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Purdue vs Ohio Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 89-65
Projected total 154.2
Final 80-62
37-28 43-34
Position#126
Record2-1
FormWLWLW
Points / game78.0
Allowed / game71.3
Purdue 🏆
USA
Vs
98%
■ PURD 98%■ OHIO 2%
Pythia win probability
Ohio
USA
Position#170
Record2-0
FormLLLWW
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game73.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Purdue hosts Ohio on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Purdue the clear favourite, rating them 98% to win because their season record of 2-1, 78.0 points per game and 71.3 allowed per game outpaces Ohio's 2-0 record, 83.0 points per game and 73.5 allowed per game. Purdue has won 2 of its 3 games, including a 76-59 victory over Illinois State, a 78-72 win over Gonzaga, and a narrow 80-83 loss to Valparaiso, while Ohio has won both of its games, beating N. Carolina A&T 80-70 and South Alabama 86-77, but lost to Kent State 75-86. In their only prior meeting, Purdue beat Ohio 69-51 on 17 December 2019. The Pythia model projects a 89-65 score, with Purdue scoring 89 points and Ohio 65, for a total of 154.2. The home team line is -20.5 with a 62% chance of covering, and the total line is 152.5 with a 54% chance of the over. The overtime probability is 1%. Purdue's dominant season numbers and recent win streak give them a decisive edge in this matchup.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Purdue winWon
97.6%fair 1.02
Best odds1.03
Implied93.6%
Edge+4.0pp
Ohio winLost
2.4%fair 42.48
Best odds17.00
Implied6.4%
Edge-4.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PurdueUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nebraska
#21
W
74-58
74
58
+16
A13/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
W
73-66
73
66
+7
A14/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
80-72
80
72
+8
A15/03
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
W
104-71
104
71
+33
H20/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
79-69
79
69
+10
H22/03
NCAA
Texas
#135
W
79-77
79
77
+2
H26/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
64-79
64
79
-15
A29/03
NCAA
Gonzaga
#272
W
78-72
78
72
+6
H03/11
NCAA
Valparaiso
#165
L
80-83 OT
80
83
-3
H06/11
NCAA
Illinois State
#300
W
76-59
76
59
+17
H10/11
NCAA
1H
2H
41-28
33-30
34-27
39-39
38-38
42-34
45-33
59-38
38-40
41-29
39-35
40-42
38-31
26-48
36-33
42-39
32-20
26-38
36-28
40-31
149.3Avg total
78.7Scored
70.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)78.071.3149.3+6.767%
Season at home (3)78.071.3149.3+6.767%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.770.6149.3+8.180%
Last 5 (5)75.474.0149.4+1.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)74.780.7155.3-6.033%
vs Similar (9)77.869.8147.6+8.078%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)81.972.1154.0+9.972%
This opponent (Ohio) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
OhioUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Old Dominion
#300
L
72-78
72
78
-6
A08/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
74-90
74
90
-16
A14/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
69-57
69
57
+12
H18/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
74-66
74
66
+8
A21/02
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
67-79
67
79
-12
H28/02
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
82-94
82
94
-12
A04/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
108-110 OT
108
110
-2
H07/03
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
75-86
75
86
-11
A12/03
NCAA
South Alabama
#257
W
86-77
86
77
+9
A03/11
NCAA
N. Carolina A&T
#194
W
80-70
80
70
+10
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
35-40
37-38
35-43
39-47
32-15
37-42
37-25
37-41
28-41
39-38
39-37
43-57
48-54
52-46
38-40
37-46
34-35
52-42
38-31
42-39
159.4Avg total
78.7Scored
80.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)83.073.5156.5+9.5100%
Season at home (1)80.070.0150.0+10.0100%
Season away (1)86.077.0163.0+9.0100%
Last 10 (10)78.780.7159.4-2.040%
Last 5 (5)86.287.4173.6-1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)73.885.4159.2-11.610%
vs Similar (15)79.976.0155.9+3.967%
vs Weaker (4)80.564.0144.5+16.5100%
This opponent (Purdue) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147.5Actual: Under 147.5
Over 147.5
66.1%
@ 1.44+2.0pp
Under 147.5
33.9%
@ 2.57-2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 152.5 · main lineActual: Under 152.5
Over 152.5
54.1%
@ 1.89+3.9pp
Under 152.5
45.9%
@ 1.98-3.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.81
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.98
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Over/Under 157.5Actual: Under 157.5
Over 157.5
41.8%
@ 2.32+2.0pp
Under 157.5
58.2%
@ 1.53-2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.32
Under
Betano
1.53

📊 3. Team Totals

Purdue total 83Actual: Purdue under 83
Over 83
73.8%
Under 83
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Purdue total 87 · main lineActual: Purdue under 87
Over 87
58.6%
@ 1.87+8.8pp
Under 87
41.4%
@ 1.85-8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Purdue total 91Actual: Purdue under 91
Over 91
41.8%
Under 91
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ohio total 63Actual: Ohio under 63
Over 63
58.7%
Under 63
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ohio total 67 · main lineActual: Ohio under 67
Over 67
42.1%
@ 1.85-7.9pp
Under 67
57.9%
@ 1.85+7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Ohio total 71Actual: Ohio under 71
