Nevada faces Utah Valley State on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating Nevada as the favourite and projecting a decisive 78-70 win; the model gives Nevada a 74% chance to win and Utah Valley State a 26% chance, while Nevada's 39% probability of covering the -10.5 spread and a 36% chance of the 153.5 total going over are also noted. Nevada has a 2-1 record in all games this season, scoring 81.7 points per game and allowing 73.3, and is 164th in the league; at home it is undefeated 2-0, averaging 91.0 points and conceding 72.0, with a 3-2 record in its last five games and recent results including a 63-76 loss to UC Santa Barbara away, a 96-95 win over St. Marys (CA) at home, and a 86-49 victory over Robert Morris at home. Utah Valley State is unbeaten 2-0 this season, posting 92.5 points per game and 78.0 allowed, and is 75th in the league; on the road it is 1-0, scoring 101.0 and conceding 93.0, with a 4-1 record in its last five games and recent outcomes of a 101-93 win over Weber State away, an 84-63 win over Western Colorado at home, and a 61-63 loss to California Baptist at home. The projected total of 147.7 points and a 4% overtime probability round out the preview.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nevada winLost
74.3%fair 1.35
Best odds1.21
Implied80.7%
Edge-6.4pp
Utah Valley State winWon
25.7%fair 3.89
Best odds5.00
Implied19.3%
Edge+6.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Nevada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147Actual: Under 147
Over 147
51.2%
@ 1.43-13.7pp
Under 147
48.8%
@ 2.65+13.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Over/Under 152 · main lineActual: Under 152
Over 152
38.9%
@ 1.92-10.8pp
Under 152
61.1%
@ 1.95+10.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
Under
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
Over/Under 157Actual: Under 157
Over 157
27.8%
@ 2.50-9.7pp
Under 157
72.2%
@ 1.50+9.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Nevada total 77Actual: Nevada under 77
Over 77
52.3%
Under 77
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevada total 81 · main lineActual: Nevada under 81
Over 81
36.1%
@ 1.85-13.9pp
Under 81
63.9%
@ 1.85+13.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Nevada total 85Actual: Nevada under 85
Over 85
22.1%
Under 85
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utah Valley State total 67Actual: Utah Valley State over 67
Over 67
62.1%
Under 67
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utah Valley State total 71 · main lineActual: Utah Valley State over 71
Over 71
46.1%
@ 1.85-4.2pp
Under 71
53.9%
@ 1.87+4.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Utah Valley State total 75Actual: Utah Valley State under 75
Over 75
30.9%
Under 75
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Nevada -12.5Actual: Utah Valley State +12.5
NEVA -12.5
32.3%
@ 2.32-8.1pp
UTAH +12.5
67.7%
@ 1.57+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
NEVA
Betano
2.32
Bet365
2.25
UTAH
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.53
Spread Nevada -9.5 · main lineActual: Utah Valley State +9.5
NEVA -9.5
42.6%
@ 1.92-7.6pp
UTAH +9.5
57.4%
@ 2.00+7.6pp
Best 5 market prices
NEVA
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
UTAH
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.88
Spread Nevada -6.5Actual: Utah Valley State +6.5
NEVA -6.5
53.7%
@ 1.52-7.8pp
UTAH +6.5
46.3%
@ 2.50+7.8pp
Best 5 market prices
NEVA
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
UTAH
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.32
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
NevadaUtah Valley State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Nevada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Nevada win
NEVA win
no forecast
@ 1.42
UTAH win
no forecast
@ 2.87
2nd half Spread Nevada -3.5 · main lineActual: Nevada -3.5
NEVA -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
UTAH +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Over 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Utah Valley State (regulation)
NEVA
no forecast
@ 1.47
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
UTAH
no forecast
@ 2.90
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Nevada under 84.5
75.5%
1.46
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
Nevada under 83.5
72.3%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Nevada under 86.5
81.3%
1.31
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
Nevada under 85.5
78.6%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Nevada under 88.5
86.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Under 156
70.1%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
Nevada under 91.5
91.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+10.3pp
Won
Under 161
79.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Under 157
72.2%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Under 158
74.2%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Nevada under 90.5
90.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Under 156.5
70.7%
1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Under 160.5
78.4%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Under 157.5
72.8%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Under 159.5
76.6%
1.37
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Under 159
76.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Under 158.5
74.7%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Under 160
78.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Utah Valley State +14
72.9%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
Utah Valley State +15
75.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Nevada under 92.5
93.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Under 163.5
83.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Utah Valley State +17.5
81.4%
1.26
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Utah Valley State +13.5
70.8%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Utah Valley State +14.5
73.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Utah Valley State +16
78.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Nevada under 94.5
95.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Nevada under 96.5
96.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Utah Valley State +15.5
76.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Under 162.5
81.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Utah Valley State +17
81.0%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Utah Valley State +16.5
79.1%
1.28
Bet365
1.29
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Nevada under 98.5
98.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Utah Valley State +19.5
85.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Under 168.5
89.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Under 161.5
80.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Under 178.5
96.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Under 173.5
93.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Under 167.5
88.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Utah Valley State +24.5
92.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Under 177.5
96.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Under 172.5
93.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Under 176.5
95.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.7%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.03
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Utah Valley State under 75.5
70.1%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Utah Valley State under 76.5
73.3%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Under 166.5
87.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Under 171.5
92.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Utah Valley State under 78.5
79.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Utah Valley State under 80.5
84.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Nevada +10.5
93.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Utah Valley State over 54.5
93.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Utah Valley State over 56.5
90.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Nevada +6.5
87.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Utah Valley State over 58.5
87.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Nevada (regulation)
71.8%
1.21
Marathon Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Lost
Over 126.5
90.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Over 127.5
89.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Utah Valley State over 60.5
82.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Over 128.5
87.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Utah Valley State over 61.5
80.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Utah Valley State over 62.5
77.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Nevada -2
70.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Lost
Nevada -1.5
71.9%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Lost
Over 131.5
83.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Nevada win
74.3%
1.18
Marathon Bet
1.21
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.19
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-6.4pp
Lost
Nevada over 68.5
81.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Utah Valley State over 64.5
70.7%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Over 132.5
82.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Over 133.5
80.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-8.9pp
Won
Nevada over 70.5
75.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-9.7pp
Won
Over 136.5
75.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.0pp
Won
Nevada over 71.5
72.6%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-10.4pp
Lost
Over 137.5
73.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-12.0pp
Won
Over 138.5
70.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-13.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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