The New York Knicks face the Milwaukee Bucks on 10 November 2026 in the NBA, with the Pythia model designating the Knicks as the clear favourite, rating them at 84% to win largely because their 5-4 season record and 109.9 points per game contrast sharply with the Bucks' 1-9 record and 108.4 points per game. New York's season so far shows 5 wins and 4 losses, averaging 109.9 points scored and 104.2 allowed, and they sit 14th in the league; at home they are 3-2, 110.2 points per game, 101.8 allowed, and have won 4 of their last 5 games, including a 135-105 victory over Chicago on 4 November. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has struggled, 1-9 overall, 108.4 points per game, 121.6 allowed, and they are 0-4 on the road, losing all five of their recent games, most notably a 107-121 loss to Toronto on 6 November. Their head-to-head record stands 7-3 in favour of New York, with the last meeting ending 127-98 for the Knicks on 27 February 2026. Pythia projects a 118-105 score, a 222.7 total, and a 41% chance the Knicks will cover the -16.0 line, while the over on the 220.0 line has a 55% probability; the game has a 4% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
New York Knicks winWon
83.7%fair 1.19
Best odds1.08
Implied89.4%
Edge-5.7pp
Milwaukee Bucks winLost
16.3%fair 6.14
Best odds12.10
Implied10.6%
Edge+5.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (New York Knicks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 223 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 220-224 (11%). The market's main line is 220.
Over/Under 215Actual: Under 215
Over 215
66.1%
@ 1.53+4.9pp
Under 215
33.9%
@ 2.40-4.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.52
Under
1xBet
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Over/Under 220 · main lineActual: Under 220
Over 220
55.3%
@ 1.93+5.3pp
Under 220
44.7%
@ 1.93-5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Over/Under 225Actual: Under 225
Over 225
44.1%
@ 2.50+6.6pp
Under 225
55.9%
@ 1.53-6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Under
Marathon Be
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
New York Knicks total 114Actual: New York Knicks over 114
Over 114
64.2%
Under 114
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
New York Knicks total 118 · main lineActual: New York Knicks under 118
Over 118
49.9%
@ 1.87-0.1pp
Under 118
50.1%
@ 1.87+0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
New York Knicks total 122Actual: New York Knicks under 122
Over 122
35.5%
Under 122
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milwaukee Bucks total 98Actual: Milwaukee Bucks under 98
Over 98
72.0%
Under 98
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milwaukee Bucks total 102 · main lineActual: Milwaukee Bucks under 102
Over 102
58.8%
@ 1.87+8.8pp
Under 102
41.2%
@ 1.87-8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
Milwaukee Bucks total 106Actual: Milwaukee Bucks under 106
Over 106
44.6%
Under 106
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from New York Knicks's side (positive = New York Knicks win). Pythia's expected margin is +13.1; New York Knicks win by 1+ in 77% of simulations.
Spread New York Knicks -19Actual: New York Knicks -19
NYK -19
32.3%
@ 2.30-7.9pp
MIL +19
67.7%
@ 1.56+7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
NYK
1xBet
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Marathon Be
2.28
MIL
1xBet
1.56
Bet365
1.55
Marathon Be
1.53
Spread New York Knicks -16 · main lineActual: New York Knicks -16
NYK -16
41.1%
@ 1.96-8.6pp
MIL +16
58.9%
@ 1.93+8.6pp
Best 5 market prices
NYK
1xBet
1.96
Bet365
1.96
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathon Be
1.89
MIL
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Spread New York Knicks -13Actual: New York Knicks -13
NYK -13
50.5%
@ 1.64-5.9pp
MIL +13
49.5%
@ 2.27+5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
NYK
1xBet
1.64
Bet365
1.64
Marathon Be
1.56
MIL
Marathon Be
2.27
1xBet
2.12
Bet365
2.12
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
New York KnicksMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (New York Knicks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: New York Knicks (regulation)
NYK
69.8%
@ 1.30+1.1pp
Draw
3.1%
@ 26.00-0.3pp
MIL
27.1%
@ 3.20-0.8pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Milwaukee Bucks +21.5
73.6%
1.40
1xBet
1.43
Bet365
1.41
Marathon Bet
1.36
-
-
+8.1pp
Lost
Milwaukee Bucks +21
73.0%
1.41
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.43
Marathon Bet
1.37
-
-
+8.1pp
Lost
Milwaukee Bucks +20.5
71.2%
1.46
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Marathon Bet
1.42
-
-
+8.0pp
Lost
Milwaukee Bucks +22.5
76.0%
1.34
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathon Bet
1.30
-
-
+7.9pp
Lost
Milwaukee Bucks +20
70.4%
1.48
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathon Bet
1.44
-
-
+7.9pp
Lost
Milwaukee Bucks +22
75.4%
1.35
1xBet
1.37
Bet365
1.37
Marathon Bet
1.32
-
-
+7.9pp
Lost
Milwaukee Bucks +23.5
78.2%
1.30
1xBet
1.32
Bet365
1.32
Marathon Bet
1.25
-
-
+7.7pp
Lost
Milwaukee Bucks +23
77.7%
1.31
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathon Bet
1.27
-
-
+7.7pp
Lost
Milwaukee Bucks over 95.5
79.3%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Lost
Milwaukee Bucks over 97.5
72.8%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Lost
Milwaukee Bucks +25.5
81.6%
1.24
1xBet
1.24
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Lost
Milwaukee Bucks over 92.5
85.7%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Lost
Milwaukee Bucks over 93.5
83.7%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Lost
Milwaukee Bucks +40.5
97.4%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Milwaukee Bucks +35.5
94.6%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Milwaukee Bucks over 91.5
87.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Lost
Milwaukee Bucks over 83.5
96.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
New York Knicks over 97.5
96.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Milwaukee Bucks over 81.5
97.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Milwaukee Bucks over 82.5
97.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Milwaukee Bucks over 85.5
95.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Lost
Milwaukee Bucks +30.5
89.5%
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Lost
Over 212
72.0%
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Lost
New York Knicks under 138.5
96.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
New York Knicks over 98.5
95.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Milwaukee Bucks over 87.5
93.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Lost
New York Knicks over 96.5
96.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Milwaukee Bucks over 89.5
90.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Lost
New York Knicks over 100.5
93.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Over 213
