San Francisco hosts Portland State on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Gators the favourite, rating them 75% to win largely because they are undefeated 3-0, averaging 72.7 points and allowing 63.3, and sit 82nd in the league, while Portland State is 1-2, averaging 80.7 points but conceding 75.0 and positioned 263rd. San Francisco has won all three of its home games, 3-0, with a 72.7 points per game average and 63.3 allowed, and has won four of its last five, including a 79-70 win over North Dakota St and a 76-62 victory over Radford. Portland State has gone 0-2 on the road, averaging 65.5 points and conceding 83.0, and has won two of its last five, including a 111-59 home win over Lewis & Clark College. The teams have met once, with San Francisco winning 80-70 in 2025. Pythia projects a 77-69 win for San Francisco, a 146 total, and a 38% chance the home team covers the -11 line; the over on 143.5 has a 55% probability, and there is a 4% chance of overtime. The Gators' recent 79-70 win over North Dakota St shows they can keep the margin wide.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
San Francisco winLost
75.0%fair 1.33
Best odds1.22
Implied80.4%
Edge-5.4pp
Portland State winWon
25.0%fair 4.00
Best odds5.75
Implied19.6%
Edge+5.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 07:03 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (San Francisco) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 138.5Actual: Over 138.5
Over 138.5
67.1%
@ 1.47+3.6pp
Under 138.5
32.9%
@ 2.62-3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 143.5 · main lineActual: Over 143.5
Over 143.5
55.4%
@ 1.93+6.0pp
Under 143.5
44.6%
@ 1.92-6.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.89
WilliamHill
1.85
SBO
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.92
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 148.5Actual: Over 148.5
Over 148.5
43.3%
@ 2.55+6.2pp
Under 148.5
56.7%
@ 1.47-6.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
San Francisco total 73Actual: San Francisco under 73
Over 73
65.3%
Under 73
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Francisco total 77 · main lineActual: San Francisco under 77
Over 77
49.2%
@ 1.85-0.8pp
Under 77
50.8%
@ 1.85+0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
San Francisco total 81Actual: San Francisco under 81
Over 81
33.1%
Under 81
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portland State total 62Actual: Portland State over 62
Over 62
76.3%
Under 62
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portland State total 66 · main lineActual: Portland State over 66
Over 66
62.1%
@ 1.85+11.8pp
Under 66
37.9%
@ 1.87-11.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Portland State total 70Actual: Portland State over 70
Over 70
46.0%
Under 70
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread San Francisco -12.5Actual: Portland State +12.5
SAN -12.5
33.1%
@ 2.32-8.1pp
PORT +12.5
66.9%
@ 1.65+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Pinnacle
2.32
Bet365
2.12
Betano
2.10
PORT
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.64
Pinnacle
1.63
Spread San Francisco -9.5 · main lineActual: Portland State +9.5
SAN -9.5
43.4%
@ 1.96-5.6pp
PORT +9.5
56.6%
@ 2.05+5.6pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
PORT
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.84
Spread San Francisco -6.5Actual: Portland State +6.5
SAN -6.5
54.6%
@ 1.45-9.6pp
PORT +6.5
45.4%
@ 2.62+9.6pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
PORT
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.55
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
San FranciscoPortland State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
San FranciscoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oregon State
#195
L
28-50
28
50
-22
H13/02
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#301
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A15/02
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
L
29-41
29
41
-12
H19/02
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
38-44
38
44
-6
H22/02
NCAA
Pacific
#165
W
42-35
42
35
+7
A28/02
NCAA
Portland
#253
D
29-29
29
29
+0
H08/03
NCAA
Oregon State
#195
W
32-30
32
30
+2
A09/03
NCAA
Radford
#310
W
37-30
37
30
+7
H03/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#264
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H07/11
NCAA
Montana
#195
L
26-28
26
28
-2
H11/11
NCAA
70.1Avg total
34.2Scored
35.9Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 67.5
Last 30 (30)
33.4
33.6
67.0
-0.1
50%
47%
Last 30 at home (16)
34.3
34.9
69.2
-0.6
50%
56%
Last 30 away (14)
32.4
32.1
64.5
+0.4
50%
36%
Last 10 (10)
34.2
35.9
70.1
-1.7
40%
60%
Last 5 (5)
33.8
29.6
63.4
+4.2
60%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)
29.5
37.0
66.5
-7.5
0%
50%
vs Similar (8)
36.8
35.2
72.0
+1.5
62%
62%
vs Weaker (14)
33.8
30.6
64.4
+3.1
71%
36%
This opponent (Portland State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (San Francisco) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: San Francisco win
SAN win
no forecast
@ 1.38
PORT win
no forecast
@ 3.05
2nd half Spread San Francisco -4.5 · main lineActual: Portland State +4.5
SAN -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
PORT +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half Over/Under 74.5 · main lineActual: Over 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Portland State (regulation)
SAN
no forecast
@ 1.42
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.50
PORT
no forecast
@ 3.10
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Portland State +13.5
70.0%
1.55
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Portland State +15.5
75.8%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Portland State +14.5
73.0%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Portland State +14
72.2%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Portland State +19
84.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Portland State +15
75.1%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Portland State over 62.5
73.9%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Portland State +16.5
78.4%
1.34
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Portland State +17.5
80.9%
1.29
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Portland State +18.5
83.1%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Portland State +19.5
85.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Portland State +16
77.9%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Portland State over 63.5
70.6%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Portland State +17
80.4%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Portland State +21.5
88.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Portland State +18
82.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Portland State over 61.5
77.0%
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Portland State over 57.5
87.2%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Portland State over 59.5
82.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Portland State over 56.5
89.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
San Francisco under 94.5
96.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Portland State over 53.5
93.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.8%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.03
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Portland State over 55.5
90.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
San Francisco under 96.5
97.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
San Francisco under 92.5
94.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Over 137
70.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Over 136.5
71.4%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
San Francisco under 90.5
91.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Over 136
72.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
San Francisco under 82.5
71.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
San Francisco under 86.5
83.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
San Francisco under 87.5
85.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
San Francisco under 88.5
87.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
San Francisco under 84.5
77.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
San Francisco over 71.5
70.1%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Lost
Over 135.5
73.5%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Over 123.5
91.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Over 133.5
77.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
San Francisco +8.5
91.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Lost
Over 128.5
85.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Won
San Francisco over 68.5
79.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Lost
San Francisco over 67.5
82.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Under 168.5
91.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
San Francisco over 70.5
73.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Lost
San Francisco (regulation)
72.6%
1.21
Marathon Bet
1.24
Betano
1.18
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Lost
Portland State under 81.5
88.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Lost
Under 163.5
85.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
San Francisco +3.5
82.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Lost
Portland State under 79.5
84.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Lost
San Francisco win
75.0%
1.17
Marathon Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
SBO
1.18
Betano
1.17
-5.4pp
Lost
Under 158.5
78.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.4pp
Won
San Francisco -1.5
72.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-6.9pp
Lost
Portland State under 77.5
79.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Lost
Portland State under 76.5
76.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Lost
Portland State under 75.5
73.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-8.9pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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