North Dakota hosts Montana on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Fighting Hawks at 73% to win against the Grizzlies at 27% and projecting a 79-72 scoreline for a total of 150.8 points, a spread of 0.0 that the model expects the home side to cover with a 73% probability and an over probability of 48% on the 151.5 line, with a 4% chance of overtime. North Dakota is 1-2 this season, averaging 73.3 points and conceding 89.0, positioned 302nd, while Montana is also 1-2, averaging 77.3 and allowing 63.3, positioned 253rd. North Dakota's last five games include a 93-90 win over Winthrop, a 77-92 loss to Clemson, and a 50-85 loss to Minnesota, whereas Montana's recent five feature a 105-40 win over Salish Kootenai, a 58-63 loss to San Francisco, and a 69-87 loss to Oregon. The teams have met three times, with Montana winning twice, most recently 79-75 on 6 December 2025. The projected 79-72 outcome reflects North Dakota's higher scoring average and Montana's stronger defensive numbers, suggesting the game will be close but favour the home side.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
North Dakota winLost
73.0%fair 1.37
Best odds2.01
Implied47.9%
Edge+25.1pp
Montana winWon
27.0%fair 3.70
Best odds1.93
Implied52.1%
Edge-25.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (North Dakota) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 145.5Actual: Over 145.5
Over 145.5
62.1%
@ 1.47-0.8pp
Under 145.5
37.9%
@ 2.55+0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 150.5 · main lineActual: Over 150.5
Over 150.5
50.1%
@ 1.90-0.5pp
Under 150.5
49.9%
@ 1.93+0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Over/Under 155.5Actual: Under 155.5
Over 155.5
38.2%
@ 2.55+0.7pp
Under 155.5
61.8%
@ 1.50-0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
North Dakota total 72Actual: North Dakota under 72
Over 72
76.0%
Under 72
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
North Dakota total 76 · main lineActual: North Dakota under 76
Over 76
61.6%
@ 1.85+11.6pp
Under 76
38.4%
@ 1.85-11.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
North Dakota total 80Actual: North Dakota under 80
Over 80
45.4%
Under 80
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana total 72Actual: Montana over 72
Over 72
49.2%
Under 72
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana total 76 · main lineActual: Montana over 76
Over 76
33.7%
@ 1.87-15.7pp
Under 76
66.3%
@ 1.85+15.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Montana total 80Push
Over 80
20.9%
Under 80
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread North Dakota -3Actual: Montana +3
NORT -3
65.5%
@ 2.26+23.1pp
MONT +3
34.5%
@ 1.66-23.1pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Pinnacle
2.26
Bet365
2.10
MONT
Bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
Spread North Dakota 0 · main lineActual: Montana 0
NORT 0
73.0%
@ 1.87+23.0pp
MONT 0
27.0%
@ 1.87-23.0pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
MONT
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Spread North Dakota +3Actual: Montana -3
NORT +3
80.2%
@ 1.68+23.0pp
MONT -3
19.8%
@ 2.35-23.0pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.54
MONT
Bet365
2.35
Pinnacle
2.24
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
North DakotaMontana
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
North DakotaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Dakota St
#30
W
32-31
32
31
+1
H14/02
NCAA
UMKC
#368
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H20/02
NCAA
South Dakota St.
#254
W
44-42
44
42
+2
A21/02
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
L
31-44
31
44
-13
A28/02
NCAA
Denver
#239
W
42-29
42
29
+13
H07/03
NCAA
St. Thomas (Minn.)
#42
L
28-34
28
34
-6
A08/03
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A09/03
NCAA
Minnesota
#53
L
25-41
25
41
-16
A03/11
NCAA
Winthrop
#347
L
42-45
42
45
-3
A07/11
NCAA
Clemson
#131
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A10/11
NCAA
72.8Avg total
35.1Scored
37.7Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 71
Last 30 (30)
35.9
37.5
73.4
-1.6
43%
53%
Last 30 at home (14)
38.4
34.9
73.3
+3.4
64%
50%
Last 30 away (16)
33.8
39.8
73.5
-6.0
25%
56%
Last 10 (10)
35.1
37.7
72.8
-2.6
50%
50%
Last 5 (5)
33.0
39.2
72.2
-6.2
20%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)
32.3
39.0
71.3
-6.7
23%
54%
vs Similar (12)
38.5
37.8
76.2
+0.8
58%
50%
vs Weaker (4)
37.8
36.0
73.8
+1.8
50%
75%
This opponent (Montana) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
North Dakota -1
72.3%
1.90
Pinnacle
2.09
SBO
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
+26.4pp
Lost
North Dakota (regulation)
70.5%
2.00
Marathon Bet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Betano
1.93
-
-
+26.1pp
Lost
North Dakota -1.5
70.5%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.00
Bet365
1.95
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.90
+25.9pp
Lost
North Dakota +1
74.6%
1.85
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.71
+25.8pp
Lost
North Dakota win
73.0%
1.93
Pinnacle
2.01
WilliamHill
2.00
Bet365
1.98
Marathon Bet
1.96
1xBet
1.96
+25.1pp
Lost
North Dakota +1.5
75.2%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
SBO
1.78
Betano
1.75
+24.8pp
Lost
North Dakota +2
77.7%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.78
Bet365
1.62
-
+24.7pp
Lost
North Dakota +2.5
78.4%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.72
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.58
1xBet
1.56
+23.2pp
Lost
North Dakota +3
80.2%
1.61
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Lost
North Dakota 0
73.0%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Lost
North Dakota +3.5
80.6%
1.56
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
+21.5pp
Lost
North Dakota +4
82.6%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Lost
North Dakota +4.5
83.0%
1.44
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Lost
North Dakota +5
84.8%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Lost
North Dakota +5.5
85.2%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Lost
North Dakota +6
86.9%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+17.4pp
Lost
North Dakota +6.5
87.1%
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Lost
North Dakota +7.5
88.8%
1.28
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Lost
North Dakota +8.5
90.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+15.1pp
Lost
North Dakota over 73.5
70.3%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Lost
Montana under 78.5
74.0%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Lost
North Dakota over 71.5
76.7%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Lost
Montana under 80.5
79.7%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
North Dakota over 72.5
73.6%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Lost
Montana under 77.5
70.8%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Lost
Montana under 79.5
77.0%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Lost
North Dakota over 70.5
79.6%
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
North Dakota +13.5
95.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
North Dakota +18.5
98.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
North Dakota +23.5
99.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.6%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Over 125.5
93.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Under 175.5
93.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
North Dakota under 94.5
93.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Under 159.5
70.6%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Over 130.5
89.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
North Dakota under 92.5
91.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Montana +21.5
89.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Montana over 57.5
92.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Under 170.5
88.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Over 135.5
82.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Over 140.5
73.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Montana over 59.5
88.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
North Dakota under 90.5
87.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Under 165.5
81.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Under 160.5
72.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Montana over 61.5
84.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
North Dakota under 88.5
83.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Montana +16.5
80.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
Montana over 63.5
79.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
North Dakota under 86.5
77.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Montana over 64.5
76.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
North Dakota under 84.5
71.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
North Dakota under 85.5
74.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-8.6pp
Won
Montana over 65.5
73.2%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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