PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
San Diego State hosts Texas Southern on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Aztecs the clear favourite, rating them at 99% to win because they are 3-0 this season, averaging 89.0 points per game while allowing 73.0, and have a 2-0 home record with 95.0 points scored and 76.5 allowed at home. Texas Southern is 1-3 this season, scoring 76.5 and conceding 93.0, and has gone 0-3 on the road, averaging 69.3 points and yielding 98.0. San Diego State's last five games were 4-1, including a 102-78 home win over CS Fullerton, a 88-75 home win over Bethune-Cookman, and a 77-66 away win over Colorado; Texas Southern's last five were 1-4, with a 98-78 home win over CBS Ambassadors but losses to Murray State, LSU, and a recent 78-99 defeat away. The Pythia model gives San Diego State a 99% chance of victory and Texas Southern a 1% chance, projects a 92-62 score for a 153.7 total, and predicts a 0% chance of overtime. The Aztecs' dominant season performance and Texas Southern's struggles on the road make the game a one-sided affair, with the final score likely to mirror the projected 92-62.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 89.0 | 73.0 | 162.0 | +16.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 95.0 | 76.5 | 171.5 | +18.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 77.0 | 66.0 | 143.0 | +11.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 79.5 | 74.1 | 153.6 | +5.4 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 78.6 | 70.8 | 149.4 | +7.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 67.8 | 70.0 | 137.8 | -2.2 | 40% |
| vs Similar (14) | 75.0 | 71.3 | 146.3 | +3.7 | 64% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (11) | 88.1 | 67.1 | 155.2 | +21.0 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 76.5 | 93.0 | 169.5 | -16.5 | 25% |
| Season at home (1) | 98.0 | 78.0 | 176.0 | +20.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 69.3 | 98.0 | 167.3 | -28.7 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.7 | 80.7 | 157.4 | -4.0 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.0 | 91.4 | 167.4 | -15.4 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (11) | 69.2 | 90.4 | 159.5 | -21.2 | 9% |
| vs Similar (10) | 75.6 | 73.5 | 149.1 | +2.1 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (9) | 85.6 | 67.8 | 153.3 | +17.8 | 78% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.6 | 31.6 | 70.2 | +7.0 | 83% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 41.4 | 31.4 | 72.8 | +10.1 | 100% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 35.0 | 31.9 | 66.9 | +3.1 | 62% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.8 | 33.1 | 71.9 | +5.7 | 90% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.4 | 32.4 | 71.8 | +7.0 | 100% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 35.0 | 32.2 | 67.2 | +2.8 | 60% | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 36.4 | 30.9 | 67.3 | +5.4 | 79% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (11) | 43.2 | 32.2 | 75.4 | +11.0 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.8 | 37.8 | 72.6 | -3.1 | 37% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 36.2 | 33.4 | 69.6 | +2.8 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 33.3 | 42.3 | 75.6 | -8.9 | 20% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.8 | 39.0 | 74.8 | -3.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.2 | 41.8 | 77.0 | -6.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (11) | 31.4 | 45.9 | 77.3 | -14.5 | 9% | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 33.8 | 34.2 | 68.0 | -0.4 | 40% | - |
| vs Weaker (9) | 40.0 | 32.0 | 72.0 | +8.0 | 67% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Bethune-Cookman | 88-75 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Colorado | 77-66 |
| 04/11/26 | H | CS Fullerton | 102-78 |
| 14/03/26 | A | Utah State | 62-73 |
| 14/03/26 | H | New Mexico | 64-62 |
| 13/03/26 | H | Colorado State | 71-62 |
| 07/03/26 | H | UNLV | 89-86 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Boise State | 77-86 |
| 28/02/26 | A | New Mexico | 76-81 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Utah State | 89-72 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Murray State | 78-99 |
| 11/11/26 | H | CBS Ambassadors | 98-78 |
| 07/11/26 | A | LSU | 51-92 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Grand Canyon | 79-103 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 74-85 OT |
| 06/03/26 | H | Prairie View A&M | 59-70 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Jackson State | 82-57 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Alcorn State | 92-87 OT |
| 21/02/26 | A | Miss. Valley St. | 71-72 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 83-64 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 89.0 | 95.0 | 77.0 |
| Allowed / game | 73.0 | 76.5 | 66.0 |
| Point differential | +16.0 | +18.5 | +11.0 |
| Avg total | 162.0 | 171.5 | 143.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWL | 25% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Win % | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 76.5 | 98.0 | 69.3 |
| Allowed / game | 93.0 | 78.0 | 98.0 |
| Point differential | -16.5 | +20.0 | -28.7 |
| Avg total | 169.5 | 176.0 | 167.3 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boise State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 114.3 | 71.0 | +43.3 |
| 2 |  Utah State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.7 | 66.7 | +34.0 |
| 3 |  New Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 64.7 | +31.3 |
| 4 |  Grand Canyon | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.3 | 77.0 | +23.3 |
| 5 | San Diego State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 73.0 | +16.0 |
| 6 |  Colorado State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 70.7 | +12.3 |
| 7 |  UNLV | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 88.5 | 78.0 | +10.5 |
| 8 |  Air Force | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 93.5 | 83.8 | +9.8 |
| 9 |  Wyoming | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.7 | 62.0 | +21.7 |
| 10 |  Nevada | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.7 | 73.3 | +8.3 |
| 11 |  Fresno State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 82.7 | 84.0 | -1.3 |
| 12 |  San Jose State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.0 | 81.7 | +1.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.2 | 67.8 | +13.5 |
| 2 |  Grambling St. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 75.5 | 90.0 | -14.5 |
| 3 |  Prairie View A&M | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 75.4 | 82.0 | -6.6 |
| 4 |  Alabama State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 69.7 | 78.7 | -9.0 |
| 5 |  Florida A&M | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 77.8 | 80.8 | -3.0 |
| 6 | Texas Southern | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 76.5 | 93.0 | -16.5 |
| 7 |  Jackson State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.5 | 85.8 | -19.2 |
| 8 |  Bethune-Cookman | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 71.0 | 85.5 | -14.5 |
| 9 |  Alcorn State | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 66.8 | 90.0 | -23.2 |
| 10 |  Miss. Valley St. | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 62.3 | 87.0 | -24.7 |
| 11 |  Southern Univ. | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 60.4 | 88.2 | -27.8 |
| 12 |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 50.3 | 107.0 | -56.7 |
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