Pesaro faces Mestre on 7 November 2026 in Serie A2, with the model designating Pesaro as the favourite, a 75% chance of victory, largely because the side has a 5-2 record, averages 81.3 points and allows 76.9, and sits in fifth place, while Mestre sits twelfth with a 3-4 record, 73.0 points scored and 76.3 allowed; Pesaro's home form is 3-1, 79.2 points for and 75.5 against, and their last five games include a 76-68 win over Cividale, a 70-79 loss to Avellino Basket, and a 71-73 defeat to Basket Torino, whereas Mestre's road record is 1-2, 75.0 points for and 75.0 against, with recent results of a 70-63 win over Brindisi, a 70-77 loss to Caserta, and a 93-71 victory over Ruvo Di Puglia; the two teams have met twice before, both times Pesaro winning, the most recent being a 93-75 triumph on 21 March 2026; Pythia projects an 84-76 score, 160.2 total points, an 8.5-point home line with a 47% chance of covering, and a 4% overtime probability.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (7) | 81.3 | 76.9 | 158.1 | +4.4 | 71% |
| Season at home (4) | 79.2 | 75.5 | 154.8 | +3.8 | 75% |
| Season away (3) | 84.0 | 78.7 | 162.7 | +5.3 | 67% |
| Last 10 (10) | 81.8 | 81.6 | 163.4 | +0.2 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.2 | 74.6 | 151.8 | +2.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 70.0 | 79.0 | 149.0 | -9.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (17) | 82.7 | 85.8 | 168.5 | -3.1 | 47% |
| vs Weaker (12) | 85.7 | 77.5 | 163.2 | +8.2 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (7) | 73.0 | 76.3 | 149.3 | -3.3 | 43% |
| Season at home (4) | 71.5 | 77.2 | 148.8 | -5.8 | 50% |
| Season away (3) | 75.0 | 75.0 | 150.0 | +0.0 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 74.3 | 79.4 | 153.7 | -5.1 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.6 | 77.8 | 154.4 | -1.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (16) | 74.9 | 80.9 | 155.8 | -6.1 | 38% |
| vs Similar ◀ (12) | 78.2 | 80.5 | 158.8 | -2.2 | 33% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 83.5 | 74.5 | 158.0 | +9.0 | 50% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 78.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 42.8 | 40.7 | 83.5 | +2.2 | 60% | 70% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 42.7 | 38.8 | 81.5 | +3.9 | 73% | 67% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 43.0 | 42.5 | 85.5 | +0.5 | 47% | 73% |
| Last 10 (10) | 42.8 | 43.6 | 86.4 | -0.8 | 50% | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 40.2 | 42.4 | 82.6 | -2.2 | 40% | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 37.0 | 48.0 | 85.0 | -11.0 | 0% | 100% |
| vs Similar ◀ (17) | 41.8 | 41.6 | 83.4 | +0.1 | 41% | 59% |
| vs Weaker (12) | 44.8 | 38.7 | 83.5 | +6.2 | 92% | 83% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 78.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.3 | 41.9 | 81.2 | -2.6 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 40.6 | 41.4 | 82.1 | -0.8 | 50% | 62% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 37.8 | 42.4 | 80.2 | -4.6 | 29% | 57% |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.6 | 44.1 | 82.7 | -5.5 | 20% | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 40.6 | 42.8 | 83.4 | -2.2 | 20% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (16) | 37.6 | 42.9 | 80.5 | -5.2 | 31% | 69% |
| vs Similar ◀ (12) | 40.2 | 40.8 | 81.1 | -0.6 | 42% | 42% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 47.0 | 40.5 | 87.5 | +6.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mestre over 69.5 | 73.4% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +6.5pp | Won |
| Mestre over 68.5 | 76.5% | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | - | - | - | +5.9pp | Won |
| Mestre over 70.5 | 70.1% | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.38 | - | - | - | +5.5pp | Won |
| Mestre +15.5 | 76.0% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +5.1pp | Won |
| Mestre +14.5 | 73.2% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +5.0pp | Won |
| Pesaro over 77.5 | 72.7% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +4.5pp | Lost |
| Overtime: no | 95.7% | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | +3.8pp | - |
| Mestre +13.5 | 70.3% | 1.35 | 1.40 | 1.31 | - | - | - | +3.7pp | Won |
| Pesaro (regulation) | 72.3% | 1.26 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.25 | - | - | +2.3pp | Lost |
