PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
St. Marys (CA) will host Illinois (Chi.) on 13 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup that the Pythia model deems a clear favourite for the home side, assigning a 90% win probability largely because St. Marys has a 2-1 record, 96.7 points per game and 81.7 allowed, while Illinois (Chi.) boasts a perfect 3-0 record, 85.7 points per game and 58.3 allowed; the model projects a score of 81-66 and a total of 146.5 points, giving St. Marys a 90% chance to win and a 10% chance to lose. St. Marys (CA) has gone 2-0 at home, averaging 97.5 points and conceding 74.5, and has won two of its last five games, with a recent loss to Nevada 95-96 away on 8 November 2026 and victories over North Dakota St 105-64 at home on 4 November 2026 and Illinois State 90-85 at home on 2 November 2026. Illinois (Chi.) has gone 3-0 overall, 4-1 in its last five, and has won all three of its recent home games, beating NC Greensboro 82-72 on 9 November 2026, Robert Morris 79-56 on 6 November 2026 and St. Francis (ILL) 96-47 on 2 November 2026. The model gives St. Marys a 90% probability to cover the spread and a 10% chance for Illinois to win, with a 2% overtime probability, and the game will likely end with St. Marys (CA) defeating Illinois (Chi.) 81-66.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 96.7 | 81.7 | 178.3 | +15.0 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 97.5 | 74.5 | 172.0 | +23.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 95.0 | 96.0 | 191.0 | -1.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 79.4 | 70.8 | 150.2 | +8.6 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.2 | 76.8 | 159.0 | +5.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 67.5 | 66.0 | 133.5 | +1.5 | 50% |
| vs Similar ◀ (4) | 70.5 | 75.2 | 145.8 | -4.8 | 25% |
| vs Weaker (24) | 79.3 | 66.4 | 145.7 | +12.9 | 88% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 85.7 | 58.3 | 144.0 | +27.3 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 85.7 | 58.3 | 144.0 | +27.3 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 79.7 | 67.1 | 146.8 | +12.6 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.6 | 62.0 | 141.6 | +17.6 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 66.0 | 80.0 | 146.0 | -14.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (14) | 74.5 | 71.1 | 145.6 | +3.4 | 57% |
| vs Weaker (14) | 75.1 | 65.4 | 140.6 | +9.7 | 64% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.0 | 32.3 | 68.3 | +3.7 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 37.9 | 31.2 | 69.1 | +6.6 | 75% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 33.9 | 33.4 | 67.3 | +0.4 | 57% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.8 | 34.5 | 69.3 | +0.3 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.8 | 35.2 | 70.0 | -0.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 33.5 | 35.0 | 68.5 | -1.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (4) | 34.0 | 37.8 | 71.8 | -3.8 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (24) | 36.5 | 31.1 | 67.7 | +5.4 | 71% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.2 | 30.7 | 66.0 | +4.5 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 35.2 | 29.8 | 65.0 | +5.5 | 71% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 35.2 | 32.0 | 67.2 | +3.2 | 62% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.6 | 31.9 | 69.5 | +5.7 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.8 | 34.0 | 71.8 | +3.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 32.0 | 35.0 | 67.0 | -3.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (14) | 34.6 | 31.6 | 66.2 | +2.9 | 64% | - |
| vs Weaker (14) | 35.0 | 29.5 | 64.5 | +5.5 | 71% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | A | Nevada | 95-96 OT |
| 05/11/26 | H | North Dakota St | 105-64 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Illinois State | 90-85 OT |
| 19/03/26 | H | Texas A&M | 50-63 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Santa Clara | 71-76 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Gonzaga | 70-59 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Santa Clara | 86-67 |
| 22/02/26 | A | Washington State | 83-67 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Seattle | 72-70 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Pacific | 72-61 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | NC Greensboro | 82-72 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Robert Morris | 79-56 |
| 02/11/26 | H | St. Francis (ILL) | 96-47 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Northern Iowa | 69-84 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Drake | 72-51 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Murray State | 92-79 |
| 01/03/26 | A | Indiana State | 63-79 |
| 25/02/26 | H | Bradley | 93-86 OT |
| 21/02/26 | H | Valparaiso | 67-71 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Evansville | 84-46 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWL | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 96.7 | 97.5 | 95.0 |
| Allowed / game | 81.7 | 74.5 | 96.0 |
| Point differential | +15.0 | +23.0 | -1.0 |
| Avg total | 178.3 | 172.0 | 191.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 100% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 67% | 50% | 100% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 85.7 | 85.7 | - |
| Allowed / game | 58.3 | 58.3 | - |
| Point differential | +27.3 | +27.3 | - |
| Avg total | 144.0 | 144.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Oregon State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 93.2 | 69.5 | +23.8 |
| 2 |  Santa Clara | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.8 | 72.5 | +13.2 |
| 3 |  San Francisco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 63.3 | +9.3 |
| 4 |  San Diego Toreros | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.2 | 75.5 | +8.8 |
| 5 |  Pacific | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.7 | 53.7 | +21.0 |
| 6 | St. Marys (CA) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 96.7 | 81.7 | +15.0 |
| 7 |  Pepperdine | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 96.0 | 70.0 | +26.0 |
| 8 |  Gonzaga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 90.5 | 73.0 | +17.5 |
| 9 |  Portland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 86.8 | 93.5 | -6.8 |
| 10 |  Seattle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.3 | 73.3 | -3.0 |
| 11 |  Loyola Marymount | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 84.5 | 74.8 | +9.8 |
| 12 |  Washington State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 67.7 | 77.0 | -9.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Murray State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 67.5 | +27.5 |
| 2 | Illinois (Chi.) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 58.3 | +27.3 |
| 3 |  Drake | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 62.7 | +23.0 |
| 4 |  Southern Illinois | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 70.0 | +15.0 |
| 5 |  Belmont | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.0 | 62.3 | +11.7 |
| 6 |  Valparaiso | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 73.0 | +4.3 |
| 7 |  Evansville | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 75.3 | 73.0 | +2.3 |
| 8 |  Bradley | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 59.5 | 55.0 | +4.5 |
| 9 |  Northern Iowa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 87.5 | 87.5 | +0.0 |
| 10 |  Indiana State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.7 | 75.3 | -4.7 |
| 11 |  Illinois State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 81.2 | 75.8 | +5.5 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Marys (CA) | 42 | 42 | 84 |
| Illinois (Chi.) | 24 | 37 | 61 |
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