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Nardo vs Forli Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 29 Dec 2024
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 75-84
19-24 16-25 20-17 20-18
Position#19
Record5-12
FormLLWLL
Points / game73.3
Allowed / game81.2
vs
Forli 🏆
Italy
Position#6
Record10-7
FormWWWLW
Points / game77.7
Allowed / game75.3
ItalySerie A2Round 18· PalaPentassuglia
Other2024-25
Meetings · Nardo v Forli
29 Dec 2024
NARD75
FORL84
06 Dec 2023
NARD107
FORL114
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nardo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Forli winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NardoItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNardo
Date
Competition
Sebastiani Rieti
#4
W
81-71
81
71
+10
74avg 63
H03/11
Serie A2
Assigeco Piacenza
#20
L
75-93
75
93
-18
69avg 63
A06/11
Serie A2
Verona
#8
L
76-86
76
86
-10
66avg 63
A10/11
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#10
L
68-74
68
74
-6
57avg 63
H13/11
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#11
L
74-92
74
92
-18
51avg 63
A17/11
Serie A2
Orzinuovi
#14
L
58-66
58
66
-8
52avg 63
A01/12
Serie A2
Rimini
#3
L
67-82
67
82
-15
49avg 63
H08/12
Serie A2
Cividale
#5
W
84-77
84
77
+7
77avg 63
H11/12
Serie A2
Cento
#15
L
76-82 OT
76
82
-6
66avg 63
A15/12
Serie A2
Urania Milano
#12
L
62-85
62
85
-23
55avg 63
A21/12
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-13
24-17
22-15
17-26
22-21
16-22
19-24
18-26
11-21
15-25
24-23
26-17
20-13
15-11
17-25
16-25
25-25
20-24
15-24
14-19
13-17
19-23
15-10
11-16
23-23
17-14
18-30
9-15
25-21
10-21
27-19
22-16
14-18
9-17
28-16
20-20
21-27
20-18
5-23
16-17
152.9Avg total
72.1Scored
80.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)73.381.2154.5-7.929%
Season at home (8)76.879.4156.1-2.650%
Season away (9)70.282.9153.1-12.711%
Last 10 (10)72.180.8152.9-8.720%
Last 5 (5)69.478.4147.8-9.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)74.581.2155.8-6.738%
vs Similar (17)76.079.0155.0-3.041%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Forli) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ForliItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormForli
Date
Competition
Libertas Livorno
#17
L
67-69
67
69
-2
55avg 70
H02/11
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#10
W
92-67
92
67
+25
93avg 70
A06/11
Serie A2
Orzinuovi
#14
W
87-82 OT
87
82
+5
76avg 70
H10/11
Serie A2
Udine
#1
L
75-84
75
84
-9
63avg 70
A13/11
Serie A2
Cantu
#2
L
71-76
71
76
-5
65avg 70
H17/11
Serie A2
Urania Milano
#12
W
82-80
82
80
+2
79avg 70
A23/11
Serie A2
Assigeco Piacenza
#20
W
88-82
88
82
+6
88avg 70
H01/12
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#16
W
79-74
79
74
+5
78avg 70
A07/12
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#7
L
71-76 OT
71
76
-5
64avg 70
A14/12
Serie A2
Vigevano
#18
W
93-91
93
91
+2
92avg 70
H22/12
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-18
21-14
20-20
13-17
20-12
24-14
22-20
26-21
23-22
19-15
15-16
18-22
14-27
20-23
13-22
28-12
16-20
21-15
25-21
9-20
32-17
21-20
17-28
12-15
21-24
25-18
19-21
23-19
19-18
30-14
12-19
18-23
18-17
21-17
15-18
13-15
24-22
14-21
24-25
31-23
158.6Avg total
80.5Scored
78.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)77.775.3153.0+2.459%
Season at home (8)80.574.4154.9+6.175%
Season away (9)75.276.1151.3-0.944%
Last 10 (10)80.578.1158.6+2.460%
Last 5 (5)82.680.6163.2+2.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)75.084.0159.0-9.00%
vs Similar (18)73.375.9149.2-2.739%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)83.574.5158.0+8.991%
This opponent (Nardo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: -2.7-2.7Q2: +4.5+4.5Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: -2.8-2.8Q4Q4: -2.8-2.8Q4: +0.4+0.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: -2.7-2.7Q2: +4.5+4.5Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: -2.8-2.8Q4Q4: -2.8-2.8Q4: +0.4+0.4
NardoForli
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NardoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sebastiani Rieti
#4
W
42-30
42
30
+12
H03/11
Serie A2
Assigeco Piacenza
#20
L
38-43
38
43
-5
A06/11
Serie A2
Verona
#8
L
26-46
26
46
-20
A10/11
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#10
W
35-24
35
24
+11
H13/11
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#11
L
45-49
45
49
-4
A17/11
Serie A2
Orzinuovi
#14
L
32-40
32
40
-8
A01/12
Serie A2
Rimini
#3
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H08/12
Serie A2
Cividale
#5
L
35-42
35
42
-7
H11/12
Serie A2
Cento
#15
L
23-35
23
35
-12
A15/12
Serie A2
Urania Milano
#12
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A21/12
Serie A2
74.8Avg total
35.7Scored
39.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.440.177.4-2.747%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.936.876.6+3.171%-
Last 30 away (16)35.242.978.1-7.825%-
Last 10 (10)35.739.174.8-3.430%-
Last 5 (5)34.239.874.0-5.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)36.240.076.2-3.838%-
vs Similar (17)38.340.178.4-1.853%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Forli) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ForliLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Libertas Livorno
