27-37
36-38
31-36
44-36
33-37
44-32
27-30
39-39
49-26
39-34
34-29
45-33
41-29
48-33
147.6Avg total
77.5Scored
70.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)85.361.3146.7+24.0100%
Season at home (3)85.361.3146.7+24.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)77.570.1147.6+7.460%
Last 5 (5)79.864.4144.2+15.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)78.084.7162.7-6.714%
vs Similar ◀ (15)74.574.9149.4-0.347%
vs Weaker (5)66.458.6125.0+7.880%
This opponent (Drake) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DrakeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Iowa
#88
L
62-86
62
86
-24
A15/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
61-66
61
66
-5
H19/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
71-74
71
74
-3
A26/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
53-75
53
75
-22
H01/03
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
67-63
67
63
+4
A05/03
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
100-79
100
79
+21
A06/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
51-72
51
72
-21
A07/03
NCAA
Central College
#494
W
101-48
101
48
+53
H05/11
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#406
W
75-68
75
68
+7
H08/11
NCAA
South Dakota Coyotes
#333
W
81-72
81
72
+9
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
29-38
33-48
36-31
25-35
37-36
34-38
24-39
29-36
27-31
40-32
48-41
52-38
27-34
24-38
50-22
51-26
33-27
42-41
30-29
51-43
142.5Avg total
72.2Scored
70.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)85.762.7148.3+23.0100%
Season at home (3)85.762.7148.3+23.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)72.270.3142.5+1.950%
Last 5 (5)81.667.8149.4+13.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)72.081.6153.6-9.68%
vs Similar ◀ (12)74.876.3151.1-1.650%
vs Weaker (5)82.468.0150.4+14.4100%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146
Over 146
53.4%
Under 146
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 151
Over 151
41.0%
Under 151
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 156
Over 156
29.5%
Under 156
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Missouri State total 80.5
Over 80.5
40.0%
Under 80.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Missouri State total 84.5
Over 84.5
25.6%
Under 84.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Missouri State total 88.5
Over 88.5
14.6%
Under 88.5
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drake total 62
Over 62
77.8%
Under 62
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drake total 66
Over 66
63.9%
Under 66
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drake total 70
Over 70
47.9%
Under 70
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Missouri State -3
MISS -3
70.0%
DRAK +3
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
MISS
No market prices yet.
DRAK
No market prices yet.
Spread Missouri State 0
MISS 0
76.9%
DRAK 0
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
MISS
No market prices yet.
DRAK
No market prices yet.
Spread Missouri State +3
MISS +3
83.4%
DRAK -3
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
MISS
No market prices yet.
DRAK
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +1.5+1.51st half: +1.3+1.32nd half2nd half: +5.9+5.92nd half: +0.6+0.6
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +1.5+1.51st half: +1.3+1.32nd half2nd half: +5.9+5.92nd half: +0.6+0.6
Missouri StateDrake
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Tech
#131
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A27/02
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A28/02
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H06/03
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
L
27-37
27
37
-10
H07/03
NCAA
Florida International
#232
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A10/03
NCAA
Liberty
#26
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A11/03
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
27-30
27
30
-3
A13/03
NCAA
Lincoln Mo.
#408
W
49-26
49
26
+23
H04/11
NCAA
Truman State
#375
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H07/11
NCAA
Newman Jets
#403
W
41-29
41
29
+12
H11/11
NCAA
69.9Avg total
35.7Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.333.968.2+0.443%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.232.269.4+5.067%-
Last 30 away (15)31.435.566.9-4.120%-
Last 10 (10)35.734.269.9+1.550%-
Last 5 (5)36.830.267.0+6.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)34.442.076.4-7.60%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)34.133.968.0+0.347%-
vs Weaker (5)30.426.056.4+4.460%-
This opponent (Drake) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DrakeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Iowa
#88
L
29-38
29
38
-9
A15/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H19/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A26/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
24-39
24
39
-15
H01/03
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
27-31
27
31
-4
A05/03
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
48-41
48
41
+7
A06/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A07/03
NCAA
Central College
#494
W
50-22
50
22
+28
H05/11
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#406
W
33-27
33
27
+6
H08/11
NCAA
South Dakota Coyotes
#333
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H14/11
NCAA
66.9Avg total
34.1Scored
32.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.335.770.0-1.443%-
Last 30 at home (16)36.934.771.6+2.250%-
Last 30 away (14)31.336.968.1-5.636%-
Last 10 (10)34.132.866.9+1.360%-
Last 5 (5)37.630.668.2+7.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)33.939.072.9-5.117%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)33.036.269.2-3.250%-
vs Weaker (5)35.229.464.6+5.880%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Missouri State wins
5
Drake wins
DateGameScore
02/03/25Drake v Missouri State68-60 OT
25/01/25Missouri State v Drake62-69 OT
25/01/24Missouri State v Drake83-80 OT
02/12/23Drake v Missouri State74-57
19/01/23Drake v Missouri State62-65 OT
01/01/23Missouri State v Drake52-49
10/02/22Drake v Missouri State62-66
03/01/22Missouri State v Drake61-56
06/03/21Drake v Missouri State71-69
28/01/21Missouri State v Drake73-78
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HNewman Jets89-62
07/11/26HTruman State79-62
04/11/26HLincoln Mo.88-60
13/03/26ALouisiana Tech66-69
11/03/26ALiberty77-69
10/03/26AFlorida International75-72
07/03/26HMiddle Tenn. St.63-75
06/03/26HWestern Kentucky87-74
28/02/26ASam Houston St.81-86
27/02/26ALouisiana Tech70-72
Drakelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HSouth Dakota Coyotes81-72
08/11/26HSouthern Univ.75-68
05/11/26HCentral College101-48
07/03/26AIllinois (Chi.)51-72
06/03/26ABelmont100-79
05/03/26ASouthern Illinois67-63
01/03/26HNorthern Iowa53-75
26/02/26AValparaiso71-74
19/02/26HSouthern Illinois61-66
15/02/26ANorthern Iowa62-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Missouri State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game85.385.3-
Allowed / game61.361.3-
Point differential+24.0+24.0-
Avg total146.7146.7-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Drake
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game85.785.7-
Allowed / game62.762.7-
Point differential+23.0+23.0-
Avg total148.3148.3-
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%33%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Kennesaw State440100%95.564.8+30.8
2 Missouri State330100%85.361.3+24.0
3 Florida International330100%91.771.0+20.7
4 Western Kentucky43175%84.263.5+20.8
5 Middle Tenn. St.43175%80.876.2+4.5
6 Liberty32167%81.364.0+17.3
7 UTEP32167%71.767.3+4.3
8 Louisiana Tech42250%69.863.2+6.5
9 Jacksonville State42250%80.075.5+4.5
10 Sam Houston St.42250%86.885.0+1.8
11 Delaware31233%76.762.7+14.0
12 New Mexico State31233%66.378.3-12.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State440100%95.067.5+27.5
2 Drake330100%85.762.7+23.0
3 Illinois (Chi.)43175%79.564.8+14.8
4 Belmont43175%73.562.2+11.2
5 Southern Illinois32167%85.070.0+15.0
6 Valparaiso32167%77.373.0+4.3
7 Indiana State42250%80.265.8+14.5
8 Evansville42250%76.076.2-0.2
9 Bradley52340%59.856.4+3.4
10 Northern Iowa52340%85.286.0-0.8
11 Illinois State41325%81.275.8+5.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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