Olimpia Milano will face Crvena zvezda on 17 November 2026 in the EuroLeague, a clash that pits a team on a starkly different run against a formidable opponent. Milano have struggled, going 1-9 in all games this season with 81.1 points scored and 89.6 allowed per game, and they have managed only one win at home out of five, 85.4 points for and 91.4 against, while their last five games included two wins and three losses, including a 88-86 home victory over Trento and a 73-84 loss to Valencia. In contrast, Crvena zvezda are 7-3 overall, averaging 83.2 points scored and 75.0 allowed, and they have been unbeaten in their last five outings, winning all four road games with 76.2 points for and 70.5 against. The two clubs have met ten times, with Milano winning eight and zvezda two, the most recent encounter on 15 January 2026 ending 104-96 in favour of zvezda. Pythia rates Crvena zvezda as the favourite with a 62% chance of winning against Milano's 38%, projecting a 86-82 score for a total of 167.8 points; the home team line is 1.5 with a 41% chance of covering, and the over/under line is 168.5 with a 47% probability of the over, while the game has a 5% chance of going into overtime. The match will be decided by the teams' recent form and the stark contrast in season performance.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Olimpia Milano win
37.8%fair 2.65
Best odds2.04
Implied47.4%
Edge-9.6pp
Crvena zvezda win
62.2%fair 1.61
Best odds1.90
Implied52.6%
Edge+9.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:34 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Olimpia Milano) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 168 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 167.5.
Over/Under 162.5
Over 162.5
61.8%
@ 1.50+0.3pp
Under 162.5
38.2%
@ 2.40-0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.50
Marathon Be
1.48
Under
1xBet
2.40
Over/Under 167.5 · main line
Over 167.5
49.8%
@ 1.91-1.0pp
Under 167.5
50.2%
@ 1.96+1.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
1xBet
1.96
Marathon Be
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Over/Under 172.5
Over 172.5
37.8%
@ 2.30-2.4pp
Under 172.5
62.2%
@ 1.55+2.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.55
Marathon Be
1.53
📊 3. Team Totals
Olimpia Milano total 79.5
Over 79.5
59.6%
Under 79.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpia Milano total 83.5 · main line
Over 83.5
44.3%
@ 1.87-5.7pp
Under 83.5
55.7%
@ 1.87+5.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
Olimpia Milano total 87.5
Over 87.5
30.1%
Under 87.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crvena zvezda total 80.5
Over 80.5
69.4%
Under 80.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crvena zvezda total 84.5 · main line
Over 84.5
54.3%
@ 1.87+4.3pp
Under 84.5
45.7%
@ 1.87-4.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
Crvena zvezda total 88.5
Over 88.5
38.5%
Under 88.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Olimpia Milano's side (positive = Olimpia Milano win). Pythia's expected margin is -3.4; Olimpia Milano win by 1+ in 33% of simulations.
