PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Southern Miss hosts UT Arlington on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model rates Southern Miss the clear favourite at 83% versus 17% for the Mavericks, a reflection of Southern Miss's 2-1 record, 74.3 points scored and 66.0 allowed per game, and a league position of 171, compared with UT Arlington's 3-1 record, 89.0 points scored and 69.2 allowed per game and a league position of 105. Southern Miss has gone 2-0 at home, averaging 83.0 points and conceding 57.5, and has won three of its last five games, including a 84-80 win over Jackson State at home and a 82-35 victory over Tougaloo, while losing to Iowa State away; UT Arlington has a 2-1 road record, averaging 89.0 points and 73.7 allowed, and has also won three of its last five, with a 116-65 win over Bethesda, a 89-85 win over Portland and a 62-71 loss to Hawaii. The projected score is 78-67 for Southern Miss, with a total of 145.1 points, and the model gives an 83% chance that Southern Miss will cover the home line, with a 3% probability of overtime. The last meeting between the teams ended with Southern Miss defeating UT Arlington 84-80 at home on 11 November 2026.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 72.0 | 70.8 | 142.8 | +1.2 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 83.0 | 57.5 | 140.5 | +25.5 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 61.0 | 84.0 | 145.0 | -23.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.3 | 73.5 | 149.8 | +2.8 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 71.6 | 72.2 | 143.8 | -0.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (10) | 71.1 | 79.2 | 150.3 | -8.1 | 30% |
| vs Similar (13) | 73.8 | 74.8 | 148.7 | -1.0 | 54% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 73.2 | 67.2 | 140.3 | +6.0 | 83% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 88.2 | 70.8 | 159.0 | +17.4 | 80% |
| Season at home (2) | 87.0 | 66.5 | 153.5 | +20.5 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 89.0 | 73.7 | 162.7 | +15.3 | 67% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.0 | 66.9 | 142.9 | +9.1 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 88.2 | 70.8 | 159.0 | +17.4 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 63.8 | 72.2 | 136.0 | -8.4 | 20% |
| vs Similar (13) | 64.7 | 66.8 | 131.5 | -2.1 | 46% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (11) | 79.6 | 69.0 | 148.6 | +10.6 | 82% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.0 | 33.5 | 66.5 | -0.6 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 32.1 | 30.2 | 62.3 | +1.9 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 33.8 | 36.4 | 70.2 | -2.7 | 50% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.6 | 35.9 | 72.5 | +0.7 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.2 | 36.6 | 70.8 | -2.4 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (10) | 32.7 | 37.8 | 70.5 | -5.1 | 20% | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 32.3 | 33.5 | 65.8 | -1.2 | 54% | - |
| vs Weaker (6) | 32.8 | 30.0 | 62.8 | +2.8 | 83% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 31.9 | 31.2 | 63.0 | +0.7 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 32.8 | 27.8 | 60.7 | +5.0 | 62% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 31.1 | 33.7 | 64.8 | -2.6 | 41% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.6 | 30.6 | 66.2 | +5.0 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 43.4 | 29.6 | 73.0 | +13.8 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 29.2 | 36.2 | 65.4 | -7.0 | 20% | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 27.4 | 30.6 | 58.0 | -3.2 | 38% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (11) | 37.5 | 30.4 | 67.8 | +7.1 | 73% | - |
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| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Texas State | 65-85 |
| 12/11/26 | H | Jackson State | 84-80 OT |
| 07/11/26 | A | Iowa State | 57-83 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Tougaloo | 82-35 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Troy | 70-78 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Appalachian State | 86-73 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Texas State | 81-77 |
| 05/03/26 | H | James Madison | 86-80 |
| 28/02/26 | A | South Alabama | 68-55 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Arkansas State | 84-89 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/26 | H | UTRGV | 85-77 |
| 10/11/26 | A | Bethesda | 116-65 |
| 09/11/26 | A | Hawaii | 62-71 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Portland | 89-85 |
| 03/11/26 | H | North Texas-Dallas | 89-56 |
| 14/03/26 | A | Utah Valley State | 65-67 |
| 13/03/26 | H | Southern Utah | 69-63 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Abilene Christian | 64-57 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Tarleton | 65-60 |
| 27/02/26 | A | California Baptist | 56-68 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWL | 50% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 72.0 | 83.0 | 61.0 |
| Allowed / game | 70.8 | 57.5 | 84.0 |
| Point differential | +1.2 | +25.5 | -23.0 |
| Avg total | 142.8 | 140.5 | 145.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLWW | 80% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | WLW | 67% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Win % | 80% | 100% | 67% |
| Points / game | 88.2 | 87.0 | 89.0 |
| Allowed / game | 70.8 | 66.5 | 73.7 |
| Point differential | +17.4 | +20.5 | +15.3 |
| Avg total | 159.0 | 153.5 | 162.7 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 40% | 50% | 33% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.8 | 62.8 | +27.0 |
| 2 |  Old Dominion | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 77.0 | 58.4 | +18.6 |
| 3 |  Appalachian State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.0 | 60.2 | +8.8 |
| 4 | Southern Miss | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 72.0 | 70.8 | +1.2 |
| 5 |  Arkansas State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 80.2 | 79.5 | +0.8 |
| 6 |  Coastal Carolina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 72.5 | 73.5 | -1.0 |
| 7 |  South Alabama | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 74.6 | 76.0 | -1.4 |
| 8 |  Louisiana Lafayette | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 59.0 | 60.3 | -1.3 |
| 9 |  James Madison | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 78.7 | -2.7 |
| 10 |  Georgia State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 85.8 | 77.2 | +8.5 |
| 11 |  Marshall | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 78.2 | 76.0 | +2.2 |
| 12 |  Georgia Southern | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 77.8 | 82.8 | -5.0 |
| 13 |  Troy | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.0 | 78.0 | -12.0 |
| 14 |  Louisiana Monroe | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 75.0 | 87.7 | -12.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Utah Valley State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.0 | 75.7 | +10.3 |
| 2 | UT Arlington | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 88.2 | 70.8 | +17.4 |
| 3 |  Tarleton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.2 | 70.5 | +10.8 |
| 4 |  Southern Utah | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 96.8 | 69.6 | +27.2 |
| 5 |  Abilene Christian | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 71.0 | 83.7 | -12.7 |
| 6 |  Utah Tech | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 80.5 | 87.2 | -6.8 |
| 7 |  California Baptist | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.8 | 77.0 | -10.2 |
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