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SMU Mustangs vs North Carolina Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 03 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 19:15
Final 97-83
39-39 58-44
Position#129
Record11-2
FormLWLWW
Points / game91.1
Allowed / game76.5
SMU Mustangs 🏆
USA
vs
North Carolina
USA
Position#45
Record13-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game81.2
Allowed / game63.7
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

SMU Mustangs winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
North Carolina winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Butler
#208
W
87-85
87
85
+2
H15/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
106-60
106
60
+46
H19/11
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
W
100-69
100
69
+31
H22/11
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
89-72
89
72
+17
H25/11
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#257
W
87-81 OT
87
81
+6
A29/11
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
69-88
69
88
-19
A04/12
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
W
93-80 OT
93
80
+13
H07/12
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
77-89
77
89
-12
A14/12
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
99-82
99
82
+17
H21/12
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
W
110-63
110
63
+47
H28/12
NCAA
1H
2H
38-43
49-42
45-26
61-34
50-30
50-39
46-38
43-34
39-43
35-31
38-48
31-40
41-27
36-50
44-47
33-42
51-47
48-35
51-19
59-44
168.6Avg total
91.7Scored
76.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)91.176.5167.5+14.685%
Season at home (10)95.173.6168.7+21.5100%
Season away (3)77.786.0163.7-8.333%
Last 10 (10)91.776.9168.6+14.880%
Last 5 (5)89.680.4170.0+9.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)69.088.0157.0-19.00%
vs Similar ◀ (12)82.676.9159.5+5.758%
vs Weaker (16)82.670.4153.1+12.281%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Navy
#24
W
73-61
73
61
+12
H19/11
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
W
85-70
85
70
+15
H25/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
58-74
58
74
-16
A27/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
67-64
67
64
+3
A03/12
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
81-61
81
61
+20
H07/12
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
80-62
80
62
+18
H13/12
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
77-58
77
58
+19
H17/12
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
71-70
71
70
+1
A20/12
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
99-51
99
51
+48
H23/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
79-66
79
66
+13
H31/12
NCAA
1H
2H
38-31
35-30
35-33
50-37
28-33
30-41
31-31
36-33
44-39
37-22
37-28
43-34
38-30
39-28
34-31
37-39
49-26
50-25
40-34
39-32
140.7Avg total
77.0Scored
63.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)81.263.7144.9+17.593%
Season at home (11)85.562.2147.7+23.4100%
Season away (3)65.369.3134.7-4.067%
Last 10 (10)77.063.7140.7+13.390%
Last 5 (5)81.261.4142.6+19.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)68.882.0150.8-13.20%
vs Similar ◀ (13)75.066.6141.6+8.477%
vs Weaker (13)87.865.9153.8+21.9100%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +7.5+7.51st half: +5.8+5.82nd half2nd half: +5.4+5.42nd half: +7.5+7.5
-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +7.5+7.51st half: +5.8+5.82nd half2nd half: +5.4+5.42nd half: +7.5+7.5
SMU MustangsNorth Carolina
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Butler
#208
L
38-43
38
43
-5
H15/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
45-26
45
26
+19
H19/11
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
W
50-30
50
30
+20
H22/11
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H25/11
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#257
L
39-43
39
43
-4
A29/11
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
38-48
38
48
-10
A04/12
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
W
41-27
41
27
+14
H07/12
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
44-47
44
47
-3
A14/12
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H21/12
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
W
51-19
51
19
+32
H28/12
NCAA
81.1Avg total
44.3Scored
36.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.734.774.4+5.163%-
Last 30 at home (20)40.634.074.7+6.680%-
Last 30 away (10)38.035.973.9+2.130%-
Last 10 (10)44.336.881.1+7.560%-
Last 5 (5)45.037.682.6+7.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)38.048.086.0-10.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)40.236.776.9+3.667%-
vs Weaker (16)39.932.572.4+7.462%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Navy
#24
W
38-31
38
31
+7
H19/11
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H25/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
28-33
28
33
-5
A27/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
D
31-31
31
31
+0
A03/12
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
44-39
44
39
+5
H07/12
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
37-28
37
28
+9
H13/12
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H17/12
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A20/12
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
49-26
49
26
+23
H23/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H31/12
NCAA
69.0Avg total
37.4Scored
31.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.133.872.8+5.373%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.831.273.0+10.588%-
Last 30 away (13)35.537.172.6-1.554%-
Last 10 (10)37.431.669.0+5.880%-
Last 5 (5)39.629.869.4+9.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)31.046.077.0-15.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)36.832.269.0+4.569%-
vs Weaker (13)43.831.575.4+12.3100%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
SMU Mustangs wins
1
North Carolina wins
DateGameScore
08/01/25North Carolina v SMU Mustangs82-67
SMU Mustangslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/12/25HCS Fullerton110-63
21/12/25HCentral Arkansas99-82
14/12/25ALSU77-89
07/12/25HTexas A&M93-80 OT
04/12/25AVanderbilt69-88
29/11/25AMississippi St.87-81 OT
25/11/25HRadford89-72
22/11/25HArkansas State100-69
19/11/25HArkansas-Pine Bluff106-60
15/11/25HButler87-85
North Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/12/25HFlorida State79-66
23/12/25HEast Carolina99-51
20/12/25AOhio State71-70
17/12/25HEast Tennessee St77-58
13/12/25HUSC Upstate80-62
07/12/25HGeorgetown81-61
03/12/25AKentucky67-64
27/11/25AMichigan State58-74
25/11/25HSt. Bonaventure85-70
19/11/25HNavy73-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW85%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games13103
Win %85%100%33%
Points / game91.195.177.7
Allowed / game76.573.686.0
Point differential+14.6+21.5-8.3
Avg total167.5168.7163.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+69%90%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %15%10%33%
North Carolina
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW93%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games14113
Win %93%100%67%
Points / game81.285.565.3
Allowed / game63.762.269.3
Point differential+17.5+23.4-4.0
Avg total144.9147.7134.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+79%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 North Carolina1413193%81.263.7+17.5
2 Duke1312192%87.063.8+23.2
3 California1513287%81.568.5+12.9
4 Miami (FL)1412286%88.567.8+20.7
5 SMU Mustangs1311285%91.176.5+14.6
6 Virginia1512380%84.170.7+13.4
7 Clemson1512380%78.265.7+12.5
8 Virginia Tech1512380%83.574.0+9.5
9 Stanford1512380%78.970.9+8.1
10 Louisville1411379%90.469.1+21.2
11 NC State1510567%85.371.4+13.9
12 Wake Forest1510567%81.974.3+7.7
13 Notre Dame1510567%74.366.7+7.6
14 Georgia Tech1510567%75.970.1+5.8
15 Syracuse149564%73.664.8+8.9
16 Florida State147750%83.678.4+5.3
17 Boston College147750%69.466.6+2.8
18 Pittsburgh157847%73.368.7+4.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
SMU Mustangs395897
North Carolina394483
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