Spread Olimpia Milano -1.5
MIL -1.5
35.1%
@ 2.11-9.2pp
CZV +1.5
64.9%
@ 1.68+9.2pp
Best 5 market prices
MIL
1xBet
2.11
Marathon Be
2.11
CZV
1xBet
1.68
Marathon Be
1.68
Spread Olimpia Milano +1.5 · main line
MIL +1.5
40.6%
@ 1.92-10.1pp
CZV -1.5
59.4%
@ 1.94+10.1pp
Best 5 market prices
MIL
1xBet
1.92
Marathon Be
1.89
Betano
1.82
Betfair
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
CZV
1xBet
1.94
Marathon Be
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Spread Olimpia Milano +4.5
MIL +4.5
52.4%
@ 1.55-6.9pp
CZV -4.5
47.6%
@ 2.26+6.9pp
Best 5 market prices
MIL
1xBet
1.55
Marathon Be
1.55
CZV
1xBet
2.26
Marathon Be
2.26
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
Olimpia MilanoCrvena zvezda
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Olimpia MilanoLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dubai
#9
L
23-29
23
29
-6
H15/10
Euroleague
Basket Napoli
#2
L
18-25
18
25
-7
A18/10
Lega A
Barcelona
#4
L
21-23
21
23
-2
H22/10
Euroleague
Virtus Bologna
#1
W
22-20
22
20
+2
H25/10
Lega A
Panathinaikos
#1
W
19-18
19
18
+1
A27/10
Euroleague
Olympiacos
#2
L
19-25
19
25
-6
A30/10
Euroleague
Cantu
#16
L
23-27
23
27
-4
A02/11
Lega A
Valencia
#3
L
15-24
15
24
-9
H05/11
Euroleague
Trento
#11
L
26-28
26
28
-2
H08/11
Lega A
Zalgiris Kaunas
#8
W
25-18
25
18
+7
H12/11
Euroleague
44.8Avg total
21.1Scored
23.7Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 42
Last 30 (30)
21.2
21.4
42.6
-0.2
43%
47%
Last 30 at home (16)
23.7
20.6
44.3
+3.1
62%
56%
Last 30 away (14)
18.4
22.3
40.7
-3.9
21%
36%
Last 10 (10)
21.1
23.7
44.8
-2.6
30%
70%
Last 5 (5)
21.6
24.4
46.0
-2.8
20%
80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)
20.4
22.2
42.6
-1.9
38%
62%
vs Similar (6)
20.5
22.3
42.8
-1.8
33%
50%
vs Weaker (16)
21.9
20.6
42.6
+1.3
50%
38%
This opponent (Crvena zvezda) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Crvena zvezdaLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Paris
#14
W
28-18
28
18
+10
H16/10
Euroleague
KK Krka Novo mesto
#19
W
27-18
27
18
+9
A18/10
ABA League
Partizan
#11
L
21-31
21
31
-10
A22/10
Euroleague
Igokea
#11
L
20-36
20
36
-16
A24/10
ABA League
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
34-15
34
15
+19
H27/10
Euroleague
Bayern
#18
W
19-15
19
15
+4
H29/10
Euroleague
Siroki Brijeg
#8
W
28-18
28
18
+10
H01/11
ABA League
Olympiacos
#2
W
19-11
19
11
+8
A06/11
Euroleague
Slovan Bratislava
#9
W
29-28
29
28
+1
H09/11
ABA League
Real Madrid
#5
L
20-38
20
38
-18
A12/11
Euroleague
47.3Avg total
24.5Scored
22.8Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 42
Last 30 (30)
23.1
23.0
46.1
+0.1
50%
70%
Last 30 at home (15)
24.6
21.8
46.4
+2.8
67%
73%
Last 30 away (15)
21.6
24.3
45.9
-2.7
33%
67%
Last 10 (10)
24.5
22.8
47.3
+1.7
70%
80%
Last 5 (5)
23.0
22.0
45.0
+1.0
80%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)
25.0
27.0
52.0
-2.0
0%
100%
vs Similar (14)
22.4
24.9
47.3
-2.4
43%
79%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)
23.6
21.1
44.7
+2.5
60%
60%
This opponent (Olimpia Milano) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st quarter bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
Q1 Spread Olimpia Milano +1 · main line
MIL +1
52.2%
@ 1.82+0.8pp
CZV -1
47.8%
@ 1.92-0.8pp
Q1 Over/Under 42 · main line
Over
51.2%
@ 1.84+0.4pp
Under
48.8%
@ 1.90-0.4pp
Olimpia Milano 1st quarter total 20.5 · main line
Over
52.1%
@ 1.83+1.0pp
Under
47.9%
@ 1.91-1.0pp
Crvena zvezda 1st quarter total 21.5 · main line
Over
49.4%
@ 1.89-0.1pp