#17
W
34-32
34
32
+2
H02/11
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#10
W
44-26
44
26
+18
A06/11
Serie A2
Orzinuovi
#14
W
42-37
42
37
+5
H10/11
Serie A2
Udine
#1
L
34-50
34
50
-16
A13/11
Serie A2
Cantu
#2
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H17/11
Serie A2
Urania Milano
#12
W
53-37
53
37
+16
A23/11
Serie A2
Assigeco Piacenza
#20
W
46-42
46
42
+4
H01/12
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#16
W
49-32
49
32
+17
A07/12
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#7
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A14/12
Serie A2
Vigevano
#18
L
38-43
38
43
-5
H22/12
Serie A2
78.4Avg total
41.6Scored
36.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.737.276.8+2.560%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.335.975.2+3.367%-
Last 30 away (15)40.138.478.5+1.753%-
Last 10 (10)41.636.878.4+4.880%-
Last 5 (5)45.037.682.6+7.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)34.050.084.0-16.00%-
vs Similar (18)38.536.174.6+2.461%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)42.137.879.9+4.364%-
This opponent (Nardo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nardotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nardo: 71.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.4 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.0 points a game
47%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.216.6
48.5%
50.1%33.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.29.2
36.5%
34.6%27.6
🏀 Free throws15.310.4
68.0%
74.4%10.4
They take 59.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Forlitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Forli: 79.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.0 points a game
47%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.118.4
49.6%
50.1%36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.89.3
33.5%
34.6%27.9
🏀 Free throws20.115.0
74.6%
74.4%15.0
They take 64.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Dec 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nardo
LLWLLLLLLW
Forli
WLWWWLLWWL
#19
League position
#6
-12.3
Net rating
+3.3
97.2
Offensive rating
106.5
109.5
Defensive rating
103.1
51.2%
Effective FG%
49.8%
53.7%
Opp. effective FG%
48.9%
21.6%
Turnover %
16.3%
24.3%
Off. rebound %
29.1%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.31
36.5%
3-point %
33.5%
45.0%
Assist %
67.1%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence97.2 · 106.5Defence109.5 · 103.1Shooting51.2% · 49.8%3-point %36.5% · 33.5%Ball care21.6% · 16.3%Off. rebounds24.3% · 29.1%Free throws0.26 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)20% · 60%
■ Nardo   ■ Forli
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Nardo wins
2
Forli wins
DateGameScore
06/12/23Nardo v Forli107-114 OT
08/10/23Forli v Nardo99-70
Nardolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/12/24AUrania Milano62-85
15/12/24ACento76-82 OT
11/12/24HCividale84-77
08/12/24HRimini67-82
01/12/24AOrzinuovi58-66
17/11/24AAvellino Basket74-92
13/11/24HBasket Torino68-74
10/11/24AVerona76-86
06/11/24AAssigeco Piacenza75-93
03/11/24HSebastiani Rieti81-71
Forlilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/12/24HVigevano93-91
14/12/24AFortitudo Bologna71-76 OT
07/12/24AJuVi Cremona79-74
01/12/24HAssigeco Piacenza88-82
23/11/24AUrania Milano82-80
17/11/24HCantu71-76
13/11/24AUdine75-84
10/11/24HOrzinuovi87-82 OT
06/11/24ABasket Torino92-67
02/11/24HLibertas Livorno67-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nardo
Serie A2 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL29%
HomeWWLLW50%
AwayLLLLL11%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1789
Win %29%50%11%
Points / game73.376.870.2
Allowed / game81.279.482.9
Point differential-7.9-2.6-12.7
Avg total154.5156.1153.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%25%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %6%0%11%
Forli
Serie A2 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW59%
HomeLWLWW75%
AwayWLWWL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1789
Win %59%75%44%
Points / game77.780.575.2
Allowed / game75.374.476.1
Point differential+2.4+6.1-0.9
Avg total153.0154.9151.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%25%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)50% (4)67% (3)
Overtime %18%25%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Rimini1714382%82.775.9+6.8
2 Udine1713476%83.374.1+9.2
3 Cantu1813572%78.973.2+5.7
4 Urania Milano1711665%78.473.9+4.4
5 Cividale1711665%79.576.6+2.9
6 Verona1710759%77.474.0+3.4
7 Forli1710759%77.775.3+2.4
8 Sebastiani Rieti1710759%74.272.7+1.5
9 Avellino Basket1710759%77.677.8-0.1
10 Orzinuovi179853%79.679.6+0.0
11 Fortitudo Bologna189950%74.874.5+0.3
12 Pesaro189950%77.178.6-1.6
13 Brindisi1771041%76.477.5-1.1
14 Basket Torino1771041%76.278.4-2.2
15 Libertas Livorno1761135%73.676.2-2.6
16 JuVi Cremona1761135%79.982.9-2.9
17 Cento1751229%70.177.5-7.4
18 Nardo1751229%73.381.2-7.9
19 Vigevano1741324%77.482.6-5.2
20 Assigeco Piacenza1831517%74.980.4-5.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nardo1916202075
Forli2425171884
← all games of the day
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