Over 71
26.9%
Under 71
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Purdue -22.5Actual: Ohio +22.5
PURD -22.5
54.9%
@ 2.27+14.0pp
OHIO +22.5
45.1%
@ 1.57-14.0pp
Best 5 market prices
PURD
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.25
OHIO
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
Spread Purdue -19.5 · main lineActual: Ohio +19.5
PURD -19.5
65.2%
@ 1.90+14.1pp
OHIO +19.5
34.8%
@ 1.96-14.1pp
Best 5 market prices
PURD
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.83
OHIO
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Spread Purdue -16.5Actual: Purdue -16.5
PURD -16.5
74.3%
@ 1.55+14.8pp
OHIO +16.5
25.7%
@ 2.30-14.8pp
Best 5 market prices
PURD
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
OHIO
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.4+6.41st half: +0.3+0.32nd half2nd half: +2.0+2.02nd half: -2.1-2.1
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.4+6.41st half: +0.3+0.32nd half2nd half: +2.0+2.02nd half: -2.1-2.1
PurdueOhio
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
PurdueLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nebraska
#21
W
41-28
41
28
+13
A13/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
W
34-27
34
27
+7
A14/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A15/03
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H20/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H22/03
NCAA
Texas
#135
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H26/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
W
38-31
38
31
+7
A29/03
NCAA
Gonzaga
#272
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H03/11
NCAA
Valparaiso
#165
W
32-20
32
20
+12
H06/11
NCAA
Illinois State
#300
W
36-28
36
28
+8
H10/11
NCAA
69.0Avg total
37.7Scored
31.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73.5
Last 30 (30)38.733.171.9+5.670%43%
Last 30 at home (17)40.434.274.5+6.276%59%
Last 30 away (13)36.631.868.4+4.862%23%
Last 10 (10)37.731.369.0+6.480%40%
Last 5 (5)36.229.465.6+6.8100%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)36.039.075.0-3.033%67%
vs Similar (9)37.831.969.7+5.978%33%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)39.732.872.4+6.972%44%
This opponent (Ohio) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
OhioLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Old Dominion
#300
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A08/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A14/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
32-15
32
15
+17
H18/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
37-25
37
25
+12
A21/02
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
28-41
28
41
-13
H28/02
NCAA
UMass
#189
W
39-37
39
37
+2
A04/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
48-54
48
54
-6
H07/03
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A12/03
NCAA
South Alabama
#257
L
34-35
34
35
-1
A03/11
NCAA
N. Carolina A&T
#194
W
38-31
38
31
+7
H07/11
NCAA
72.5Avg total
36.4Scored
36.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73.5
Last 30 (30)36.236.272.4-0.150%50%
Last 30 at home (18)37.236.273.4+1.161%44%
Last 30 away (12)34.636.370.9-1.833%58%
Last 10 (10)36.436.172.5+0.340%50%
Last 5 (5)39.439.478.8+0.040%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)34.943.178.0-8.210%60%
vs Similar (15)35.634.269.8+1.460%47%
vs Weaker (4)37.527.264.8+10.2100%25%
This opponent (Purdue) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Purdue win
PURD win
no forecast
@ 1.09
OHIO win
no forecast
@ 7.70
1st half Spread Purdue -11.5 · main lineActual: Ohio +11.5
PURD -11.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
OHIO +11.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 73.5 · main lineActual: Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
Purdue 1st half total 42.5 · main lineActual: Purdue under 42.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
Ohio 1st half total 31 · main lineActual: Ohio under 31
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread Purdue -12.5Actual: Ohio +12.5
PURD -12.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
OHIO +12.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half Spread Purdue -10.5Actual: Ohio +10.5
PURD -10.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
OHIO +10.5
no forecast
@ 1.98
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.60
Under
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.15
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Purdue -13.5Actual: Ohio +13.5
PURD -13.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
OHIO +13.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread Purdue -9.5Actual: Ohio +9.5
PURD -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
OHIO +9.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread Purdue -14.5Actual: Ohio +14.5
PURD -14.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
OHIO +14.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half Spread Purdue -8.5Actual: Purdue -8.5
PURD -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
OHIO +8.5
no forecast
@ 2.32
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Purdue (regulation)
PURD
no forecast
@ 1.11
Draw
no forecast
@ 34.00
OHIO
no forecast
@ 8.90

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
PURD win + total 152.5
🔒 Pro
OHIO win + total 152.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: PURD leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Purdue -1773.6%1.58
Bet365
1.58		----+15.1ppWon
