PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Ohio State faces the UMBC Retrievers on 19 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model rates Ohio State as the clear favourite, assigning it a 94% chance of winning largely because the Buckeyes have a 2-2 record with an average of 81.0 points scored and 79.2 points allowed, while UMBC also sits at 2-2 but averages only 77.5 points scored and 75.2 points allowed. Ohio State's home form is stronger, with a 2-0 record at home, 86.5 points per game and 69.5 points allowed, and they have won two of their last five games, including a 84-74 victory over Marshall and a 89-65 win over Youngstown State, though they also suffered a 68-84 loss to Uconn away. UMBC's road record is 0-2, with 67.0 points per game and 85.0 points allowed, and they have also won two of their last five games, notably a 91-61 win over McDaniel and an 85-70 win over Morgan State, but lost 80-88 to Marist away. The Pythia model projects a score of 87-68, a total of 154.5 points, and gives Ohio State a 94% probability of covering the home line, while UMBC has a 6% chance of winning; the game carries a 1% overtime probability.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 81.0 | 79.2 | 160.2 | +1.8 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 86.5 | 69.5 | 156.0 | +17.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 75.5 | 89.0 | 164.5 | -13.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 79.4 | 73.7 | 153.1 | +5.7 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.6 | 76.6 | 154.2 | +1.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 71.5 | 79.9 | 151.4 | -8.4 | 12% |
| vs Similar ◀ (13) | 75.5 | 74.8 | 150.2 | +0.7 | 46% |
| vs Weaker (9) | 84.6 | 69.0 | 153.6 | +15.6 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 77.5 | 75.2 | 152.8 | +2.2 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 88.0 | 65.5 | 153.5 | +22.5 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 67.0 | 85.0 | 152.0 | -18.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 81.7 | 69.6 | 151.3 | +12.1 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 78.6 | 77.4 | 156.0 | +1.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 69.5 | 76.0 | 145.5 | -6.5 | 50% |
| vs Similar ◀ (3) | 77.3 | 89.3 | 166.7 | -12.0 | 0% |
| vs Weaker (24) | 77.4 | 65.5 | 142.9 | +11.8 | 79% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.6 | 34.5 | 71.1 | +2.2 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 37.2 | 34.4 | 71.6 | +2.7 | 56% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 35.8 | 34.5 | 70.3 | +1.3 | 50% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.4 | 32.9 | 71.3 | +5.5 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.8 | 35.0 | 71.8 | +1.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 35.6 | 38.6 | 74.2 | -3.0 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (13) | 35.2 | 34.2 | 69.4 | +1.1 | 54% | - |
| vs Weaker (9) | 39.6 | 31.2 | 70.8 | +8.3 | 78% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.3 | 31.9 | 68.2 | +4.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 37.9 | 30.8 | 68.7 | +7.1 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 34.6 | 33.0 | 67.6 | +1.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.4 | 32.8 | 71.2 | +5.6 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.8 | 36.8 | 75.6 | +2.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 34.5 | 36.0 | 70.5 | -1.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (3) | 34.3 | 44.0 | 78.3 | -9.7 | 0% | - |
| vs Weaker (24) | 36.0 | 30.3 | 66.4 | +5.7 | 67% | - |
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| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Uconn | 68-84 |
| 09/11/26 | H | Marshall | 84-74 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Youngstown State | 89-65 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Brigham Young | 83-94 |
| 19/03/26 | H | TCU | 64-66 |
| 13/03/26 | A | Michigan | 67-71 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Iowa | 72-69 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Indiana | 91-78 |
| 05/03/26 | A | Penn State | 94-62 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Purdue | 82-74 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Morgan State | 85-70 |
| 09/11/26 | H | McDaniel | 91-61 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Marist | 80-88 |
| 02/11/26 | A | George Mason | 54-82 |
| 17/03/26 | A | Howard | 83-86 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Vermont | 74-59 |
| 10/03/26 | H | UMass Lowell | 91-69 |
| 07/03/26 | H | New Hampshire Wildcats | 84-69 |
| 03/03/26 | A | NJIT | 91-52 |
| 28/02/26 | A | UMass Lowell | 84-60 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWWL | 50% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 81.0 | 86.5 | 75.5 |
| Allowed / game | 79.2 | 69.5 | 89.0 |
| Point differential | +1.8 | +17.0 | -13.5 |
| Avg total | 160.2 | 156.0 | 164.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWW | 50% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 77.5 | 88.0 | 67.0 |
| Allowed / game | 75.2 | 65.5 | 85.0 |
| Point differential | +2.2 | +22.5 | -18.0 |
| Avg total | 152.8 | 153.5 | 152.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UCLA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 101.3 | 58.3 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  Nebraska | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 60.7 | +28.3 |
| 3 |  Rutgers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 56.3 | +28.3 |
| 4 |  Michigan State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 93.0 | 66.2 | +26.8 |
| 5 |  Oregon | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 68.7 | +26.3 |
| 6 |  Indiana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 68.0 | +21.0 |
| 7 |  Wisconsin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 58.0 | +21.0 |
| 8 |  Minnesota | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 78.8 | 58.5 | +20.2 |
| 9 |  USC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.3 | 71.3 | +17.0 |
| 10 |  Washington | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 70.0 | +13.5 |
| 11 |  Illinois | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 104.5 | 71.2 | +33.2 |
| 12 |  Purdue | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 78.5 | 69.0 | +9.5 |
| 13 |  Northwestern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 70.8 | 61.8 | +9.0 |
| 14 |  Iowa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 64.7 | +20.3 |
| 15 |  Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.7 | 74.3 | +7.3 |
| 16 |  Penn State | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 77.6 | 75.6 | +2.0 |
| 17 | Ohio State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.0 | 79.2 | +1.8 |
| 18 |  Maryland | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 84.3 | 80.0 | +4.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UMass Lowell | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.2 | 62.8 | +16.5 |
| 2 |  Binghamton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 70.0 | 66.5 | +3.5 |
| 3 |  Vermont | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 78.5 | 65.2 | +13.2 |
| 4 | UMBC Retrievers | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 77.5 | 75.2 | +2.2 |
| 5 |  Maine Black Bears | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 64.2 | 72.0 | -7.8 |
| 6 |  Bryant University | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 60.2 | 71.8 | -11.6 |
| 7 |  NJIT | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 54.8 | 80.2 | -25.4 |
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