San Diego State hosts Bethune-Cookman on 11 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Aztecs the clear favourite, rating them 98% to win largely because of their undefeated 2-0 season record, 89.5 points scored per game and 72.0 allowed, while the Wildcats sit 0-3 with 69.7 points scored and 84.7 allowed. San Diego State has won both games of the season, including a 102-78 home win over CS Fullerton and a 77-66 away victory over Colorado, and their single home game saw 102 points scored and 78 allowed; their last five games feature four wins and one loss. Bethune-Cookman has lost all three games, with recent defeats of 81-99 to Grand Canyon, 58-76 to Texas Tech and 70-79 at home to Furman, and their two road games yielded 69.5 points scored and 87.5 allowed. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. The Pythia projection gives a 89-64 score, 153 total points, a home line of -18.5 with a 70% chance the Aztecs cover, a total line of 152.5 with a 51% chance of the over, and a 1% chance of overtime. The Aztecs' recent 102-78 home win shows their offensive potency in front of a home crowd.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
San Diego State winWon
97.9%fair 1.02
Best odds1.04
Implied92.7%
Edge+5.2pp
Bethune-Cookman winLost
2.1%fair 47.12
Best odds17.00
Implied7.3%
Edge-5.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 22:27 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (San Diego State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 148.5Actual: Over 148.5
Over 148.5
60.9%
@ 1.55+0.6pp
Under 148.5
39.1%
@ 2.40-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.52
Under
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.27
Over/Under 153.5 · main lineActual: Over 153.5
Over 153.5
48.6%
@ 2.02-0.8pp
Under 153.5
51.4%
@ 1.88+0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.81
Betano
1.78
Over/Under 158.5Actual: Over 158.5
Over 158.5
36.4%
@ 2.75+2.1pp
Under 158.5
63.6%
@ 1.42-2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.65
Under
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
📊 3. Team Totals
San Diego State total 82Actual: San Diego State over 82
Over 82
76.1%
Under 82
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Diego State total 86 · main lineActual: San Diego State over 86
Over 86
61.4%
@ 1.85+11.4pp
Under 86
38.6%
@ 1.85-11.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
San Diego State total 90Actual: San Diego State under 90
Over 90
44.7%
Under 90
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bethune-Cookman total 63Actual: Bethune-Cookman over 63
Over 63
54.9%
Under 63
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bethune-Cookman total 67 · main lineActual: Bethune-Cookman over 67
Over 67
38.4%
@ 1.86-11.5pp
Under 67
61.6%
@ 1.85+11.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Bethune-Cookman total 71Actual: Bethune-Cookman over 71
Over 71
23.8%
Under 71
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread San Diego State -22Actual: Bethune-Cookman +22
SAN -22
59.1%
@ 2.30+18.9pp
BETH +22
40.9%
@ 1.55-18.9pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Bet365
2.30
BETH
Bet365
1.55
Spread San Diego State -19 · main lineActual: Bethune-Cookman +19
SAN -19
69.3%
@ 1.93+19.3pp
BETH +19
30.7%
@ 1.93-19.3pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.85
BETH
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Spread San Diego State -16Actual: Bethune-Cookman +16
SAN -16
78.1%
@ 1.54+17.7pp
BETH +16
21.9%
@ 2.35-17.7pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Bet365
1.54
BETH
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
San Diego StateBethune-Cookman
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (San Diego State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: San Diego State win
SAN win
no forecast
@ 1.19
BETH win
no forecast
@ 4.75
2nd half Spread San Diego State -8.5 · main lineActual: San Diego State -8.5
SAN -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
BETH +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 79.5 · main lineActual: Over 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: San Diego State (regulation)
SAN
no forecast
@ 1.22
Draw
no forecast
@ 22.00
BETH
no forecast
@ 4.70
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
San Diego State -15.5
78.6%
1.54
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Lost
San Diego State -18.5
70.3%
1.83
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.82
+17.9pp
Lost
San Diego State -14.5
81.0%
1.46
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Lost
San Diego State -18
72.4%
1.75
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.71
-
+17.8pp
Lost
San Diego State -16
78.1%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Lost
San Diego State -13.5
83.3%
1.41
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Lost
San Diego State -15
80.6%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Lost
San Diego State -16.5
76.0%
1.64
Marathon Bet
1.70
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.58
-
+16.9pp
Lost
San Diego State -17
75.3%
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.62
-
-
+16.9pp
Lost
San Diego State -17.5
73.2%
1.72
Betano
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.68
-
+16.6pp
Lost
San Diego State -12.5
85.3%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+16.2pp
Won
San Diego State -14
82.9%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Lost
San Diego State -11.5
87.1%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Won
San Diego State -13
85.0%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Push
San Diego State -12
86.9%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Won
San Diego State over 83.5
70.2%
1.60
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
San Diego State over 81.5
76.8%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
San Diego State -11
88.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Won
San Diego State -10.5
88.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
San Diego State over 82.5
73.6%
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
San Diego State over 80.5
79.8%
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
San Diego State -8.5
91.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
San Diego State over 78.5
85.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+10.3pp
Won
Bethune-Cookman under 69.5
70.4%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Lost
San Diego State (regulation)
97.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Marathon Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Bethune-Cookman under 71.5
76.9%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Lost
San Diego State over 76.5
89.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
San Diego State over 75.5
90.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Bethune-Cookman under 70.5
73.8%
1.42
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
Bethune-Cookman under 72.5
79.8%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Lost
San Diego State over 74.5
92.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
San Diego State over 70.5
96.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
San Diego State -3.5
96.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
San Diego State over 72.5
94.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Bethune-Cookman under 74.5
84.9%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Lost
San Diego State +1.5
98.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Bethune-Cookman under 76.5
89.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
San Diego State win
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Marathon Bet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Bet365
1.02
+5.2pp
Won
Bethune-Cookman under 80.5
94.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Bethune-Cookman under 82.5
96.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Bethune-Cookman under 78.5
92.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Over 127.5
94.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Under 177.5
93.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Over 132.5
89.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Over 142.5
74.2%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Over 137.5
83.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Under 172.5
88.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Over 144.5
70.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Bethune-Cookman over 52.5
88.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
San Diego State under 98.5
83.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Under 162.5
72.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Lost
Bethune-Cookman over 53.5
85.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Under 167.5
81.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Bethune-Cookman over 54.5
83.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
San Diego State under 96.5
78.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Bethune-Cookman over 55.5
80.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
San Diego State under 94.5
72.0%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
San Diego State under 95.5
75.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-7.8pp
Won
Bethune-Cookman over 56.5
78.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Bethune-Cookman over 57.5
75.0%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-8.1pp
Won
Bethune-Cookman over 58.5
71.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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