North Carolina hosts Georgia on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Tar Heels the clear favourite, assigning them an 88% chance to win because their season record of 3-0, 88.3 points per game and 68.3 allowed per game outpace Georgia's 3-0 record, 83.0 points per game and 70.3 allowed per game; both teams are undefeated, but North Carolina's higher scoring margin and stronger defence give the edge. North Carolina's three home games have all been victories, with a 3-0 home record, 88.3 points scored and 68.3 allowed per game, and their last five games included wins over Wyoming 76-63, Wofford 109-70 and Western Carolina 80-72, showing consistency at home; Georgia's last five games were all wins, with recent victories over Florida Gulf Coast 80-72, Presbyterian 91-77 and N. Carolina Central 78-62, all at home, indicating solid road performance. The teams have not met before in this competition, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 86-72 score, with a 158.4 total points, and gives North Carolina an 80% probability of covering the -4.5 line; the over on the 160.5 total has a 44% chance, and there is a 2% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
North Carolina winLost
88.4%fair 1.13
Best odds1.55
Implied62.2%
Edge+26.2pp
Georgia winWon
11.6%fair 8.59
Best odds2.61
Implied37.8%
Edge-26.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 158.5Actual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
49.2%
@ 1.52-12.1pp
Under 158.5
50.8%
@ 2.40+12.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Over/Under 163.5 · main lineActual: Under 163.5
Over 163.5
37.2%
@ 1.95-13.3pp
Under 163.5
62.8%
@ 1.93+13.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.80
Over/Under 168.5Actual: Under 168.5
Over 168.5
26.4%
@ 2.65-10.4pp
Under 168.5
73.6%
@ 1.50+10.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.43
📊 3. Team Totals
North Carolina total 79Actual: North Carolina under 79
Over 79
76.9%
Under 79
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
North Carolina total 83 · main lineActual: North Carolina under 83
Over 83
62.5%
@ 1.85+12.2pp
Under 83
37.5%
@ 1.87-12.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
North Carolina total 87Actual: North Carolina under 87
Over 87
45.9%
Under 87
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Georgia total 75Actual: Georgia over 75
Over 75
38.6%
Under 75
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Georgia total 79 · main lineActual: Georgia under 79
Over 79
24.5%
@ 1.85-25.5pp
Under 79
75.5%
@ 1.85+25.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Georgia total 82.5Actual: Georgia under 82.5
Over 82.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under 82.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.25
Under
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread North Carolina -7.5Actual: Georgia +7.5
NORT -7.5
71.1%
@ 2.35+31.3pp
GEOR +7.5
28.9%
@ 1.54-31.3pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.30
GEOR
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
Spread North Carolina -4.5 · main lineActual: Georgia +4.5
NORT -4.5
79.9%
@ 1.95+30.5pp
GEOR +4.5
20.1%
@ 1.90-30.5pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.94
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
GEOR
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.87
Marathon Be
1.84
SBO
1.81
Spread North Carolina -1.5Actual: Georgia +1.5
NORT -1.5
86.9%
@ 1.57+27.9pp
GEOR +1.5
13.1%
@ 2.25-27.9pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
GEOR
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
North CarolinaGeorgia
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
North Carolina -6
76.4%
2.12
Pinnacle
2.25
Bet365
2.10
Marathon Bet
2.01
-
-
+33.8pp
Lost
North Carolina -6.5
74.2%
2.21
Pinnacle
2.35
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.12
-
-
+33.5pp
Lost
North Carolina -8
70.1%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+32.6pp
Lost
North Carolina -5
79.3%
1.98
Pinnacle
2.05
SBO
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
-
+32.5pp
Lost
North Carolina -5.5
77.1%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.95
-
+32.5pp
Lost
North Carolina -7
73.3%
2.25
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
-
+32.2pp
Lost
North Carolina -7.5
71.1%
2.33
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.30
-
-
-
+31.3pp
Lost
North Carolina -4.5
79.9%
1.90
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.94
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.89
+30.5pp
Lost
North Carolina -4
82.0%
1.82
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
-
+30.1pp
Lost
North Carolina -2
86.6%
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
-
+28.7pp
Lost
North Carolina -3.5
82.4%
1.77
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.76
Bet365
1.74
+28.4pp
Lost
North Carolina (regulation)
86.8%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Marathon Bet
1.53
-
-
-
+28.3pp
Lost
North Carolina -3
84.1%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.68
-
-
-
+28.1pp
Lost
North Carolina -1.5
86.9%
1.56
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+27.9pp
Lost
North Carolina -1
88.2%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+27.0pp
Lost
North Carolina -2.5
84.5%
1.65
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
-
-
+26.4pp
Lost
Georgia under 79.5
76.3%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
+26.4pp
Won
North Carolina win
88.4%
1.51
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52
1xBet
1.51
WilliamHill
1.50
+26.2pp
Lost
Georgia under 80.5
79.2%
1.75
Betano
1.75
-
-
-
-
+26.1pp
Won
Georgia under 78.5
73.2%
1.91
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
1.99
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
+25.6pp
Won
Georgia under 79
75.5%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+25.5pp
Won
North Carolina +1
89.4%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+24.9pp
Lost
North Carolina +1.5
89.5%
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+24.1pp
Lost
North Carolina +2
91.0%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+23.6pp
Lost
North Carolina +2.5
91.2%
1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+23.3pp
Lost
North Carolina +3.5
92.3%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Lost
North Carolina +3
92.2%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Lost
North Carolina +4.5
93.4%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+20.9pp
Lost
North Carolina +6.5
95.2%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Lost
North Carolina over 77.5
80.5%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Lost
North Carolina +10.5
97.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Under 167.5
71.6%
1.52
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Under 168.5
73.6%
1.46
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
Under 169.5
75.5%
1.41
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Under 167
71.0%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Under 168
73.1%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Under 170.5
77.4%
1.36
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
North Carolina over 79.5
74.5%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Lost
North Carolina +15.5
98.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
North Carolina over 80.5
71.1%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Lost
Under 169
75.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
North Carolina over 78.5
77.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Lost
North Carolina over 76.5
83.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Lost
North Carolina over 74.5
87.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Lost
Under 170
77.0%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
North Carolina over 73.5
89.6%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Lost
Overtime: no
97.5%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Under 172.5
80.9%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
North Carolina +20.5
99.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
North Carolina over 72.5
91.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Lost
North Carolina over 70.5
94.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Lost
Under 177.5
88.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
North Carolina under 98.5
89.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
North Carolina under 96.5
85.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Over 137.5
90.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
North Carolina under 93.5
77.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
North Carolina under 94.5
80.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
North Carolina under 92.5
74.4%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Over 142.5
83.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
Georgia over 60.5
87.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
Georgia over 61.5
85.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
Georgia +24.5
83.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Georgia over 62.5
83.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Over 147.5
74.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-9.3pp
Won
Georgia over 63.5
80.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-9.7pp
Won
Georgia over 64.5
77.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-12.3pp
Won
Georgia over 65.5
74.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-13.9pp
Won
Georgia over 66.5
71.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-16.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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