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Nagasaki vs Chiba Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 16 May 2026
Tip-off: 05:00
Final 102-93
36-24 20-22 24-20 22-27
Position#1
Record50-13
FormWLWWW
Points / game91.2
Allowed / game79.2
vs
Position#6
Record44-20
FormWLWWL
Points / game83.7
Allowed / game77.0
JapanB LeagueB.League - Semi-finals· Happiness Arena
Other2025-26Neutral venue
Meetings · Nagasaki v Chiba
27 Jan 2027
NAGA v CHIB
upcoming
16 May 2026
NAGA102
CHIB93
15 May 2026
NAGA82
CHIB74
28 Dec 2025
NAGA93
CHIB77
27 Dec 2025
NAGA86
CHIB79
27 Oct 2024
NAGA75
CHIB79
26 Oct 2024
NAGA50
CHIB82
09 Oct 2023
NAGA89
CHIB86
08 Oct 2023
NAGA91
CHIB82
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nagasaki winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Chiba winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NagasakiJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNagasaki
Date
Competition
Ibaraki Robots
#21
W
90-69
90
69
+21
86avg 87
A18/04
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#21
W
109-103 OT
109
103
+6
104avg 87
A19/04
B League
Shimane
#14
W
106-74
106
74
+32
109avg 87
H22/04
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#23
W
83-73
83
73
+10
75avg 87
A25/04
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#23
W
91-69
91
69
+22
92avg 87
A26/04
B League
Kyoto
#20
W
105-94
105
94
+11
103avg 87
H02/05
B League
Kyoto
#20
L
63-84
63
84
-21
47avg 87
H03/05
B League
Alvark
#8
W
93-78
93
78
+15
87avg 87
H07/05
B League
Alvark
#8
W
96-56
96
56
+40
102avg 87
H08/05
B League
Chiba
#6
W
82-74
82
74
+8
78avg 87
H15/05
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-15
29-18
32-12
12-24
18-27
26-28
18-20
31-18
23-19
32-12
29-21
22-22
22-18
26-20
10-17
25-18
29-17
21-17
29-20
12-15
25-19
34-31
17-29
29-15
20-19
9-22
18-26
16-17
22-20
14-22
30-15
27-21
23-15
22-12
25-17
26-12
23-22
18-27
24-11
17-14
169.2Avg total
91.8Scored
77.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (63)91.279.2170.4+12.079%
Season at home (33)91.479.2170.6+12.282%
Season away (30)90.979.2170.1+11.777%
Last 10 (10)91.877.4169.2+14.490%
Last 5 (5)87.877.2165.0+10.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)87.076.0163.0+11.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (28)88.581.0169.5+7.571%
This opponent (Chiba) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ChibaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormChiba
Date
Competition
Hokkaido
#9
L
84-92
84
92
-8
78avg 78
A19/04
B League
Yokohama
#15
W
101-77
101
77
+24
100avg 78
H22/04
B League
Hiroshima D.
#13
W
83-68
83
68
+15
82avg 78
H25/04
B League
Hiroshima D.
#13
W
88-74
88
74
+14
56avg 78
H26/04
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
98-81
98
81
+17
102avg 78
H02/05
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
96-87
96
87
+9
89avg 78
H03/05
B League
Gunma
#5
L
68-87
68
87
-19
60avg 78
H09/05
B League
Gunma
#5
W
85-79
85
79
+6
47avg 78
H10/05
B League
Gunma
#5
W
72-68
72
68
+4
74avg 78
H11/05
B League
Nagasaki
#1
L
74-82
74
82
-8
64avg 78
A15/05
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-24
24-17
16-20
18-31
23-17
31-22
30-15
17-23
22-13
23-20
14-20
24-15
15-17
31-13
19-24
23-20
35-20
24-15
20-19
19-27
34-24
18-17
22-16
22-30
21-22
14-28
17-18
16-19
25-11
23-30
18-25
19-13
18-18
19-23
15-6
20-21
22-23
27-18
11-24
14-17
164.4Avg total
84.9Scored
79.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (64)83.777.0160.7+6.869%
Season at home (33)83.573.5157.0+10.079%
Season away (31)84.080.7164.7+3.358%
Last 10 (10)84.979.5164.4+5.470%
Last 5 (5)79.080.6159.6-1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)74.082.0156.0-8.00%
vs Similar (8)77.582.2159.8-4.838%
vs Weaker (21)89.378.2167.5+11.176%
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.1+3.1Q1: +5.2+5.2Q2Q2: +2.2+2.2Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: +4.4+4.4Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: +4.1+4.1Q4: -2.4-2.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.1+3.1Q1: +5.2+5.2Q2Q2: +2.2+2.2Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: +4.4+4.4Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: +4.1+4.1Q4: -2.4-2.4
NagasakiChiba
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ibaraki Robots
#21
W
46-33
46
33
+13
A18/04
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#21
L
44-55
44
55
-11
A19/04
B League
Shimane
#14
W
55-31
55
31
+24
H22/04
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#23
W
48-38
48
38
+10
A25/04
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#23
W
50-34
50
34
+16
A26/04
B League
Kyoto
#20
W
59-50
59
50
+9
H02/05
B League
Kyoto
#20
L
29-41
29
41
-12
H03/05
B League
Alvark
#8
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H07/05
B League
Alvark
#8
W
45-27
45
27
+18
H08/05
B League
Chiba
#6
L
41-49
41
49
-8
H15/05
B League
85.3Avg total
45.3Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.841.184.9+2.760%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.442.487.8+3.056%-
Last 30 away (14)42.039.681.6+2.464%-
Last 10 (10)45.340.085.3+5.360%-
Last 5 (5)42.041.883.8+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)37.540.578.0-3.050%-
vs Weaker ◀ (28)44.241.185.4+3.161%-
This opponent (Chiba) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ChibaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hokkaido
#9
W
50-41
50
41
+9
A19/04
B League
Yokohama
#15
W
54-39
54
39
+15
H22/04
B League
Hiroshima D.
