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Missouri State vs Illinois (Chi.) Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 21 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 20:00
Scheduled
Position#32
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game85.3
Allowed / game61.3
vs
Position#111
Record3-1
FormLWWWL
Points / game79.5
Allowed / game64.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Missouri State v Illinois (Chi.)
21 Dec 2026
MISS v ILLI
upcoming
07 Jan 2025
MISS63
ILLI80
03 Mar 2024
MISS69
ILLI59
02 Mar 2023
MISS74
ILLI57
24 Jan 2023
MISS63
ILLI59
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Missouri State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Illinois (Chi.) win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
70-72
70
72
-2
A27/02
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
L
81-86
81
86
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
W
87-74
87
74
+13
H06/03
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
L
63-75
63
75
-12
H07/03
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
75-72
75
72
+3
A10/03
NCAA
Liberty
#26
W
77-69
77
69
+8
A11/03
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
66-69
66
69
-3
A13/03
NCAA
Lincoln Mo.
#408
W
88-60
88
60
+28
H04/11
NCAA
Truman State
#375
W
79-62
79
62
+17
H07/11
NCAA
Newman Jets
#403
W
89-62
89
62
+27
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
38-37
32-35
34-43
47-43
43-38
44-36
27-37
36-38
31-36
44-36
33-37
44-32
27-30
39-39
49-26
39-34
34-29
45-33
41-29
48-33
147.6Avg total
77.5Scored
70.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)85.361.3146.7+24.0100%
Season at home (3)85.361.3146.7+24.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)77.570.1147.6+7.460%
Last 5 (5)79.864.4144.2+15.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)78.084.7162.7-6.714%
vs Similar (15)74.574.9149.4-0.347%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)66.458.6125.0+7.880%
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois (Chi.)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Valparaiso
#170
L
67-71
67
71
-4
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
93-86 OT
93
86
+7
H25/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
63-79
63
79
-16
A01/03
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
92-79
92
79
+13
A06/03
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
72-51
72
51
+21
H07/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
69-84
69
84
-15
H08/03
NCAA
St. Francis (ILL)
#485
W
96-47
96
47
+49
H02/11
NCAA
Robert Morris
#405
W
79-56
79
56
+23
H07/11
NCAA
NC Greensboro
#201
W
82-72
82
72
+10
H10/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#106
L
61-84
61
84
-23
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
29-31
38-40
39-28
33-44
31-35
32-44
50-32
42-47
34-27
38-24
41-48
28-36
51-31
45-16
30-32
49-24
33-32
49-40
24-42
37-42
148.3Avg total
77.4Scored
70.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)79.564.8144.2+14.875%
Season at home (3)85.758.3144.0+27.3100%
Season away (1)61.084.0145.0-23.00%
Last 10 (10)77.470.9148.3+6.560%
Last 5 (5)77.468.6146.0+8.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)66.080.0146.0-14.00%
vs Similar (15)73.671.9145.5+1.753%
vs Weaker (13)76.265.6141.8+10.569%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +1.5+1.51st half: +2.4+2.42nd half2nd half: +5.9+5.92nd half: +3.4+3.4
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +1.5+1.51st half: +2.4+2.42nd half2nd half: +5.9+5.92nd half: +3.4+3.4
Missouri StateIllinois (Chi.)
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Tech
#131
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A27/02
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A28/02
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H06/03
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
L
27-37
27
37
-10
H07/03
NCAA
Florida International
#232
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A10/03
NCAA
Liberty
#26
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A11/03
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
27-30
27
30
-3
A13/03
NCAA
Lincoln Mo.
#408
W
49-26
49
26
+23
H04/11
NCAA
Truman State
#375
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H07/11
NCAA
Newman Jets
#403
W
41-29
41
29
+12
H11/11
NCAA
69.9Avg total
35.7Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.333.968.2+0.443%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.232.269.4+5.067%-
Last 30 away (15)31.435.566.9-4.120%-
Last 10 (10)35.734.269.9+1.550%-
Last 5 (5)36.830.267.0+6.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)34.442.076.4-7.60%-
vs Similar (15)34.133.968.0+0.347%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)30.426.056.4+4.460%-
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois (Chi.)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Valparaiso
#170
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H25/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
31-35
31
35
-4
A01/03
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
50-32
50
32
+18
A06/03
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
34-27
34
27
+7
H07/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
41-48
41
48
-7
H08/03
NCAA
St. Francis (ILL)
#485
W
51-31
51
31
+20
H02/11
NCAA
Robert Morris
#405
L
30-32
30
32
-2
H07/11
NCAA
NC Greensboro
#201
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H10/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#106
L
24-42
24
42
-18
A14/11
NCAA
70.0Avg total
36.2Scored
33.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.231.066.1+4.267%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.829.465.2+6.475%-
Last 30 away (14)34.432.767.1+1.757%-
Last 10 (10)36.233.870.0+2.450%-
Last 5 (5)35.837.072.8-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)32.035.067.0-3.00%-
vs Similar (15)33.932.366.2+1.560%-
vs Weaker (13)35.729.164.8+6.677%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Missouri State wins
2
Illinois (Chi.) wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HNewman Jets89-62
07/11/26HTruman State79-62
04/11/26HLincoln Mo.88-60
13/03/26ALouisiana Tech66-69
11/03/26ALiberty77-69
10/03/26AFlorida International75-72
07/03/26HMiddle Tenn. St.63-75
06/03/26HWestern Kentucky87-74
28/02/26ASam Houston St.81-86
27/02/26ALouisiana Tech70-72
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ASt. Marys (CA)61-84
10/11/26HNC Greensboro82-72
07/11/26HRobert Morris79-56
02/11/26HSt. Francis (ILL)96-47
08/03/26HNorthern Iowa69-84
07/03/26HDrake72-51
06/03/26AMurray State92-79
01/03/26AIndiana State63-79
25/02/26HBradley93-86 OT
21/02/26HValparaiso67-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Missouri State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game85.385.3-
Allowed / game61.361.3-
Point differential+24.0+24.0-
Avg total146.7146.7-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Illinois (Chi.)
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWL75%
HomeWWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %75%100%0%
Points / game79.585.761.0
Allowed / game64.858.384.0
Point differential+14.8+27.3-23.0
Avg total144.2144.0145.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Kennesaw State440100%95.564.8+30.8
2 Missouri State330100%85.361.3+24.0
3 Florida International330100%91.771.0+20.7
4 Western Kentucky43175%84.263.5+20.8
5 Middle Tenn. St.43175%80.876.2+4.5
6 Liberty32167%81.364.0+17.3
7 UTEP32167%71.767.3+4.3
8 Delaware42250%73.561.5+12.0
9 Louisiana Tech42250%69.863.2+6.5
10 Jacksonville State42250%80.075.5+4.5
11 Sam Houston St.42250%86.885.0+1.8
12 New Mexico State31233%66.378.3-12.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State440100%95.067.5+27.5
2 Drake330100%85.762.7+23.0
3 Illinois (Chi.)43175%79.564.8+14.8
4 Belmont43175%73.562.2+11.2
5 Southern Illinois32167%85.070.0+15.0
6 Valparaiso32167%77.373.0+4.3
7 Indiana State42250%80.265.8+14.5
8 Evansville42250%76.076.2-0.2
9 Bradley52340%59.856.4+3.4
10 Northern Iowa52340%85.286.0-0.8
11 Illinois State41325%81.275.8+5.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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