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Villanova vs Holy Cross Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 88-64
Projected total 152.7
Final 95-66
44-28 51-38
Position#194
Record0-1
FormWWLLL
Points / game72.0
Allowed / game74.0
Villanova 🏆
USA
Vs
98%
■ VILL 98%■ HOLY 2%
Pythia win probability
Holy Cross
USA
Position#404
Record0-1
FormLLWLL
Points / game59.0
Allowed / game103.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Villanova hosts Holy Cross on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model rates Villanova as the clear favourite, giving them a 98% chance to win versus 2% for Holy Cross, a reflection of their season totals and defensive strength. Villanova's single game record is 0-1, with 72.0 points scored and 74.0 points allowed, while Holy Cross also sits at 0-1, scoring 59.0 and conceding 103.0, placing them 258th and 412th in the league respectively. Villanova's lone home outing ended 72-74 at home to Notre Dame, and they have lost three of their last five, whereas Holy Cross's road record is 0-1 and they have lost four of five, with a recent 82-77 win over Lafayette. No head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a score of 88-64 for Villanova, with a total of 152.7 points; the over/under line is 151.5 with a 53% chance of the over, and the probability of Villanova covering the spread is 98%. The game is expected to finish in regulation with a 1% chance of overtime, and the final concrete fact is that Villanova's only home loss came against Notre Dame.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Villanova winWon
97.7%fair 1.02
Best odds1.01
Implied94.5%
Edge+3.2pp
Holy Cross winLost
2.3%fair 44.00
Best odds100.00
Implied5.5%
Edge-3.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VillanovaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Creighton
#238
W
80-69
80
69
+11
A14/02
NCAA
Xavier
#248
W
92-89 OT
92
89
+3
A17/02
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
63-73
63
73
-10
H21/02
NCAA
Butler
#208
W
82-73
82
73
+9
H26/02
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
57-89
57
89
-32
A01/03
NCAA
DePaul
#213
W
76-57
76
57
+19
A05/03
NCAA
Xavier
#248
W
91-78
91
78
+13
H07/03
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
L
64-78
64
78
-14
H13/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
76-86
76
86
-10
H20/03
NCAA
Notre Dame
#114
L
72-74
72
74
-2
H01/11
NCAA
1H
2H
41-27
39-42
43-42
38-39
32-34
31-39
42-28
40-45
23-48
34-41
26-24
50-33
44-32
47-46
31-35
33-43
39-37
37-49
35-31
37-43
151.9Avg total
75.3Scored
76.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)72.074.0146.0-2.00%
Season at home (1)72.074.0146.0-2.00%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)75.376.6151.9-1.350%
Last 5 (5)75.874.6150.4+1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)66.880.8147.5-14.00%
vs Similar (7)70.669.6140.1+1.057%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)79.770.2149.9+9.689%
This opponent (Holy Cross) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Holy CrossUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lehigh
#197
W
76-67
76
67
+9
H07/02
NCAA
Colgate
#168
L
70-74
70
74
-4
H11/02
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#314
L
73-83
73
83
-10
A15/02
NCAA
Lafayette
#317
L
83-86
83
86
-3
H18/02
NCAA
Bucknell
#339
W
72-63
72
63
+9
A22/02
NCAA
Boston University
#211
L
63-78
63
78
-15
A26/02
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#314
L
62-76
62
76
-14
H28/02
NCAA
Lafayette
#317
W
82-77
82
77
+5
A04/03
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
66-69
66
69
-3
A06/03
NCAA
Rhode Island
#53
L
59-103
59
103
-44
A04/11
NCAA
1H
2H
29-30
47-37
23-33
47-41
27-30
46-53
49-33
34-53
31-30
41-33
33-38
30-40
24-37
38-39
34-39
48-38
26-31
40-38
27-58
32-45
148.2Avg total
70.6Scored
77.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)59.0103.0162.0-44.00%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)59.0103.0162.0-44.00%
Last 10 (10)70.677.6148.2-7.030%
Last 5 (5)66.480.6147.0-14.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)66.077.2143.2-11.217%
vs Similar (10)71.872.0143.8-0.250%
vs Weaker (1)77.053.0130.0+24.0100%
This opponent (Villanova) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
65.0%
@ 1.66+1.6pp
Under 146.5
35.0%
@ 2.60-1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.66
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.47
Over/Under 151.5 · main lineActual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
53.0%
@ 1.90+3.0pp
Under 151.5
47.0%
@ 1.90-3.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Over 156.5
Over 156.5
40.6%
@ 2.60+4.0pp
Under 156.5
59.4%
@ 1.47-4.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

Villanova total 87.5Actual: Villanova over 87.5
Over 87.5
53.7%
@ 1.42-9.8pp
Under 87.5
46.3%
@ 2.47+9.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.47
Villanova total 91.5 · main lineActual: Villanova over 91.5
Over 91.5
37.7%
@ 1.85-13.1pp
Under 91.5
62.3%
@ 1.93+13.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Villanova total 95.5Actual: Villanova under 95.5
Over 95.5
23.7%
@ 2.45-13.4pp
Under 95.5
76.3%
@ 1.44+13.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.44
Holy Cross total 55.5Actual: Holy Cross over 55.5
Over 55.5
81.1%
@ 1.38+12.9pp
Under 55.5
18.9%
@ 3.20-12.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.31
Under
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.62
Holy Cross total 59.5 · main lineActual: Holy Cross over 59.5
Over 59.5
68.5%
@ 1.91+18.5pp
Under 59.5
31.5%
@ 1.86-18.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Holy Cross total 63.5Actual: Holy Cross over 63.5
