PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Pittsburgh faces Villanova on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model naming Pittsburgh the clear favourite at 84% because of their perfect 3-0 record, 85.7 points per game and 64.7 allowed per game, while Villanova sits 2-1 with 82.3 points per game and 66.3 allowed. Pittsburgh's three-game season has seen them score an average of 85.7 points and concede 64.7, and they have won both of their home games, averaging 87.5 points and allowing 59.0 at home; their last five games were 4-1, including a 95-57 win over Rider, an 82-76 victory over Penn State away, and an 80-61 win at home against Buffalo. Villanova's season record of 2-1 shows 82.3 points scored and 66.3 allowed, with a 2-3 record in their last five games, highlighted by a 95-66 win over Holy Cross and a 72-74 loss to Notre Dame. In the only prior meeting, Villanova beat Pittsburgh 79-61 on 13 December 2025. The Pythia model projects a 80-68 scoreline, with Pittsburgh winning 84% of the time and Villanova 16%; the projected total is 148.0 points, and the 3% chance of overtime is noted. Pittsburgh's 80 points versus Villanova's 68 points suggest a decisive victory for the home side.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 85.7 | 64.7 | 150.3 | +21.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 87.5 | 59.0 | 146.5 | +28.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 82.0 | 76.0 | 158.0 | +6.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.6 | 69.8 | 146.4 | +6.8 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.8 | 71.0 | 152.8 | +10.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (18) | 66.3 | 76.4 | 142.7 | -10.2 | 17% |
| vs Similar (7) | 74.4 | 71.7 | 146.1 | +2.7 | 57% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 88.0 | 60.6 | 148.6 | +27.4 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 82.3 | 66.3 | 148.7 | +16.0 | 67% |
| Season at home (3) | 82.3 | 66.3 | 148.7 | +16.0 | 67% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 75.6 | 73.3 | 148.9 | +2.3 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.4 | 72.6 | 150.0 | +4.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (5) | 67.8 | 79.4 | 147.2 | -11.6 | 0% |
| vs Similar (6) | 70.3 | 68.8 | 139.2 | +1.5 | 67% |
| vs Weaker (19) | 80.6 | 69.9 | 150.5 | +10.7 | 89% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.5 | 34.9 | 68.5 | -1.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 33.6 | 36.7 | 70.2 | -3.1 | 31% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 33.5 | 32.9 | 66.4 | +0.6 | 50% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.4 | 33.8 | 69.2 | +1.6 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.0 | 36.6 | 77.6 | +4.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (18) | 31.7 | 36.1 | 67.8 | -4.4 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 30.7 | 33.6 | 64.3 | -2.9 | 29% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 44.2 | 32.6 | 76.8 | +11.6 | 80% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.7 | 32.2 | 67.9 | +3.5 | 73% | - |
| Last 30 at home (19) | 36.6 | 30.2 | 66.8 | +6.5 | 79% | - |
| Last 30 away (11) | 34.1 | 35.7 | 69.8 | -1.6 | 64% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.2 | 32.8 | 68.0 | +2.4 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.0 | 32.4 | 69.4 | +4.6 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (5) | 32.0 | 36.4 | 68.4 | -4.4 | 60% | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 32.2 | 31.0 | 63.2 | +1.2 | 67% | - |
| vs Weaker (19) | 37.8 | 31.5 | 69.3 | +6.3 | 79% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/26 | A | Penn State | 82-76 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Buffalo | 80-61 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Rider | 95-57 |
| 11/03/26 | A | NC State | 88-98 |
| 10/03/26 | A | Stanford | 64-63 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Syracuse | 71-69 OT |
| 05/03/26 | H | Florida State | 74-75 |
| 28/02/26 | A | California | 72-56 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Stanford | 67-75 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Notre Dame | 73-68 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | La Salle | 80-59 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Holy Cross | 95-66 |
| 01/11/26 | H | Notre Dame | 72-74 |
| 20/03/26 | H | Utah State | 76-86 |
| 13/03/26 | H | Georgetown | 64-78 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Xavier | 91-78 |
| 05/03/26 | A | DePaul | 76-57 |
| 01/03/26 | A | St. John's (N.Y.) | 57-89 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Butler | 82-73 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Uconn | 63-73 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 85.7 | 87.5 | 82.0 |
| Allowed / game | 64.7 | 59.0 | 76.0 |
| Point differential | +21.0 | +28.5 | +6.0 |
| Avg total | 150.3 | 146.5 | 158.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWW | 67% |
| Home | LWW | 67% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 67% | 67% | - |
| Points / game | 82.3 | 82.3 | - |
| Allowed / game | 66.3 | 66.3 | - |
| Point differential | +16.0 | +16.0 | - |
| Avg total | 148.7 | 148.7 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 67% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Louisville | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 63.5 | +32.0 |
| 2 |  Virginia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 93.0 | 66.2 | +26.8 |
| 3 |  SMU Mustangs | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 92.7 | 68.3 | +24.3 |
| 4 |  Boston College | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 76.3 | 53.0 | +23.3 |
| 5 |  Notre Dame | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 87.5 | 64.2 | +23.2 |
| 6 |  Virginia Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 92.3 | 69.7 | +22.7 |
| 7 |  NC State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 62.3 | +22.3 |
| 8 | Pittsburgh | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 64.7 | +21.0 |
| 9 |  North Carolina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.3 | 68.3 | +20.0 |
| 10 |  Georgia Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.0 | 69.7 | +15.3 |
| 11 |  Stanford | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 82.0 | 67.0 | +15.0 |
| 12 |  Clemson | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 74.0 | +12.3 |
| 13 |  California | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.5 | 75.2 | +12.2 |
| 14 |  Duke | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 90.0 | 60.3 | +29.7 |
| 15 |  Syracuse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 63.3 | +22.0 |
| 16 |  Miami (FL) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 79.7 | 61.7 | +18.0 |
| 17 |  Wake Forest | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 72.0 | 66.7 | +5.3 |
| 18 |  Florida State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.3 | 87.0 | -9.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xavier | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 53.3 | +37.7 |
| 2 |  Uconn | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 54.7 | +30.0 |
| 3 |  St. John's (N.Y.) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 90.7 | 62.3 | +28.3 |
| 4 |  DePaul | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 80.3 | 61.7 | +18.7 |
| 5 |  Georgetown | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 70.0 | +13.0 |
| 6 |  Seton Hall | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 67.0 | 54.7 | +12.3 |
| 7 |  Marquette | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.3 | 53.0 | +27.3 |
| 8 |  Butler | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 92.0 | 75.0 | +17.0 |
| 9 | Villanova | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 82.3 | 66.3 | +16.0 |
| 10 |  Providence | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.0 | 59.3 | +13.7 |
| 11 |  Creighton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.3 | 68.3 | +12.0 |
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