Purdue -17.571.4%1.64
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.62		---+14.9ppWon
Purdue -16.574.3%1.55
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55		---+14.8ppWon
Purdue -15.577.1%1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47		---+14.1ppWon
Purdue -14.579.6%1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40		---+14.0ppWon
Purdue -1676.4%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+13.9ppWon
Purdue -1481.5%1.36
Bet365
1.36		----+13.4ppWon
Purdue -1870.5%1.67
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.66		---+13.4ppPush
Purdue -1579.1%1.41
Bet365
1.41		----+13.4ppWon
Purdue -13.581.9%1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.34		---+13.3ppWon
Purdue -12.584.1%1.29
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.28		---+12.8ppWon
Purdue -1383.7%1.30
Bet365
1.30		----+12.3ppWon
Purdue -1285.8%1.25
Bet365
1.25		----+11.0ppWon
Purdue -11.586.0%1.23
Bet365
1.23		----+10.7ppWon
Purdue (regulation)97.2%1.04
Betano
1.04		----+10.6ppWon
Purdue over 81.577.8%1.34
Betano
1.34		----+10.2ppLost
Purdue over 82.574.7%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+10.1ppLost
Purdue over 83.571.3%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+9.8ppLost
Purdue over 77.587.9%1.16
Bet365
1.16		----+8.4ppWon
Purdue over 75.591.5%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+7.1ppWon
Ohio under 71.574.0%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+6.9ppWon
Ohio under 70.570.6%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+6.9ppWon
Purdue over 73.594.2%1.07
Bet365
1.07		----+6.6ppWon
Purdue over 71.596.1%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+6.5ppWon
Purdue over 69.597.5%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+6.4ppWon
Purdue win97.6%1.02
Betano
1.03
WilliamHill
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Marathon Bet
1.01
Bet365
1.01		+4.0ppWon
Over 145.570.6%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+2.6ppLost
Over 127.595.2%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+2.4ppWon
Over 132.591.2%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+1.5ppWon
Over 142.576.7%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+0.5ppLost
Under 177.592.6%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.4ppWon
Over 137.585.1%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+0.0ppWon
Ohio over 51.591.4%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----0.1ppWon
Ohio over 53.587.8%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----1.8ppWon
Under 172.587.2%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----2.1ppWon
Ohio over 55.583.3%1.06
Bet365
1.06		-----4.6ppWon
Under 167.579.6%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----4.8ppWon
Ohio over 57.577.8%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----6.0ppWon
Ohio over 59.571.4%1.18
Bet365
1.18		-----7.5ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Purdue wins
0
Ohio wins
DateGameScore
18/12/19Ohio v Purdue51-69
Purduelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26HIllinois State76-59
06/11/26HValparaiso80-83 OT
03/11/26HGonzaga78-72
29/03/26AArizona64-79
26/03/26HTexas79-77
22/03/26HMiami (FL)79-69
20/03/26HQueens Royals104-71
15/03/26AMichigan80-72
14/03/26AUCLA73-66
13/03/26ANebraska74-58
Ohiolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HN. Carolina A&T80-70
03/11/26ASouth Alabama86-77
12/03/26AKent State75-86
07/03/26HMiami (Ohio)108-110 OT
04/03/26AUMass82-94
28/02/26HToledo67-79
21/02/26ANorthern Illinois74-66
18/02/26HBall State69-57
14/02/26AMiami (Ohio)74-90
08/02/26AOld Dominion72-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Purdue
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeWLW67%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %67%67%-
Points / game78.078.0-
Allowed / game71.371.3-
Point differential+6.7+6.7-
Avg total149.3149.3-
Over 152.533%33%-
Win by 10+33%33%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %33%33%-
Ohio
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game83.080.086.0
Allowed / game73.570.077.0
Point differential+9.5+10.0+9.0
Avg total156.5150.0163.0
Over 152.550%0%100%
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Nebraska330100%89.060.7+28.3
3 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
4 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
5 Michigan State330100%88.764.3+24.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 Northwestern330100%78.760.0+18.7
10 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
11 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
12 Illinois32167%103.366.3+37.0
13 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
14 Ohio State32167%85.377.7+7.7
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Purdue32167%78.071.3+6.7
17 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
18 Maryland21150%85.076.5+8.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron220100%93.562.5+31.0
2 Central Michigan330100%89.068.7+20.3
3 Bowling Green330100%86.376.0+10.3
4 Ohio220100%83.073.5+9.5
5 Miami (Ohio)220100%83.075.0+8.0
6 Western Michigan43175%79.060.8+18.2
7 Eastern Michigan32167%77.363.3+14.0
8 UMass32167%66.064.3+1.7
9 Northern Illinois42250%81.275.5+5.8
10 Kent State31233%83.375.3+8.0
11 Ball State31233%70.066.7+3.3
12 Buffalo31233%77.779.0-1.3
13 Toledo41325%70.078.5-8.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Purdue374380
Ohio283462
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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