| Pesaro -1.5 | 72.4% | 1.26 | 1.26 | - | - | - | - | -0.3pp | Lost |
| Pesaro win | 74.8% | 1.23 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.22 | -3.0pp | Lost |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 34.7 | 18.1 | 51.5% | 36.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 20.5 | 8.7 | 34.5% | 26.1 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 19.5 | 15.4 | 70.9% | 15.4 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 35.3 | 15.8 | 51.5% | 31.6 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 29.6 | 9.2 | 34.5% | 27.6 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 19.7 | 14.6 | 70.9% | 14.6 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 | Mestre v Pesaro | 75-93 |
| 19/10/25 | Pesaro v Mestre | 90-84 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/26 | A | Avellino Basket | 70-79 |
| 25/10/26 | H | Basket Torino | 71-73 |
| 21/10/26 | H | Cividale | 76-68 |
| 18/10/26 | A | Ruvo Di Puglia | 86-76 |
| 11/10/26 | H | Caserta | 83-77 |
| 04/10/26 | H | JuVi Cremona | 87-84 |
| 27/09/26 | A | Cento | 96-81 |
| 19/05/26 | H | Rimini | 78-91 |
| 16/05/26 | A | Rimini | 96-94 |
| 14/05/26 | A | Rimini | 75-93 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/26 | H | Brindisi | 70-63 |
| 25/10/26 | A | Caserta | 70-77 |
| 21/10/26 | H | Ruvo Di Puglia | 93-71 |
| 18/10/26 | A | Rimini | 76-91 |
| 10/10/26 | H | Sassari | 74-87 |
| 03/10/26 | H | Libertas Livorno | 49-88 |
| 27/09/26 | A | Basket Torino | 79-57 |
| 26/04/26 | A | JuVi Cremona | 82-83 |
| 18/04/26 | H | Libertas Livorno | 82-90 |
| 12/04/26 | A | Verona | 68-87 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWLL | 71% |
| Home | WWWL | 75% |
| Away | WWL | 67% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Win % | 71% | 75% | 67% |
| Points / game | 81.3 | 79.2 | 84.0 |
| Allowed / game | 76.9 | 75.5 | 78.7 |
| Point differential | +4.4 | +3.8 | +5.3 |
| Avg total | 158.1 | 154.8 | 162.7 |
| Over 159.25 | 57% | 50% | 67% |
| Win by 10+ | 29% | 0% | 67% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 50% (2) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWLW | 43% |
| Home | LLWW | 50% |
| Away | WLL | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Win % | 43% | 50% | 33% |
| Points / game | 73.0 | 71.5 | 75.0 |
| Allowed / game | 76.3 | 77.2 | 75.0 |
| Point differential | -3.3 | -5.8 | +0.0 |
| Avg total | 149.3 | 148.8 | 150.0 |
| Over 159.25 | 43% | 50% | 33% |
| Win by 10+ | 29% | 25% | 33% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertas Livorno | 8 | 8 | 0 | 100% | 81.6 | 68.2 | +13.4 |
| 2 | Avellino Basket | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 80.7 | 73.0 | +7.7 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 74.2 | 69.2 | +5.0 | |
| 4 | Rimini | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 82.6 | 71.0 | +11.6 |
| 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 81.3 | 76.9 | +4.4 | |
| 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 79.1 | 75.4 | +3.7 | |
| 7 | Sebastiani Rieti | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 75.0 | 74.9 | +0.1 |
| 8 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 83.7 | 78.3 | +5.4 | |
| 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 76.6 | 73.3 | +3.3 | |
| 10 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 74.9 | 75.1 | -0.2 | |
| 11 | Cividale | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 70.6 | 73.5 | -2.9 |
| 12 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 76.1 | 69.3 | +6.9 | |
| 13 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 73.0 | 76.3 | -3.3 | |
| 14 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 79.8 | 83.5 | -3.7 | |
| 15 | Ruvo Di Puglia | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 78.0 | 84.6 | -6.6 |
| 16 | Vigevano | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 77.7 | 85.6 | -7.9 |
| 17 | Cento | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 72.2 | 82.6 | -10.4 |
| 18 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14% | 75.7 | 81.7 | -6.0 | |
| 19 | Montecatini | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14% | 68.6 | 82.1 | -13.6 |
| 20 | JuVi Cremona | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0% | 73.4 | 80.3 | -6.9 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 18 | 19 | 14 | 73 | |
| 22 | 30 | 12 | 21 | 85 |
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