Over 63.5
53.1%
@ 2.42+15.8pp
Under 63.5
46.9%
@ 1.44-15.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.44

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Villanova -35Actual: Holy Cross +35
VILL -35
no forecast
@ 2.35
HOLY +35
no forecast
@ 1.80
Best 5 market prices
VILL
Bet365
2.35
Pinnacle
2.00
Marathon Be
1.98
HOLY
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathon Be
1.74
Bet365
1.54
Spread Villanova -32 · main lineActual: Holy Cross +32
VILL -32
no forecast
@ 1.95
HOLY +32
no forecast
@ 1.86
Best 5 market prices
VILL
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.85
HOLY
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Spread Villanova -29Push
VILL -29
no forecast
@ 1.62
HOLY +29
no forecast
@ 2.15
Best 5 market prices
VILL
Bet365
1.62
HOLY
Bet365
2.15

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +1.8+1.81st half: -5.6-5.62nd half2nd half: -3.4-3.42nd half: -1.4-1.4
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +1.8+1.81st half: -5.6-5.62nd half2nd half: -3.4-3.42nd half: -1.4-1.4
VillanovaHoly Cross
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VillanovaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Creighton
#238
W
41-27
41
27
+14
A14/02
NCAA
Xavier
#248
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A17/02
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H21/02
NCAA
Butler
#208
W
42-28
42
28
+14
H26/02
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
23-48
23
48
-25
A01/03
NCAA
DePaul
#213
W
26-24
26
24
+2
A05/03
NCAA
Xavier
#248
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H07/03
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
L
31-35
31
35
-4
H13/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H20/03
NCAA
Notre Dame
#114
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H01/11
NCAA
69.4Avg total
35.6Scored
33.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)35.632.468.0+3.273%37%
Last 30 at home (18)36.430.667.0+5.978%33%
Last 30 away (12)34.335.169.4-0.867%42%
Last 10 (10)35.633.869.4+1.870%30%
Last 5 (5)35.031.866.8+3.280%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)31.237.869.0-6.550%50%
vs Similar (7)32.631.063.6+1.671%0%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)37.631.769.4+5.979%47%
This opponent (Holy Cross) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Holy CrossLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lehigh
#197
L
29-30
29
30
-1
H07/02
NCAA
Colgate
#168
L
23-33
23
33
-10
H11/02
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#314
L
27-30
27
30
-3
A15/02
NCAA
Lafayette
#317
W
49-33
49
33
+16
H18/02
NCAA
Bucknell
#339
W
31-30
31
30
+1
A22/02
NCAA
Boston University
#211
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A26/02
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#314
L
24-37
24
37
-13
H28/02
NCAA
Lafayette
#317
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A04/03
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
26-31
26
31
-5
A06/03
NCAA
Rhode Island
#53
L
27-58
27
58
-31
A04/11
NCAA
66.2Avg total
30.3Scored
35.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)31.235.066.2-3.827%30%
Last 30 at home (14)32.331.063.3+1.343%21%
Last 30 away (16)30.238.568.8-8.212%38%
Last 10 (10)30.335.966.2-5.620%30%
Last 5 (5)28.840.669.4-11.80%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)29.238.167.3-8.86%33%
vs Similar (10)35.633.068.6+2.650%30%
vs Weaker (1)28.020.048.0+8.0100%0%
This opponent (Villanova) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Villanova win
VILL win
no forecast
@ 1.02
HOLY win
no forecast
@ 16.00
1st half Spread Villanova -19.5 · main lineActual: Holy Cross +19.5
VILL -19.5
no forecast
@ 2.47
HOLY +19.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 71.5 · main lineActual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Villanova 1st half total 44 · main linePush
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
Holy Cross 1st half total 26.5 · main lineActual: Holy Cross over 26.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 73Actual: Under 73
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread Villanova -20.5Actual: Holy Cross +20.5
VILL -20.5
no forecast
@ 2.70
HOLY +20.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half Spread Villanova -18.5Actual: Holy Cross +18.5
VILL -18.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
HOLY +18.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 74.5Actual: Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Villanova -17.5Actual: Holy Cross +17.5
VILL -17.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
HOLY +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Over/Under 67.5Actual: Over 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under
no forecast
@ 2.52
1st half Spread Villanova -16.5Actual: Holy Cross +16.5
VILL -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
HOLY +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Spread Villanova -15.5Actual: Villanova -15.5
VILL -15.5
no forecast
@ 1.84
HOLY +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Spread Villanova -14.5Actual: Villanova -14.5
VILL -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
HOLY +14.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Villanova (regulation)
VILL
no forecast
@ 1.02
Draw
no forecast
@ 51.00
HOLY
no forecast
@ 15.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
VILL win + total 151.5
🔒 Pro
HOLY win + total 151.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: VILL leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: HOLY leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Holy Cross over 5874.4%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85		----+24.4ppWon
