SMU Mustangs face Ball State in the NCAA on 13 November 2026, with the Mustangs the clear favourite as the Pythia model rates them at 92% to win, a reflection of their undefeated 3-0 record, 92.7 points scored per game and 68.3 allowed, placing them 43rd in the league. Ball State, 1-2 with 70.0 points per game and 66.7 allowed, sits 267th. The Mustangs have won all three of their games, all at home, and have won three of their last five, including a 98-63 victory over Prairie View A&M, a 95-70 win over VMI and an 85-72 win over Southern Univ. Ball State's last five include two wins, one over Brescia and one at home, but they also lost to Indiana State and Georgia Southern. In head-to-head history the Mustangs have met Ball State once, with the last meeting noted but no score given. Pythia projects a 82-65 score, 147 total points, and a 29% chance the Mustangs will cover the -22.5 spread; the over on 151.5 points has a 39% probability, and there is a 2% chance of overtime. The Mustangs' recent dominance suggests they will likely finish the game comfortably.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SMU Mustangs winWon
91.9%fair 1.09
Best odds1.02
Implied93.6%
Edge-1.7pp
Ball State winLost
8.1%fair 12.37
Best odds26.00
Implied6.4%
Edge+1.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
California
#79
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A26/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A28/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
31-38
31
38
-7
H05/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A07/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H10/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
D
26-26
26
26
+0
A11/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H19/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#406
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H03/11
NCAA
VMI
#177
W
47-28
47
28
+19
H06/11
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#266
W
52-36
52
36
+16
H11/11
NCAA
72.0Avg total
35.6Scored
36.4Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 73
Last 30 (30)
39.4
37.5
76.9
+2.0
57%
70%
Last 30 at home (17)
42.6
36.5
79.1
+6.1
76%
82%
Last 30 away (13)
35.3
38.7
74.0
-3.4
31%
54%
Last 10 (10)
35.6
36.4
72.0
-0.8
40%
50%
Last 5 (5)
39.8
34.2
74.0
+5.6
60%
80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)
37.6
41.3
78.9
-3.7
29%
71%
vs Similar (12)
37.6
38.1
75.7
-0.5
42%
58%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)
42.6
34.4
77.0
+8.3
91%
82%
This opponent (Ball State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Ball State +22
70.5%
2.02
Pinnacle
2.18
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.94
SBO
1.93
-
+26.6pp
Lost
SMU Mustangs under 89.5
78.9%
1.75
Betano
1.75
-
-
-
-
+25.8pp
Lost
SMU Mustangs under 88
75.0%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+25.3pp
Lost
Ball State +22.5
71.4%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
+25.2pp
Lost
SMU Mustangs under 88.5
75.9%
1.84
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
+25.2pp
Lost
SMU Mustangs under 90.5
81.7%
1.60
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
-
+24.9pp
Won
Ball State +23
73.6%
1.92
Pinnacle
1.98
Bet365
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.88
SBO
1.88
-
+24.8pp
Lost
SMU Mustangs under 87.5
72.6%
1.91
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
1.97
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+24.8pp
Lost
SMU Mustangs under 91.5
84.2%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+24.0pp
Won
Ball State +23.5
74.3%
1.86
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
+23.1pp
Lost
SMU Mustangs under 92.5
86.5%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Won
Ball State +24
76.4%
1.77
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.76
SBO
1.75
-
+22.9pp
Lost
SMU Mustangs under 87
71.6%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Lost
SMU Mustangs under 93.5
88.6%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+21.9pp
Won
Ball State +25
79.0%
1.67
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.67
-
-
-
+21.7pp
Push
Ball State +24.5
77.0%
1.74
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.74
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.71
-
+21.5pp
Lost
Under 155.5
70.3%
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.60
-
-
+13.8pp
Won
Under 156.5
72.4%
1.57
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Under 157.5
74.4%
1.51
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Under 156
71.8%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
Under 158.5
76.3%
1.44
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
Under 159.5
78.2%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Under 158
75.9%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Under 157
73.9%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Under 160.5
79.9%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Under 159
77.8%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Under 160
79.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Under 162.5
83.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Under 167.5
89.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Under 172.5
94.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Under 177.5
96.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Ball State over 59.5
71.9%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Ball State over 51.5
91.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Ball State over 57.5
78.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Ball State over 58.5
75.2%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
SMU Mustangs (regulation)
90.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Ball State over 55.5
83.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Ball State over 53.5
88.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Ball State over 52.5
90.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Ball State over 54.5
86.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Ball State over 56.5
81.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
SMU Mustangs win
91.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 69.5
88.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Over 127.5
88.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 70.5
86.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 71.5
84.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Won
SMU Mustangs -3.5
87.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 72.5
82.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
Over 132.5
81.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 73.5
79.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-8.6pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 74.5
76.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-11.6pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 75.5
73.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-11.9pp
Won
Over 137.5
71.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-13.6pp
Won
SMU Mustangs -8.5
75.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-13.7pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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