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Murcia vs PAOK Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 08 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 18:30
Final 89-85
20-19 27-21 16-20 26-25
Position#2
Record13-2
FormWWWLW
Points / game85.2
Allowed / game72.9
Murcia 🏆
vs
Position#5
Record11-4
FormLWWWW
Points / game87.1
Allowed / game80.0
EuropeFIBA Europe CupFIBA Europe Cup - Semi-finals· Palacio de Deportes de Murcia
European cup2025
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murcia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
PAOK winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MurciaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMurcia
Date
Competition
Rostock
#10
W
89-82
89
82
+7
87avg 80
A11/02
FIBA Europe Cup
San Pablo Burgos
#13
W
101-82
101
82
+19
94avg 80
H14/02
ACB
Valencia
#1
L
84-110
84
110
-26
60avg 80
A08/03
ACB
Reggiana
#12
W
85-84
85
84
+1
76avg 80
A11/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Gran Canaria
#15
W
87-76
87
76
+11
82avg 80
H14/03
ACB
Reggiana
#12
W
77-63
77
63
+14
72avg 80
H18/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Manresa
#10
W
90-86
90
86
+4
81avg 80
A21/03
ACB
Bilbao
#7
W
100-81
100
81
+19
96avg 80
H28/03
ACB
PAOK
#5
L
73-79
73
79
-6
62avg 80
A01/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Joventut Badalona
#6
W
89-67
89
67
+22
83avg 80
A04/04
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-20
24-13
17-30
26-19
28-15
20-24
20-22
33-21
19-30
20-25
23-35
22-20
16-21
35-21
21-18
13-24
15-15
22-15
28-18
22-28
15-19
13-8
18-17
31-19
18-15
18-22
32-31
22-18
22-25
27-22
21-16
30-18
17-19
26-15
12-21
18-24
18-15
27-15
23-19
21-18
168.5Avg total
87.5Scored
81.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)85.272.9158.1+12.387%
Season at home (7)85.067.7152.7+17.3100%
Season away (8)85.477.5162.9+7.975%
Last 10 (10)87.581.0168.5+6.580%
Last 5 (5)85.875.2161.0+10.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)88.095.0183.0-7.050%
vs Similar (4)83.279.5162.8+3.875%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)89.279.6168.8+9.579%
This opponent (PAOK) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PAOKLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPAOK
Date
Competition
Bilbao
#1
L
87-88
87
88
-1
80avg 78
H11/02
FIBA Europe Cup
AEK Athens
#4
L
71-88
71
88
-17
57avg 78
H14/02
Basket League
Olympiacos
#1
L
73-100
73
100
-27
64avg 78
A08/03
Basket League
Peristeri
#3
W
101-77
101
77
+24
95avg 78
H11/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Peristeri
#3
L
80-88
80
88
-8
66avg 78
A18/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Peristeri
#6
L
70-75
70
75
-5
59avg 78
A21/03
Basket League
Mykonos
#7
W
100-87
100
87
+13
100avg 78
H25/03
Basket League
Promitheas
#9
W
100-70
100
70
+30
96avg 78
H28/03
Basket League
Murcia
#2
W
79-73
79
73
+6
74avg 78
H01/04
FIBA Europe Cup
AS Karditsas
#11
W
93-90
93
90
+3
84avg 78
H04/04
Basket League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-24
20-18
25-22
12-24
21-14
14-23
20-25
16-26
11-25
22-16
15-28
25-31
25-18
26-18
29-20
21-21
12-21
19-25
29-20
20-22
12-20
27-12
13-26
18-17
26-18
25-26
23-24
26-19
30-15
30-17
20-15
20-23
19-17
15-26
21-12
24-18
18-26
22-20
24-24
29-20
169.0Avg total
85.4Scored
83.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)87.180.0167.1+7.173%
Season at home (8)93.279.0172.2+14.288%
Season away (7)80.081.1161.1-1.157%
Last 10 (10)85.483.6169.0+1.850%
Last 5 (5)88.479.0167.4+9.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)77.087.0164.0-10.017%
vs Similar (9)83.283.1166.3+0.156%
vs Weaker (15)89.376.5165.8+12.993%
This opponent (Murcia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.4-0.4Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: +5.2+5.2Q2: +1.9+1.9Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: +2.9+2.9Q4: -1.0-1.0