Under
50.6%
@ 1.85+0.1pp
Q1 Over/Under 40.5
Over
59.1%
@ 1.61+1.7pp
Under
40.9%
@ 2.17-1.7pp
Q1 Over/Under 43.5
Over
43.1%
@ 2.17+0.5pp
Under
56.9%
@ 1.61-0.5pp
1st quarter 3-way (draw possible)
MIL
43.8%
@ 2.11+0.4pp
Draw
5.4%
@ 14.25-1.1pp
CZV
50.8%
@ 1.83+0.7pp
1st quarter double chance
MIL or draw
49.2%
@ 1.83
MIL or CZV
94.6%
Draw or CZV
56.2%
@ 1.62
Olimpia MilanoLast 10 – 2nd quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dubai
#9
L
26-27
26
27
-1
H15/10
Euroleague
Basket Napoli
#2
W
23-13
23
13
+10
A18/10
Lega A
Barcelona
#4
L
19-21
19
21
-2
H22/10
Euroleague
Virtus Bologna
#1
W
30-17
30
17
+13
H25/10
Lega A
Panathinaikos
#1
L
18-22
18
22
-4
A27/10
Euroleague
Olympiacos
#2
W
25-19
25
19
+6
A30/10
Euroleague
Cantu
#16
W
28-20
28
20
+8
A02/11
Lega A
Valencia
#3
W
22-16
22
16
+6
H05/11
Euroleague
Trento
#11
W
30-20
30
20
+10
H08/11
Lega A
Zalgiris Kaunas
#8
L
16-27
16
27
-11
H12/11
Euroleague
43.9Avg total
23.7Scored
20.2Allowed
2nd quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 41.5
Last 30 (30)
23.4
21.1
44.5
+2.3
53%
67%
Last 30 at home (16)
24.0
21.2
45.2
+2.8
50%
75%
Last 30 away (14)
22.7
20.9
43.6
+1.9
57%
57%
Last 10 (10)
23.7
20.2
43.9
+3.5
60%
60%
Last 5 (5)
24.2
20.4
44.6
+3.8
80%
80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)
20.1
23.2
43.4
-3.1
25%
62%
vs Similar (6)
22.7
19.7
42.3
+3.0
50%
50%
vs Weaker (16)
25.3
20.5
45.8
+4.8
69%
75%
This opponent (Crvena zvezda) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Crvena zvezdaLast 10 – 2nd quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Paris
#14
D
18-18
18
18
+0
H16/10
Euroleague
KK Krka Novo mesto
#19
L
17-24
17
24
-7
A18/10
ABA League
Partizan
#11
L
17-21
17
21
-4
A22/10
Euroleague
Igokea
#11
L
13-14
13
14
-1
A24/10
ABA League
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
21-15
21
15
+6
H27/10
Euroleague
Bayern
#18
W
29-16
29
16
+13
H29/10
Euroleague
Siroki Brijeg
#8
W
27-26
27
26
+1
H01/11
ABA League
Olympiacos
#2
W
21-11
21
11
+10
A06/11
Euroleague
Slovan Bratislava
#9
W
22-18
22
18
+4
H09/11
ABA League
Real Madrid
#5
W
21-18
21
18
+3
A12/11
Euroleague
38.7Avg total
20.6Scored
18.1Allowed
2nd quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 41.5
Last 30 (30)
21.1
20.1
41.2
+1.0
50%
43%
Last 30 at home (15)
22.3
19.9
42.2
+2.5
67%
47%
Last 30 away (15)
19.9
20.4
40.3
-0.5
33%
40%
Last 10 (10)
20.6
18.1
38.7
+2.5
60%
20%
Last 5 (5)
24.0
17.8
41.8
+6.2
100%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)
19.0
29.0
48.0
-10.0
0%
100%
vs Similar (14)
21.1
21.1
42.2
-0.1
36%
50%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)
21.3
18.6
39.9
+2.7
67%
33%
This opponent (Olimpia Milano) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd quarter bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
This opponent (Crvena zvezda) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Crvena zvezdaLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Paris
#14
L
44-45
44
45
-1
H16/10
Euroleague
KK Krka Novo mesto
#19
W
53-36
53
36
+17
A18/10
ABA League
Partizan
#11
W
37-23
37
23
+14
A22/10
Euroleague
Igokea
#11
W
48-30
48
30
+18
A24/10
ABA League
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
45-48
45
48
-3
H27/10
Euroleague
Bayern
#18
W
55-42
55
42
+13
H29/10
Euroleague
Siroki Brijeg
#8
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H01/11
ABA League
Olympiacos
#2
L
22-35
22
35
-13
A06/11
Euroleague
Slovan Bratislava
#9
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H09/11