70.1%
1.42
Marathon Bet
1.44
1xBet
1.42
Bet365
1.41
-
-
+4.5pp
Lost
Over 212.5
70.7%
1.40
Marathon Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.40
WilliamHill
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
+4.4pp
Lost
New York Knicks under 137.5
95.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
New York Knicks +9.5
94.3%
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
New York Knicks under 136.5
94.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Over 194.5
94.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
New York Knicks over 106.5
84.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Over 209.5
76.1%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Lost
New York Knicks over 104.5
88.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Over 211.5
72.5%
1.35
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Lost
New York Knicks over 102.5
91.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
New York Knicks over 108.5
79.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
New York Knicks over 110.5
74.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Over 204.5
83.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Lost
New York Knicks under 134.5
92.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
New York Knicks over 107.5
82.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Over 199.5
89.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
New York Knicks under 132.5
89.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
New York Knicks under 130.5
86.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
New York Knicks under 126.5
77.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
New York Knicks under 127.5
80.2%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
New York Knicks under 128.5
81.8%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Milwaukee Bucks under 123.5
93.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
New York Knicks +4.5
89.1%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Milwaukee Bucks under 122.5
92.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
New York Knicks under 124.5
71.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Milwaukee Bucks under 121.5
91.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Milwaukee Bucks under 119.5
89.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Under 244.5
88.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
1st half: New York Knicks (regulation)
71.2%
1.22
WilliamHill
1.22
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
New York Knicks -4.5
75.8%
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Milwaukee Bucks under 117.5
86.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Under 239.5
82.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Milwaukee Bucks under 115.5
82.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Milwaukee Bucks under 112.5
75.1%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Milwaukee Bucks under 113.5
77.6%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Under 234.5
74.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Won
Milwaukee Bucks under 111.5
72.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
New York Knicks win
83.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Pinnacle
1.08
Marathon Bet
1.07
WilliamHill
1.07
1xBet
1.05
-5.7pp
Won
New York Knicks (regulation)
81.4%
1.06
Marathon Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
New York Knicks or draw
83.5%
1.02
Marathon Bet
1.02
-
-
-
-
-
Won
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League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
49.4
22.7
46.0%
54.0%
45.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
38.3
14.2
37.1%
35.1%
42.6
🏀Free throws
24.8
18.9
76.2%
77.2%
18.9
They take 87.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
43.8
24.6
56.2%
54.0%
49.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
43.4
16.4
37.8%
35.1%
49.2
🏀Free throws
20.9
14.7
70.3%
77.2%
14.7
They take 87.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
New York Knickstheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
New York Knicks: 105.3 points a game allowed
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.8 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
47.1
23.4
49.7%
54.0%
46.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
38.1
13.6
35.7%
35.1%
40.8
🏀Free throws
24.2
17.7
73.1%
77.2%
17.7
Their opponents take 85.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Milwaukee Bucks: 120.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.3 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.5 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
50.3
28.3
56.3%
54.0%
56.6
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
38.9
14.1
36.2%
35.1%
42.3
🏀Free throws
26.0
21.5
82.7%
77.2%
21.5
Their opponents take 89.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
50.6
27.7
54.8%
54.0%
55.5
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
35.2
13.3
37.7%
35.1%
39.9
🏀Free throws
24.2
18.5
76.7%
77.2%
18.5
They take 85.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
43.5
24.2
55.6%
54.0%
48.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
42.3
16.0
37.8%
35.1%
47.9
🏀Free throws
18.6
13.2
71.0%
77.2%
13.2
They take 85.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 42.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
New York Knickstheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
New York Knicks: 102.3 points a game allowed
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.7 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.6 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.0 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
45.8
23.8
52.0%
54.0%
47.7
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
37.9
12.5
33.1%
35.1%
37.6
🏀Free throws
23.3
17.0
73.1%
77.2%
17.0
Their opponents take 83.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Milwaukee Bucks: 119.9 points a game allowed
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.1 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers46.5 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
47.7
27.1
56.8%
54.0%
54.1
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
40.5
15.5
38.3%
35.1%
46.5
🏀Free throws
24.1
19.3
80.1%
77.2%
19.3
Their opponents take 88.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
New York Knicks
WWWLWWLLLW
Milwaukee Bucks
LLLLLLWLLL
#15
League position
#30
+1.6
Net rating
-6.8
108.2
Offensive rating
105.9
106.5
Defensive rating
112.7
50.2%
Effective FG%
56.4%
51.4%
Opp. effective FG%
55.4%
13.8%
Turnover %
15.8%
28.2%
Off. rebound %
15.2%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.24
37.1%
3-point %
37.8%
65.6%
Assist %
66.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
10%
Profile
■ New York Knicks■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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