#13
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H25/04
B League
Hiroshima D.
#13
W
46-30
46
30
+16
H26/04
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
59-35
59
35
+24
H02/05
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
52-41
52
41
+11
H03/05
B League
Gunma
#5
L
35-50
35
50
-15
H09/05
B League
Gunma
#5
W
48-41
48
41
+7
H10/05
B League
Gunma
#5
L
37-41
37
41
-4
H11/05
B League
Nagasaki
#1
W
49-41
49
41
+8
A15/05
B League
86.7Avg total
47.5Scored
39.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.339.384.6+6.070%-
Last 30 at home (15)45.937.783.7+8.273%-
Last 30 away (15)44.740.985.6+3.967%-
Last 10 (10)47.539.286.7+8.380%-
Last 5 (5)44.242.887.0+1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)49.041.090.0+8.0100%-
vs Similar (8)39.944.684.5-4.825%-
vs Weaker (21)47.237.284.4+10.086%-
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 91.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.321.3
62.1%
53.1%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.211.9
37.0%
33.7%35.7
🏀 Free throws16.413.5
82.3%
73.1%13.5
They take 66.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Chibatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Chiba: 80.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.018.6
58.1%
53.1%37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.110.5
34.9%
33.7%31.5
🏀 Free throws15.711.9
75.8%
73.1%11.9
They take 62.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 May 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nagasaki
WWWLWWWWWW
Chiba
LWWLWWWWWL
#1
League position
#6
+16.4
Net rating
+3.3
104.6
Offensive rating
97.8
88.2
Defensive rating
94.5
58.9%
Effective FG%
55.3%
50.8%
Opp. effective FG%
49.9%
15.1%
Turnover %
13.2%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.25
37.0%
3-point %
34.9%
66.6%
Assist %
73.2%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence104.6 · 97.8Defence88.2 · 94.5Shooting58.9% · 55.3%3-point %37.0% · 34.9%Ball care15.1% · 13.2%Free throws0.25 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)90% · 70%
■ Nagasaki   ■ Chiba
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Nagasaki wins
2
Chiba wins
DateGameScore
15/05/26Nagasaki v Chiba82-74
28/12/25Nagasaki v Chiba93-77
27/12/25Nagasaki v Chiba86-79
27/10/24Nagasaki v Chiba75-79
26/10/24Nagasaki v Chiba50-82
09/10/23Nagasaki v Chiba89-86
08/10/23Nagasaki v Chiba91-82
Nagasakilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/05/26HChiba82-74
08/05/26HAlvark96-56
07/05/26HAlvark93-78
03/05/26HKyoto63-84
02/05/26HKyoto105-94
26/04/26ANagoya Fighting Eagles91-69
25/04/26ANagoya Fighting Eagles83-73
22/04/26HShimane106-74
19/04/26AIbaraki Robots109-103 OT
18/04/26AIbaraki Robots90-69
Chibalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/05/26ANagasaki74-82
11/05/26HGunma72-68
10/05/26HGunma85-79
09/05/26HGunma68-87
03/05/26HAltiri Chiba96-87
02/05/26HAltiri Chiba98-81
26/04/26HHiroshima D.88-74
25/04/26HHiroshima D.83-68
22/04/26HYokohama101-77
19/04/26AHokkaido84-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nagasaki
B League 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW79%
HomeWLWWW82%
AwayWWWWW77%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633330
Win %79%82%77%
Points / game91.291.490.9
Allowed / game79.279.279.2
Point differential+12.0+12.2+11.7
Avg total170.4170.6170.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%64%57%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)50% (4)40% (5)
Overtime %3%0%7%
Chiba
B League 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL69%
HomeWWLWW79%
AwayWWWLL58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games643331
Win %69%79%58%
Points / game83.783.584.0
Allowed / game77.073.580.7
Point differential+6.8+10.0+3.3
Avg total160.7157.0164.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%55%35%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (14)43% (7)71% (7)
Overtime %2%0%3%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nagasaki63501379%91.279.2+12.0
2 Utsunomiya Brex62451773%85.180.1+5.0
3 Ryukyu63451871%82.274.8+7.4
4 SeaHorses Mikawa62431969%83.577.9+5.5
5 Chiba64442069%83.777.0+6.8
6 Gunma63432068%82.973.1+9.8
7 Diamond Dolphins63432068%82.675.2+7.4
8 Alvark62412166%81.078.1+2.9
9 Hokkaido60372362%88.386.7+1.6
10 NeoPhoenix60362460%85.983.1+2.8
11 Sendai60352558%82.879.8+3.0
12 Saga60322853%82.381.7+0.6
13 Hiroshima D.60312952%86.084.1+1.9
14 Shimane60283247%79.581.1-1.6
15 Yokohama60263443%79.481.7-2.4
16 Sun Rockers Shibuya60253542%76.580.1-3.6
17 Osaka60233738%81.183.1-2.0
18 Shiga60233738%80.385.0-4.6
19 Koshigaya Alphas60213935%75.782.1-6.4
20 Kyoto60204033%74.781.2-6.6
21 Ibaraki Robots60194132%76.281.4-5.2
22 Altiri Chiba60194132%78.984.2-5.3
23 Nagoya Fighting Eagles60184230%80.084.5-4.5
24 Toyama60184230%81.888.6-6.8
25 Brave Thunders60164427%75.984.0-8.1
26 Akita60105017%73.385.5-12.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 26 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nagasaki36202422102
Chiba2422202793
← all games of the day
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