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.4-0.4Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: +5.2+5.2Q2: +1.9+1.9Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: +2.9+2.9Q4: -1.0-1.0
MurciaPAOK
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MurciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rostock
#10
W
46-33
46
33
+13
A11/02
FIBA Europe Cup
San Pablo Burgos
#13
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H14/02
ACB
Valencia
#1
L
39-55
39
55
-16
A08/03
ACB
Reggiana
#12
W
51-42
51
42
+9
A11/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Gran Canaria
#15
W
37-30
37
30
+7
H14/03
ACB
Reggiana
#12
W
28-27
28
27
+1
H18/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Manresa
#10
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A21/03
ACB
Bilbao
#7
W
49-47
49
47
+2
H28/03
ACB
PAOK
#5
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A01/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Joventut Badalona
#6
W
45-30
45
30
+15
A04/04
ACB
79.6Avg total
42.2Scored
37.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.339.282.5+4.167%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.938.778.7+1.260%-
Last 30 away (15)46.739.786.4+7.173%-
Last 10 (10)42.237.479.6+4.880%-
Last 5 (5)40.235.075.2+5.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)40.044.584.5-4.550%-
vs Similar (4)37.840.077.8-2.225%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)44.538.683.2+5.975%-
This opponent (PAOK) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PAOKLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bilbao
#1
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H11/02
FIBA Europe Cup
AEK Athens
#4
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H14/02
Basket League
Olympiacos
#1
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A08/03
Basket League
Peristeri
#3
W
51-36
51
36
+15
H11/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Peristeri
#3
L
31-46
31
46
-15
A18/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Peristeri
#6
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A21/03
Basket League
Mykonos
#7
W
51-44
51
44
+7
H25/03
Basket League
Promitheas
#9
W
60-32
60
32
+28
H28/03
Basket League
Murcia
#2
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H01/04
FIBA Europe Cup
AS Karditsas
#11
L
40-46
40
46
-6
H04/04
Basket League
82.3Avg total
42.4Scored
39.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.339.581.9+2.850%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.140.186.3+6.067%-
Last 30 away (15)38.538.977.5-0.433%-
Last 10 (10)42.439.982.3+2.550%-
Last 5 (5)44.839.484.2+5.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)37.344.381.7-7.017%-
vs Similar (9)41.638.980.4+2.756%-
vs Weaker (15)44.838.082.8+6.860%-
This opponent (Murcia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Murciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Murcia: 87.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game
49%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.519.2
51.2%
52.0%38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.611.2
37.8%
34.9%33.6
🏀 Free throws20.615.5
75.2%
73.4%15.5
They take 67.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
PAOKtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

PAOK: 85.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.1 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game
49%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.819.7
53.5%
52.0%39.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.79.3
33.6%
34.9%27.9
🏀 Free throws24.718.1
73.3%
73.4%18.1
They take 64.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Murcia
