Plunges Olimpas face Ukmerges Stekas on 14 November 2026 in the NKL, with the model designating Plunges Olimpas as the clear favourite thanks to their 7-6 season record, 82.5 points per game and only 79.9 allowed, a stark contrast to Ukmerges Stekas' 4-9 record, 77.6 points scored and 87.9 allowed; the Pythia model gives Plunges Olimpas an 88% chance of victory and 90-76 projected score, while Ukmerges Stekas has a 12% chance and 76 points. Plunges Olimpas have been solid at home, going 4-1 with 92.8 points per game and 78.4 allowed, and have won two of their last five games, though they lost 82-93 to Jurbarkas on 12 November and 76-87 to Alytaus Patriotai on 5 November; Ukmerges Stekas, meanwhile, have struggled on the road, 1-4 with 78.2 points per game and 94.6 allowed, winning only one of their last five, a 76-69 victory over Rytas at home on 12 November. In their six meetings, Ukmerges Stekas lead 4-2, most recently winning 98-82 on 26 February 2026. The model sets a -11.0 line for Plunges Olimpas with a 59% chance of covering, a 168.0 total with a 45% over probability, and a 3% chance of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (13) | 82.5 | 79.9 | 162.5 | +2.6 | 54% |
| Season at home (5) | 92.8 | 78.4 | 171.2 | +14.4 | 80% |
| Season away (8) | 76.1 | 80.9 | 157.0 | -4.8 | 38% |
| Last 10 (10) | 82.0 | 77.2 | 159.2 | +4.8 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.4 | 78.0 | 159.4 | +3.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 81.5 | 94.0 | 175.5 | -12.5 | 20% |
| vs Similar (12) | 84.6 | 81.8 | 166.4 | +2.8 | 58% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (8) | 89.1 | 75.0 | 164.1 | +14.1 | 88% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (13) | 77.6 | 87.9 | 165.5 | -10.3 | 31% |
| Season at home (8) | 77.2 | 83.8 | 161.0 | -6.5 | 38% |
| Season away (5) | 78.2 | 94.6 | 172.8 | -16.4 | 20% |
| Last 10 (10) | 74.0 | 88.6 | 162.6 | -14.6 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 69.6 | 84.6 | 154.2 | -15.0 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (24) | 77.5 | 90.1 | 167.7 | -12.6 | 17% |
| vs Similar (6) | 79.8 | 85.8 | 165.7 | -6.0 | 50% |
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 83.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 42.2 | 40.3 | 82.5 | +1.9 | 60% | 37% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 43.3 | 41.1 | 84.4 | +2.2 | 62% | 44% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 40.9 | 39.4 | 80.3 | +1.4 | 57% | 29% |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.5 | 38.2 | 76.7 | +0.3 | 60% | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.0 | 39.6 | 76.6 | -2.6 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 39.3 | 45.3 | 84.6 | -6.0 | 20% | 40% |
| vs Similar (12) | 43.8 | 38.2 | 82.0 | +5.7 | 75% | 33% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (8) | 43.2 | 37.2 | 80.5 | +6.0 | 88% | 38% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 83.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.7 | 45.5 | 82.2 | -8.8 | 17% | 37% |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 36.5 | 44.1 | 80.6 | -7.6 | 22% | 33% |
| Last 30 away (12) | 37.0 | 47.5 | 84.5 | -10.5 | 8% | 42% |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.5 | 48.0 | 83.5 | -12.5 | 10% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 32.8 | 46.4 | 79.2 | -13.6 | 20% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (24) | 36.2 | 45.4 | 81.6 | -9.2 | 17% | 33% |
| vs Similar (6) | 38.7 | 45.7 | 84.3 | -7.0 | 17% | 50% |
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plunges Olimpas -6 | 75.6% | 1.56 | 1.56 | - | - | - | - | +17.3pp | Lost |
| Plunges Olimpas -6.5 | 73.3% | 1.53 | 1.60 | 1.46 | - | - | - | +16.4pp | Lost |
| Plunges Olimpas over 81.5 | 79.8% | 1.36 | 1.36 | - | - | - | - | +15.4pp | Won |
| Plunges Olimpas over 80.5 | 82.5% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +15.0pp | Won |
| Plunges Olimpas -7 | 72.5% | 1.55 | 1.55 | - | - | - | - | +13.8pp | Lost |
| Plunges Olimpas -7.5 | 70.2% | 1.55 | 1.75 | 1.59 | 1.31 | - | - | +13.0pp | Lost |
| Plunges Olimpas -5.5 | 76.3% | 1.39 | 1.39 | - | - | - | - | +12.4pp | Lost |
| Plunges Olimpas -4.5 | 79.1% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +11.7pp | Lost |
| Plunges Olimpas over 83.5 | 73.6% | 1.36 | 1.36 | - | - | - | - | +9.0pp | Won |
| Plunges Olimpas over 84.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | 1.42 | - | - | - | - | +8.9pp | Won |
| Plunges Olimpas over 82.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +8.8pp | Won |
| Plunges Olimpas (regulation) | 86.2% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +8.6pp | Lost |
| Ukmerges Stekas over 69.5 | 74.9% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +6.0pp | Won |
