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South Florida vs UMBC Retrievers Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 21 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 94-69
45-29 49-40
Position#40
Record6-5
FormWLWWL
Points / game89.0
Allowed / game81.8
vs
Position#43
Record6-5
FormWLWLL
Points / game74.1
Allowed / game70.8
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

South Florida winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
UMBC Retrievers winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

South FloridaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
George Washington
#160
L
95-99
95
99
-4
A08/11
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
W
100-50
100
50
+50
H13/11
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
W
108-89
108
89
+19
A16/11
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
L
95-103
95
103
-8
A20/11
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
66-78
66
78
-12
H26/11
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
W
97-91 OT
97
91
+6
H27/11
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
68-83
68
83
-15
H28/11
NCAA
Utah State
#20
W
74-61
74
61
+13
H05/12
NCAA
Charleston
#80
W
81-75
81
75
+6
H11/12
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
93-104
93
104
-11
A18/12
NCAA
1H
2H
40-44
55-55
49-23
51-27
56-41
52-48
45-44
50-59
33-36
33-42
40-50
44-34
29-33
39-50
41-20
33-41
46-43
35-32
39-46
54-58
171.0Avg total
87.7Scored
83.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)89.081.8170.8+7.255%
Season at home (7)84.072.1156.1+11.971%
Season away (4)97.898.8196.5-1.025%
Last 10 (10)87.783.3171.0+4.450%
Last 5 (5)82.682.8165.4-0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)70.279.7149.8-9.50%
vs Similar ◀ (17)74.475.5149.9-1.241%
vs Weaker (7)93.079.7172.7+13.371%
This opponent (UMBC Retrievers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UMBC RetrieversUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dayton
#65
L
71-77
71
77
-6
A08/11
NCAA
Morgan State
#244
W
81-79
81
79
+2
A11/11
NCAA
Wagner
#249
W
71-70 OT
71
70
+1
H16/11
NCAA
George Washington
#160
L
52-89
52
89
-37
A20/11
NCAA
Notre Dame MD
#558
W
102-52
102
52
+50
H24/11
NCAA
Delaware State
#353
W
71-57
71
57
+14
H29/11
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
L
81-90
81
90
-9
A04/12
NCAA
Bucknell
#339
W
73-66
73
66
+7
A06/12
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
L
79-83
79
83
-4
H09/12
NCAA
Army
#318
L
60-63
60
63
-3
H12/12
NCAA
1H
2H
37-41
34-36
45-34
36-45
28-32
32-28
17-47
35-42
48-29
54-23
34-22
37-35
37-45
44-45
25-26
48-40
43-39
36-44
30-36
30-27
146.7Avg total
74.1Scored
72.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)74.170.8144.9+3.355%
Season at home (6)76.263.0139.2+13.267%
Season away (5)71.680.2151.8-8.640%
Last 10 (10)74.172.6146.7+1.550%
Last 5 (5)72.871.8144.6+1.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)77.087.8164.8-10.80%
vs Similar ◀ (11)73.780.8154.5-7.136%
vs Weaker (13)78.873.1151.9+5.854%
This opponent (South Florida) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: +3.8+3.81st half: -0.7-0.72nd half2nd half: +0.0+0.02nd half: +2.1+2.1
-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: +3.8+3.81st half: -0.7-0.72nd half2nd half: +0.0+0.02nd half: +2.1+2.1
South FloridaUMBC Retrievers
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
South FloridaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
George Washington
#160
L
40-44
40
44
-4
A08/11
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
W
49-23
49
23
+26
H13/11
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
W
56-41
56
41
+15
A16/11
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
W
45-44
45
44
+1
A20/11
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H26/11
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
L
40-50
40
50
-10
H27/11
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
29-33
29
33
-4
H28/11
NCAA
Utah State
#20
W
41-20
41
20
+21
H05/12
NCAA
Charleston
#80
W
46-43
46
43
+3
H11/12
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A18/12
NCAA
79.8Avg total
41.8Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.236.973.1-0.740%-
Last 30 at home (16)34.634.969.6-0.344%-
Last 30 away (14)38.039.277.2-1.236%-
Last 10 (10)41.838.079.8+3.850%-
Last 5 (5)39.038.477.4+0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)31.540.872.3-9.317%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)34.435.169.5-0.635%-
vs Weaker (7)44.638.182.7+6.471%-
This opponent (UMBC Retrievers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UMBC RetrieversLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dayton
#65
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A08/11
NCAA
Morgan State
#244
W
45-34
45
34
+11
A11/11
NCAA
Wagner
#249
L
28-32
28
32
-4
H16/11
NCAA
George Washington
#160
L
17-47
17
47
-30
A20/11
NCAA
Notre Dame MD
#558
W
48-29
48
29
+19
H24/11
NCAA
Delaware State
#353
W
34-22
34
22
+12
H29/11
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
L
37-45
37
45
-8
A04/12
NCAA
Bucknell
#339
L
25-26
25
26
-1
A06/12
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H09/12
NCAA
Army
#318
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H12/12
NCAA
69.5Avg total
34.4Scored
35.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.938.274.1-2.333%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.837.173.9-0.443%-
Last 30 away (16)35.139.174.2-3.925%-
Last 10 (10)34.435.169.5-0.740%-
Last 5 (5)33.833.667.4+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)38.045.683.6-7.60%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)32.938.571.5-5.627%-
vs Weaker (13)37.436.073.4+1.446%-
This opponent (South Florida) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
South Florida wins
0
UMBC Retrievers wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/12/25AAlabama93-104
11/12/25HCharleston81-75
05/12/25HUtah State74-61
28/11/25HColorado State68-83
27/11/25HWestern Kentucky97-91 OT
26/11/25HVCU Rams66-78
20/11/25AOklahoma State95-103
16/11/25AKennesaw State108-89
13/11/25HCoppin State100-50
08/11/25AGeorge Washington95-99
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/12/25HArmy60-63
09/12/25HBuffalo79-83
06/12/25ABucknell73-66
04/12/25AGeorgetown81-90
29/11/25HDelaware State71-57
24/11/25HNotre Dame MD102-52
20/11/25AGeorge Washington52-89
16/11/25HWagner71-70 OT
11/11/25AMorgan State81-79
08/11/25ADayton71-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