ABA League
Real Madrid
#5
L
43-49
43
49
-6
A12/11
Euroleague
81.2Avg total
43.2Scored
38.0Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 83
Last 30 (30)
42.6
39.5
82.1
+3.1
63%
53%
Last 30 at home (15)
43.4
40.6
84.0
+2.8
60%
53%
Last 30 away (15)
41.8
38.5
80.3
+3.3
67%
53%
Last 10 (10)
43.2
38.0
81.2
+5.2
60%
50%
Last 5 (5)
41.0
39.6
80.6
+1.4
60%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)
38.0
47.0
85.0
-9.0
0%
100%
vs Similar (14)
40.3
39.2
79.5
+1.1
57%
50%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)
45.1
39.3
84.4
+5.7
73%
53%
This opponent (Olimpia Milano) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half Spread Olimpia Milano +1 · main line
MIL +1
46.5%
@ 1.82-4.9pp
CZV -1
53.5%
@ 1.92+4.9pp
2nd half Over/Under 83 · main line
Over
49.0%
@ 1.87-1.0pp
Under
51.0%
@ 1.87+1.0pp
Olimpia Milano 2nd half total 41 · main line
Over
46.8%
@ 1.88-2.9pp
Under
53.2%
@ 1.86+2.9pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
MIL
40.4%
@ 2.11-3.0pp
Draw
4.1%
@ 13.75-2.5pp
CZV
55.5%
@ 1.83+5.6pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 61.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 63.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Olimpia Milanotheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Olimpia Milano: 88.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
36.9
21.1
57.2%
55.2%
42.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.2
9.3
35.5%
35.7%
27.9
🏀Free throws
25.1
18.0
71.7%
77.1%
18.0
Their opponents take 63.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Crvena zvezdatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Crvena zvezda: 78.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
38.7
19.9
51.4%
55.2%
39.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.0
8.2
30.4%
35.7%
24.6
🏀Free throws
19.1
14.0
73.3%
77.1%
14.0
Their opponents take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 62.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 58.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Olimpia Milanotheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Olimpia Milano: 82.9 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.7 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.5
19.8
52.8%
55.2%
39.7
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
24.5
9.2
37.5%
35.7%
27.6
🏀Free throws
21.0
15.6
74.6%
77.1%
15.6
Their opponents take 62.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Crvena zvezdatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Crvena zvezda: 73.9 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.3 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.8 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
31.3
17.7
56.4%
55.2%
35.3
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.3
8.9
34.0%
35.7%
26.8
🏀Free throws
15.8
11.7
74.3%
77.1%
11.7
Their opponents take 57.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Olimpia Milano
LWLWLLLLWL
Crvena zvezda
LWWWWWWLWW
#19
League position
#6
-1.4
Net rating
+14.0
100.0
Offensive rating
106.5
101.4
Defensive rating
92.5
55.5%
Effective FG%
59.7%
55.5%
Opp. effective FG%
49.0%
16.5%
Turnover %
13.2%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.30
36.0%
3-point %
37.9%
66.8%
Assist %
71.3%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
80%
Profile
■ Olimpia Milano■ Crvena zvezda
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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