Holy Cross over 58.571.9%1.86
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
WilliamHill
1.80		+23.1ppWon
Holy Cross over 57.575.2%1.67
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.55		---+22.6ppWon
Holy Cross over 56.578.3%1.56
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.45		---+22.2ppWon
Holy Cross over 5970.9%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85		---+21.1ppWon
Villanova under 94.573.1%1.64
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.52		---+19.5ppLost
Villanova under 95.576.3%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+13.4ppWon
Villanova under 96.579.3%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+13.2ppWon
Holy Cross over 55.581.1%1.34
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.31		---+12.9ppWon
Holy Cross over 54.583.7%1.29
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.26		---+12.5ppWon
Holy Cross over 52.588.2%1.16
Bet365
1.16		----+8.7ppWon
Holy Cross over 53.586.1%1.20
Bet365
1.20		----+8.3ppWon
Villanova (regulation)97.3%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+6.4ppWon
Holy Cross over 51.590.0%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+6.2ppWon
Holy Cross over 50.591.7%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+6.1ppWon
Villanova win97.7%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+3.2ppWon
Over 14373.2%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+2.7ppWon
Over 125.595.5%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+2.7ppWon
Over 142.573.7%1.30
Bet365
1.30		----+2.3ppWon
Over 126.594.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+2.1ppWon
Over 130.591.7%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+2.0ppWon
Over 140.577.6%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+1.5ppWon
Over 14471.1%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+1.1ppWon
Over 131.590.7%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+1.1ppWon
Over 135.585.8%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+0.3ppWon
Over 143.571.7%1.30
Bet365
1.30		----+0.2ppWon
Under 176.593.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.2ppWon
Over 141.575.7%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----0.4ppWon
Under 175.592.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----0.6ppWon
Villanova over 76.588.6%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----1.0ppWon
Over 136.584.4%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----1.2ppWon
Under 171.587.9%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----1.8ppWon
Under 170.586.6%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----3.1ppWon
Villanova over 78.584.2%1.06
Bet365
1.06		-----3.7ppWon
Under 166.580.5%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----4.6ppWon
Under 161.570.8%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----5.4ppWon
Villanova over 80.578.9%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----5.5ppWon
Villanova -11.586.4%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----5.8ppWon
Under 165.578.7%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----6.8ppWon
Villanova over 82.572.6%1.16
Bet365
1.16		-----6.9ppWon
Villanova -16.574.9%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----14.1ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Villanova wins
0
Holy Cross wins
No previous meetings.
Villanovalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/11/26HNotre Dame72-74
20/03/26HUtah State76-86
13/03/26HGeorgetown64-78
07/03/26HXavier91-78
05/03/26ADePaul76-57
01/03/26ASt. John's (N.Y.)57-89
26/02/26HButler82-73
21/02/26HUconn63-73
17/02/26AXavier92-89 OT
14/02/26ACreighton80-69
Holy Crosslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/11/26ARhode Island59-103
06/03/26ALehigh66-69
04/03/26ALafayette82-77
28/02/26HLoyola Maryland62-76
26/02/26ABoston University63-78
22/02/26ABucknell72-63
18/02/26HLafayette83-86
15/02/26ALoyola Maryland73-83
11/02/26HColgate70-74
07/02/26HLehigh76-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Villanova
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
HomeL0%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %0%0%-
Points / game72.072.0-
Allowed / game74.074.0-
Point differential-2.0-2.0-
Avg total146.0146.0-
Over 151.50%0%-
Win by 10+0%0%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
Holy Cross
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
Home--
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %0%-0%
Points / game59.0-59.0
Allowed / game103.0-103.0
Point differential-44.0--44.0
Avg total162.0-162.0
Over 151.5100%-100%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Xavier110100%97.052.0+45.0
2 Uconn110100%86.046.0+40.0
3 Butler220100%97.562.5+35.0
4 Marquette110100%78.043.0+35.0
5 Providence110100%83.056.0+27.0
6 Georgetown110100%80.058.0+22.0
7 Creighton220100%79.558.0+21.5
8 Seton Hall220100%66.551.0+15.5
9 St. John's (N.Y.)110100%78.063.0+15.0
10 DePaul220100%78.569.0+9.5
11 Villanova1010%72.074.0-2.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Patriot League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston University110100%93.085.0+8.0
2 Army21150%84.062.5+21.5
3 Lafayette21150%82.081.5+0.5
4 Lehigh21150%69.078.0-9.0
5 Navy21150%52.575.5-23.0
6 Colgate1010%76.090.0-14.0
7 Loyola Maryland1010%58.080.0-22.0
8 American University1010%53.079.0-26.0
9 Bucknell1010%67.096.0-29.0
10 Holy Cross1010%59.0103.0-44.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Villanova445195
Holy Cross283866
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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