South Florida
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL55%
HomeLWLWW71%
AwayLWLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1174
Win %55%71%25%
Points / game89.084.097.8
Allowed / game81.872.198.8
Point differential+7.2+11.9-1.0
Avg total170.8156.1196.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%43%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %9%14%0%
UMBC Retrievers
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL55%
HomeWWWLL67%
AwayLWLLW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %55%67%40%
Points / game74.176.271.6
Allowed / game70.863.080.2
Point differential+3.3+13.2-8.6
Avg total144.9139.2151.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)33% (3)100% (1)
Overtime %9%17%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

American Conference conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tulsa1211192%89.370.7+18.7
2 Tulane139469%73.475.2-1.8
3 UAB128467%84.272.3+11.8
4 Florida Atlantic128467%83.272.7+10.5
5 North Texas128467%68.364.2+4.1
6 Wichita State127558%77.167.2+9.8
7 Temple127558%78.872.2+6.6
8 South Florida116555%89.081.8+7.2
9 Rice136746%76.272.2+3.9
10 Charlotte136746%72.171.8+0.2
11 East Carolina125742%68.474.3-5.9
12 Memphis114736%74.376.4-2.1
13 UTSA Roadrunners114736%71.575.0-3.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
America East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Vermont148657%78.174.2+3.9
2 UMBC Retrievers116555%74.170.8+3.3
3 UMass Lowell145936%78.079.8-1.8
4 NJIT124833%63.177.5-14.4
5 Bryant University123925%63.671.4-7.8
6 Binghamton1331023%65.076.5-11.5
7 Maine Black Bears141137%58.470.6-12.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
South Florida454994
UMBC Retrievers294069
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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