PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Saint Josephs Hawks host Wagner on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Hawks as the clear favourite, rating them 95% to win largely because of their undefeated 3-0 record, 77.3 points per game and 70.0 allowed per game, placing them 98th in the league, while Wagner sits 324th with a 1-3 record, 66.2 points per game and 73.2 allowed per game. The Hawks have gone 2-0 at home, averaging 74.5 points and 65.0 allowed, and are 4-1 over their last five games, including a 83-80 win over South Florida away, a 67-57 win over Lafayette at home and a 82-73 win over Longwood at home; Wagner has gone 0-3 on the road, averaging 49.3 points and 80.7 allowed, and is 1-4 over their last five, with a 117-51 home win over Bryant & Stratton, a 41-83 loss to Uconn away and a 57-83 loss to Miami (FL) away. Their head-to-head history is not listed. Pythia projects a 82-63 score, 145 total points, a 95% chance the Hawks will cover the home line and a 5% chance Wagner will win, with a 1% chance of overtime. The Hawks' recent 83-80 away win over South Florida shows their resilience.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 77.3 | 70.0 | 147.3 | +7.3 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 74.5 | 65.0 | 139.5 | +9.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 83.0 | 80.0 | 163.0 | +3.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 74.1 | 66.7 | 140.8 | +7.4 | 90% |
| Last 5 (5) | 73.2 | 69.0 | 142.2 | +4.2 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 73.3 | 76.8 | 150.2 | -3.5 | 50% |
| vs Similar (16) | 69.8 | 67.4 | 137.2 | +2.3 | 69% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (7) | 75.6 | 61.9 | 137.4 | +13.7 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 66.2 | 73.2 | 139.5 | -7.0 | 25% |
| Season at home (1) | 117.0 | 51.0 | 168.0 | +66.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 49.3 | 80.7 | 130.0 | -31.3 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 68.4 | 67.6 | 136.0 | +0.8 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 64.2 | 71.4 | 135.6 | -7.2 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 49.3 | 80.7 | 130.0 | -31.3 | 0% |
| vs Similar (16) | 66.9 | 70.3 | 137.2 | -3.4 | 38% |
| vs Weaker (9) | 78.1 | 67.4 | 145.6 | +10.7 | 78% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.4 | 29.9 | 65.3 | +5.5 | 77% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 36.1 | 27.6 | 63.8 | +8.5 | 94% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 34.5 | 32.8 | 67.3 | +1.6 | 54% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.5 | 30.0 | 64.5 | +4.5 | 90% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 32.8 | 31.8 | 64.6 | +1.0 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 32.7 | 34.8 | 67.5 | -2.2 | 50% | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 34.9 | 30.2 | 65.1 | +4.8 | 75% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (7) | 37.6 | 25.1 | 62.7 | +12.4 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.0 | 32.0 | 65.0 | +1.0 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 36.9 | 28.7 | 65.6 | +8.1 | 64% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 29.6 | 34.9 | 64.4 | -5.3 | 25% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 31.0 | 29.5 | 60.5 | +1.5 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 30.2 | 31.4 | 61.6 | -1.2 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 20.7 | 38.7 | 59.3 | -18.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 30.3 | 31.1 | 61.4 | -0.8 | 44% | - |
| vs Weaker (9) | 37.1 | 31.1 | 68.2 | +6.0 | 56% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | South Florida | 83-80 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Lafayette | 67-57 OT |
| 05/11/26 | H | Longwood | 82-73 |
| 14/03/26 | A | VCU Rams | 64-77 |
| 13/03/26 | H | Davidson | 70-58 |
| 07/03/26 | H | La Salle | 88-76 |
| 05/03/26 | A | Davidson | 70-67 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Rhode Island | 61-55 |
| 26/02/26 | H | George Mason | 81-63 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Loyola Chicago | 75-61 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Bryant & Stratton | 117-51 |
| 10/11/26 | A | Uconn | 41-83 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Miami (FL) | 57-83 |
| 04/11/26 | A | Boston College | 50-76 |
| 07/03/26 | A | LIU Sharks | 56-64 |
| 05/03/26 | A | Central Connecticut State | 70-60 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Chicago State | 80-61 |
| 27/02/26 | H | New Haven Chargers | 65-62 |
| 21/02/26 | A | St. Francis (PA) | 65-56 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Mercyhurst Lakers | 83-80 OT |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 77.3 | 74.5 | 83.0 |
| Allowed / game | 70.0 | 65.0 | 80.0 |
| Point differential | +7.3 | +9.5 | +3.0 |
| Avg total | 147.3 | 139.5 | 163.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLW | 25% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Win % | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 66.2 | 117.0 | 49.3 |
| Allowed / game | 73.2 | 51.0 | 80.7 |
| Point differential | -7.0 | +66.0 | -31.3 |
| Avg total | 139.5 | 168.0 | 130.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  St. Louis Billikens | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 102.3 | 71.3 | +31.0 |
| 2 |  George Washington | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 80.0 | 51.8 | +28.2 |
| 3 |  Rhode Island | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 81.2 | 59.2 | +22.0 |
| 4 |  George Mason | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 75.3 | 57.7 | +17.7 |
| 5 |  Davidson | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 75.3 | 60.7 | +14.7 |
| 6 | Saint Josephs Hawks | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 77.3 | 70.0 | +7.3 |
| 7 |  Duquesne | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 66.7 | +6.0 |
| 8 |  Richmond Spiders | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 89.0 | 64.0 | +25.0 |
| 9 |  Fordham | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 76.5 | 72.0 | +4.5 |
| 10 |  St. Bonaventure | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 82.3 | 64.0 | +18.3 |
| 11 |  VCU Rams | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.7 | 70.0 | +15.7 |
| 12 |  Loyola Chicago | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 82.0 | 70.7 | +11.3 |
| 13 |  Dayton | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 84.7 | 79.3 | +5.3 |
| 14 |  La Salle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67.3 | 84.7 | -17.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Central Connecticut State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 65.5 | 79.0 | -13.5 |
| 2 |  Chicago State | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 68.0 | 78.8 | -10.8 |
| 3 |  Fairleigh Dickinson | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 68.2 | 85.0 | -16.8 |
| 4 |  Le Moyne | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 76.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 |  Stonehill | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67.3 | 71.3 | -4.0 |
| 6 |  New Haven Chargers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 58.3 | 70.0 | -11.7 |
| 7 | Wagner | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.2 | 73.2 | -7.0 |
| 8 |  Mercyhurst Lakers | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 61.2 | 70.8 | -9.5 |
| 9 |  LIU Sharks | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 60.8 | 75.0 | -14.2 |
| 10 |  St. Francis (ILL) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 47.0 | 96.0 | -49.0 |
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