| Ukmerges Stekas over 70.5 | 71.6% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +5.9pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 97.4% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +5.3pp | Won |
| Plunges Olimpas win | 87.9% | 1.12 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.13 | +3.9pp | Lost |
| Ukmerges Stekas under 82.5 | 73.1% | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | - | - | - | +2.4pp | Lost |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 42.1 | 22.4 | 54.5% | 44.8 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 19.0 | 6.2 | 31.3% | 18.6 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 20.3 | 14.5 | 67.1% | 14.5 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 41.5 | 21.5 | 54.5% | 43.0 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 29.2 | 9.3 | 31.3% | 27.9 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 19.4 | 13.1 | 67.1% | 13.1 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 26/02/26 | Plunges Olimpas v Ukmerges Stekas | 98-82 |
| 11/01/26 | Plunges Olimpas v Ukmerges Stekas | 81-84 |
| 25/10/25 | Ukmerges Stekas v Plunges Olimpas | 89-87 |
| 27/02/25 | Plunges Olimpas v Ukmerges Stekas | 77-65 |
| 04/01/25 | Ukmerges Stekas v Plunges Olimpas | 71-60 |
| 05/10/24 | Plunges Olimpas v Ukmerges Stekas | 73-93 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | Jurbarkas | 82-93 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Zalgiris Kaunas 2 | 101-78 |
| 05/11/26 | A | Alytaus Patriotai | 76-87 |
| 31/10/26 | H | Vilkaviskis | 91-73 |
| 29/10/26 | A | Neptunas 2 | 57-59 |
| 24/10/26 | A | Kedainiai BC | 75-62 |
| 22/10/26 | A | Mazeikiai | 80-72 |
| 17/10/26 | H | Rytas 2 | 89-64 |
| 15/10/26 | A | BC Olimpas Palanga | 76-102 |
| 10/10/26 | A | Omega-Tauras | 93-82 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Rytas 2 | 76-69 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Alytaus Patriotai | 58-73 |
| 05/11/26 | A | Vilkaviskis | 74-97 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Neptunas 2 | 64-87 |
| 29/10/26 | A | Kedainiai BC | 76-97 |
| 24/10/26 | H | Mazeikiai | 74-70 |
| 22/10/26 | A | Telsiai | 70-104 |
| 17/10/26 | H | BC Olimpas Palanga | 76-107 |
| 15/10/26 | H | Omega-Tauras | 73-87 |
| 10/10/26 | A | Kretinga | 99-95 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLWL | 54% |
| Home | LWWWW | 80% |
| Away | WWLLL | 38% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 5 | 8 |
| Win % | 54% | 80% | 38% |
| Points / game | 82.5 | 92.8 | 76.1 |
| Allowed / game | 79.9 | 78.4 | 80.9 |
| Point differential | +2.6 | +14.4 | -4.8 |
| Avg total | 162.5 | 171.2 | 157.0 |
| Over 166.25 | 46% | 60% | 38% |
| Win by 10+ | 46% | 80% | 25% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLW | 31% |
| Home | LWLLW | 38% |
| Away | LWLLL | 20% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 8 | 5 |
| Win % | 31% | 38% | 20% |
| Points / game | 77.6 | 77.2 | 78.2 |
| Allowed / game | 87.9 | 83.8 | 94.6 |
| Point differential | -10.3 | -6.5 | -16.4 |
| Avg total | 165.5 | 161.0 | 172.8 |
| Over 166.25 | 54% | 38% | 80% |
| Win by 10+ | 8% | 12% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 67% (3) | 50% (2) | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 8% | 12% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 92% | 90.5 | 73.6 | +16.9 | |
| 2 | Jurbarkas | 12 | 11 | 1 | 92% | 90.4 | 78.0 | +12.4 |
| 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 77% | 94.8 | 84.9 | +9.9 | |
| 4 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 75% | 91.4 | 77.7 | +13.8 | |
| 5 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 73% | 97.4 | 90.4 | +7.0 | |
| 6 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69% | 78.1 | 74.7 | +3.4 | |
| 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 67% | 84.3 | 82.2 | +2.2 | |
| 8 | Alytaus Patriotai | 14 | 8 | 6 | 57% | 83.8 | 84.9 | -1.1 |
| 9 | Omega-Tauras | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 90.5 | 86.2 | +4.2 |
| 10 | Plunges Olimpas | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 82.5 | 79.9 | +2.6 |
| 11 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 94.2 | 96.8 | -2.7 | |
| 12 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 38% | 82.1 | 86.6 | -4.5 | |
| 13 | Kedainiai BC | 13 | 4 | 9 | 31% | 76.5 | 84.1 | -7.5 |
| 14 | Ukmerges Stekas | 13 | 4 | 9 | 31% | 77.6 | 87.9 | -10.3 |
| 15 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 21% | 78.9 | 88.9 | -10.0 | |
| 16 | Kretinga | 13 | 2 | 11 | 15% | 81.5 | 90.7 | -9.2 |
| 17 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 15% | 79.0 | 92.8 | -13.8 | |
| 18 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 8% | 77.0 | 86.4 | -9.4 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plunges Olimpas | 21 | 26 | 26 | 18 | 91 |
| Ukmerges Stekas | 23 | 12 | 29 | 32 | 96 |
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