WLWWWWWLWW
PAOK
WWWWLLWLLL
#2
League position
#5
+7.6
Net rating
+2.3
98.7
Offensive rating
98.3
91.1
Defensive rating
96.0
53.7%
Effective FG%
52.2%
49.3%
Opp. effective FG%
52.9%
13.3%
Turnover %
13.0%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.38
37.8%
3-point %
33.6%
55.9%
Assist %
60.3%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence98.7 · 98.3Defence91.1 · 96.0Shooting53.7% · 52.2%3-point %37.8% · 33.6%Ball care13.3% · 13.0%Free throws0.31 · 0.38Form (last 10/10)80% · 50%
■ Murcia   ■ PAOK
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Murcia wins
1
PAOK wins
DateGameScore
01/04/26PAOK v Murcia79-73
Murcialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/04/26AJoventut Badalona89-67
01/04/26APAOK73-79
28/03/26HBilbao100-81
21/03/26AManresa90-86
18/03/26HReggiana77-63
14/03/26HGran Canaria87-76
11/03/26AReggiana85-84
08/03/26AValencia84-110
14/02/26HSan Pablo Burgos101-82
11/02/26ARostock89-82
PAOKlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/04/26HAS Karditsas93-90
01/04/26HMurcia79-73
28/03/26HPromitheas100-70
25/03/26HMykonos100-87
21/03/26APeristeri70-75
18/03/26APeristeri80-88
11/03/26HPeristeri101-77
08/03/26AOlympiacos73-100
14/02/26HAEK Athens71-88
11/02/26HBilbao87-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murcia
FIBA Europe Cup 2025
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL87%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1578
Win %87%100%75%
Points / game85.285.085.4
Allowed / game72.967.777.5
Point differential+12.3+17.3+7.9
Avg total158.1152.7162.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+53%71%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
PAOK
FIBA Europe Cup 2025
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW73%
HomeWWLWW88%
AwayWWLWL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1587
Win %73%88%57%
Points / game87.193.280.0
Allowed / game80.079.081.1
Point differential+7.1+14.2-1.1
Avg total167.1172.2161.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)50% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %7%0%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bilbao1615194%94.770.1+24.6
2 Murcia1513287%85.272.9+12.3
3 Peristeri1411379%85.478.1+7.3
4 PAOK1511473%87.180.0+7.1
5 KK Bosna1611569%78.574.8+3.8
6 Basketball Braunschweig64267%83.781.3+2.3
7 CSM Oradea128467%83.181.0+2.1
8 Vechta85362%86.080.2+5.8
9 Basket Zaragoza127558%86.278.3+7.8
10 Rostock127558%85.378.4+6.9
11 Petkim Spor148657%81.474.4+6.9
12 Reggiana147750%82.175.2+6.9
13 Anwil Wloclawek84450%91.484.6+6.8
14 Antwerp Giants63350%84.079.3+4.7
15 Dijon63350%83.583.3+0.2
16 Szombathely168850%81.281.4-0.2
17 Neftchi IK63350%87.088.7-1.7
18 Cibona84450%81.083.1-2.1
19 AEK Larnaca63350%81.084.7-3.7
20 Bashkimi84450%78.584.1-5.6
21 BC Kalev/Cramo63350%82.589.8-7.3
22 BC Prievidza146843%80.383.9-3.6
23 Sassari125742%81.880.0+1.8
24 Sporting CP125742%82.482.4+0.0
25 Cedevita Junior125742%85.185.5-0.4
26 Trefl Sopot125742%83.684.4-0.8
27 Absheron Lions83538%86.287.6-1.4
28 Brno83538%77.585.5-8.0
29 Bakken Bears62433%85.786.5-0.8
30 Lublin62433%79.784.8-5.2
31 Tartu Ulikool62433%82.890.7-7.8
32 FC Porto62433%76.085.8-9.8
33 Keravnos62433%78.090.2-12.2
34 Corona Brasov82625%78.284.4-6.1
35 Anorthosis82625%72.091.1-19.1
36 Pelister61517%80.393.3-13.0
37 Rilski Sportist61517%68.781.7-13.0
38 Valcea61517%71.398.8-27.5
39 Kutaisi61517%63.798.3-34.7
40 Parnu2020%72.082.0-10.0
41 Trepca6060%75.786.5-10.8
42 Balkan2020%71.082.5-11.5
43 Mechelen2020%69.582.0-12.5
44 BC Dnipro2020%66.589.0-22.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 44 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Murcia2027162689
PAOK1921202585
← all games of the day
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