PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
St. Bonaventure will host Buffalo on 19 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Purple Knights as the clear favourite, giving them a 93% chance of victory largely because of their 3-1 record, 82.0 points per game and 62.5 allowed per game, while Buffalo sits at 1-2, 77.7 points scored and 79.0 allowed. St. Bonaventure has won three of its four games this season, including a 88-49 win over Canisius on the road, and has a 2-1 home record with 80.0 points per game and 67.0 allowed; their last five games were 3-2. Buffalo has struggled, losing two of its two road contests, averaging 63.0 points and conceding 86.0, and their last five games were 1-4. In the six meetings between the teams, St. Bonaventure has won four, most recently defeating Buffalo 77-69 on 6 December 2025. Pythia projects a 85-68 score, 152.5 total points, a 93% probability that St. Bonaventure will win and a 7% chance for Buffalo, with a 2% overtime probability. The home team's line is 85-68, and the model assigns a 93% chance that St. Bonaventure will cover the spread. The final game will be decided by the Purple Knights' offensive firepower.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 82.0 | 62.5 | 144.5 | +19.5 | 75% |
| Season at home (3) | 80.0 | 67.0 | 147.0 | +13.0 | 67% |
| Season away (1) | 88.0 | 49.0 | 137.0 | +39.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 75.6 | 68.5 | 144.1 | +7.1 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 78.2 | 63.6 | 141.8 | +14.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 75.3 | 92.3 | 167.7 | -17.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (19) | 75.3 | 75.6 | 150.9 | -0.3 | 37% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (7) | 83.6 | 68.3 | 151.9 | +15.3 | 71% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 77.7 | 79.0 | 156.7 | -1.3 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 107.0 | 65.0 | 172.0 | +42.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 63.0 | 86.0 | 149.0 | -23.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.4 | 80.3 | 156.7 | -3.9 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.2 | 81.6 | 157.8 | -5.4 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (8) | 78.0 | 83.6 | 161.6 | -5.6 | 25% |
| vs Similar (11) | 75.1 | 81.5 | 156.5 | -6.4 | 27% |
| vs Weaker (9) | 74.8 | 68.8 | 143.6 | +6.0 | 67% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (29) | 35.7 | 36.3 | 72.0 | -0.6 | 34% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 36.2 | 37.4 | 73.6 | -1.1 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 35.2 | 35.3 | 70.5 | -0.1 | 27% | - |
| Last 10 (9) | 35.7 | 31.7 | 67.3 | +4.0 | 44% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.6 | 28.2 | 63.8 | +7.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 35.3 | 46.7 | 82.0 | -11.3 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 33.7 | 37.1 | 70.8 | -3.4 | 26% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 40.3 | 31.7 | 72.0 | +8.7 | 67% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.7 | 35.7 | 72.4 | +1.0 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 36.1 | 35.6 | 71.7 | +0.5 | 38% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 37.2 | 35.7 | 72.9 | +1.5 | 59% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.7 | 35.0 | 70.7 | +0.7 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.8 | 37.4 | 75.2 | +0.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (8) | 37.1 | 39.4 | 76.5 | -2.2 | 38% | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 31.8 | 38.0 | 69.8 | -6.2 | 27% | - |
| vs Weaker (9) | 38.3 | 29.9 | 68.2 | +8.4 | 78% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 06/12/25 | Buffalo v St. Bonaventure | 69-77 |
| 07/12/24 | St. Bonaventure v Buffalo | 65-55 |
| 02/12/23 | Buffalo v St. Bonaventure | 65-80 |
| 03/12/22 | Buffalo v St. Bonaventure | 83-66 |
| 04/12/21 | St. Bonaventure v Buffalo | 68-65 |
| 31/12/19 | Buffalo v St. Bonaventure | 84-79 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Lafayette | 81-58 |
| 12/11/26 | H | Cornell | 88-64 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Canisius | 88-49 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Youngstown State | 71-79 |
| 13/03/26 | A | Dayton | 63-68 |
| 12/03/26 | A | George Mason | 63-57 |
| 11/03/26 | A | La Salle | 99-80 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Davidson | 63-68 |
| 05/03/26 | A | George Washington | 82-91 OT |
| 28/02/26 | A | George Mason | 58-71 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/26 | H | Penn State-Schuylkill | 107-65 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Pittsburgh | 61-80 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Marshall | 65-92 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Akron | 70-73 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Toledo | 78-98 |
| 03/03/26 | H | Eastern Michigan | 72-67 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Central Michigan | 70-75 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Akron | 85-99 |
| 21/02/26 | A | UMass | 86-82 OT |
| 17/02/26 | H | Northern Illinois | 70-72 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWWW | 75% |
| Home | LWW | 67% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Win % | 75% | 67% | 100% |
| Points / game | 82.0 | 80.0 | 88.0 |
| Allowed / game | 62.5 | 67.0 | 49.0 |
| Point differential | +19.5 | +13.0 | +39.0 |
| Avg total | 144.5 | 147.0 | 137.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 75% | 67% | 100% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLW | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 77.7 | 107.0 | 63.0 |
| Allowed / game | 79.0 | 65.0 | 86.0 |
| Point differential | -1.3 | +42.0 | -23.0 |
| Avg total | 156.7 | 172.0 | 149.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  St. Louis Billikens | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 102.3 | 71.3 | +31.0 |
| 2 |  George Washington | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 80.0 | 51.8 | +28.2 |
| 3 |  Rhode Island | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 81.2 | 59.2 | +22.0 |
| 4 |  Davidson | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 75.3 | 60.7 | +14.7 |
| 5 |  Saint Josephs Hawks | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 77.3 | 70.0 | +7.3 |
| 6 |  Duquesne | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 66.7 | +6.0 |
| 7 |  Richmond Spiders | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 89.0 | 64.0 | +25.0 |
| 8 | St. Bonaventure | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 82.0 | 62.5 | +19.5 |
| 9 |  George Mason | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 71.8 | 58.8 | +13.0 |
| 10 |  Loyola Chicago | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.8 | 67.5 | +12.2 |
| 11 |  Fordham | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 76.5 | 72.0 | +4.5 |
| 12 |  VCU Rams | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.7 | 70.0 | +15.7 |
| 13 |  Dayton | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 84.7 | 79.3 | +5.3 |
| 14 |  La Salle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67.3 | 84.7 | -17.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Akron | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 62.7 | +21.3 |
| 2 |  Central Michigan | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.8 | 65.8 | +18.0 |
| 3 |  Bowling Green | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 76.0 | +10.3 |
| 4 |  Miami (Ohio) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 76.0 | +8.0 |
| 5 |  Western Michigan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.0 | 60.8 | +18.2 |
| 6 |  Eastern Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 63.3 | +14.0 |
| 7 |  UMass | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 66.0 | 64.3 | +1.7 |
| 8 |  Ohio | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.0 | 75.7 | +0.3 |
| 9 |  Northern Illinois | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 79.4 | 73.2 | +6.2 |
| 10 |  Toledo | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 73.0 | 77.2 | -4.2 |
| 11 |  Kent State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.3 | 75.3 | +8.0 |
| 12 | Buffalo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 79.0 | -1.3 |
| 13 |  Ball State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 68.8 | 72.5 | -3.8 |
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