PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
New Mexico State hosts UTEP on 19 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names New Mexico State the clear favourite, assigning it an 87% chance to win largely because of its 1-2 record and 66.3 points per game compared with UTEP's 2-1 record and 71.7 points per game. New Mexico State has a 1-0 home record, scoring 73.0 and allowing 66.0 at home, while UTEP is 0-1 on the road, 76.0 points scored and 84.0 allowed. The last five games for New Mexico State show two wins and three losses, including a 73-66 home win over Western N. M. on 3 November, whereas UTEP's recent five include two wins and one loss, notably a 60-58 home victory over New Mexico State on 12 November. The teams have split ten meetings, with the most recent UTEP win 60-58 on 12 November. Pythia projects a 80-67 score for the game, a 146.4 total, and an 87% probability that New Mexico State will cover the spread, with a 3% chance of overtime. The final figure to note is New Mexico State's 66.3 points per game this season.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 66.3 | 78.3 | 144.7 | -12.0 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 73.0 | 66.0 | 139.0 | +7.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 63.0 | 84.5 | 147.5 | -21.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 70.6 | 76.0 | 146.6 | -5.4 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 65.6 | 73.4 | 139.0 | -7.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 70.0 | 78.4 | 148.4 | -8.4 | 14% |
| vs Similar (15) | 73.6 | 76.2 | 149.8 | -2.6 | 47% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 77.0 | 71.7 | 148.7 | +5.3 | 50% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 71.7 | 67.3 | 139.0 | +4.3 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 69.5 | 59.0 | 128.5 | +10.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 76.0 | 84.0 | 160.0 | -8.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 68.2 | 71.5 | 139.7 | -3.3 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 70.8 | 67.4 | 138.2 | +3.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (24) | 67.1 | 73.5 | 140.7 | -6.4 | 25% |
| vs Similar (2) | 70.0 | 62.0 | 132.0 | +8.0 | 100% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (3) | 71.7 | 67.3 | 139.0 | +4.3 | 67% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.2 | 34.7 | 68.9 | -0.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 34.2 | 31.3 | 65.5 | +2.9 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 34.1 | 37.8 | 71.9 | -3.6 | 31% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 32.5 | 34.6 | 67.1 | -2.1 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 32.2 | 34.2 | 66.4 | -2.0 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 33.1 | 37.9 | 71.0 | -4.7 | 29% | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 33.6 | 36.3 | 69.9 | -2.7 | 33% | - |
| vs Weaker (6) | 35.2 | 30.7 | 65.8 | +4.5 | 67% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 31.8 | 35.1 | 66.9 | -3.3 | 27% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 32.3 | 33.2 | 65.5 | -0.9 | 38% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 31.2 | 37.2 | 68.4 | -6.0 | 14% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 32.5 | 33.5 | 66.0 | -1.0 | 20% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.2 | 31.2 | 66.4 | +4.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (24) | 31.5 | 35.5 | 66.9 | -4.0 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 28.5 | 30.5 | 59.0 | -2.0 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (3) | 37.3 | 33.0 | 70.3 | +4.3 | 33% | - |
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| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | UTEP v New Mexico State | 60-58 |
| 22/02/26 | New Mexico State v UTEP | 67-63 |
| 08/02/26 | UTEP v New Mexico State | 91-88 OT |
| 09/02/25 | New Mexico State v UTEP | 63-66 |
| 12/01/25 | UTEP v New Mexico State | 57-85 |
| 11/02/24 | UTEP v New Mexico State | 74-49 |
| 05/01/24 | New Mexico State v UTEP | 63-53 |
| 01/12/22 | New Mexico State v UTEP | 95-70 |
| 13/11/22 | UTEP v New Mexico State | 67-64 |
| 04/12/21 | UTEP v New Mexico State | 69-72 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | A | UTEP | 58-60 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Gonzaga | 68-109 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Western N. M. | 73-66 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Sam Houston St. | 61-69 |
| 11/03/26 | A | Jacksonville State | 68-63 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Kennesaw State | 79-76 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Jacksonville State | 77-75 OT |
| 28/02/26 | A | Middle Tenn. St. | 85-86 OT |
| 27/02/26 | A | Western Kentucky | 70-93 |
| 22/02/26 | H | UTEP | 67-63 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | H | New Mexico State | 60-58 |
| 09/11/26 | H | Incarnate Word | 79-60 |
| 02/11/26 | A | Northern Kentucky | 76-84 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Jacksonville State | 61-64 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Kennesaw State | 78-71 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Western Kentucky | 65-97 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Middle Tenn. St. | 67-77 |
| 22/02/26 | A | New Mexico State | 63-67 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Liberty | 64-73 |
| 12/02/26 | A | Jacksonville State | 69-64 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLL | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 66.3 | 73.0 | 63.0 |
| Allowed / game | 78.3 | 66.0 | 84.5 |
| Point differential | -12.0 | +7.0 | -21.5 |
| Avg total | 144.7 | 139.0 | 147.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWW | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 71.7 | 69.5 | 76.0 |
| Allowed / game | 67.3 | 59.0 | 84.0 |
| Point differential | +4.3 | +10.5 | -8.0 |
| Avg total | 139.0 | 128.5 | 160.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kennesaw State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 64.8 | +30.8 |
| 2 |  Missouri State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.3 | 61.3 | +24.0 |
| 3 |  Florida International | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.7 | 71.0 | +20.7 |
| 4 |  Western Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.2 | 63.5 | +20.8 |
| 5 |  Middle Tenn. St. | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 80.8 | 76.2 | +4.5 |
| 6 |  Liberty | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.3 | 64.0 | +17.3 |
| 7 | UTEP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 71.7 | 67.3 | +4.3 |
| 8 |  Louisiana Tech | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.8 | 63.2 | +6.5 |
| 9 |  Jacksonville State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 80.0 | 75.5 | +4.5 |
| 10 |  Sam Houston St. | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 86.8 | 85.0 | +1.8 |
| 11 |  Delaware | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.7 | 62.7 | +14.0 |
| 12 | New Mexico State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 66.3 | 78.3 | -12.0 |
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