PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
St. Marys (CA) will host Portland State on 16 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names St. Marys (CA) the clear favourite with a 90% chance of victory, reflecting their 3-1 season record, 93.5 points per game and only 76.5 points allowed, while Portland State sits 2-2 with 81.5 points per game and 73.2 allowed. St. Marys (CA) are unbeaten at home, 3-0, averaging 93.0 points and conceding 70.0, and have won three of their last five games; they beat Illinois (Chi.) 84-61 at home on 13 November, lost to Nevada 95-96 away on 8 November, and beat North Dakota St 105-64 at home on 4 November. Portland State's road record is 1-2, with 71.7 points per game and 78.0 allowed, and they have won two of their last five; they beat San Francisco 84-68 away on 14 November, lost to Colorado State 71-87 away on 11 November, and lost to Seattle 60-79 away on 7 November. The Pythia model projects an 80-66 score, 146.3 total points, and a 2% chance of overtime, with St. Marys (CA) covering the spread. The final game-day result will confirm whether the projected margin holds.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 93.5 | 76.5 | 170.0 | +17.0 | 75% |
| Season at home (3) | 93.0 | 70.0 | 163.0 | +23.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 95.0 | 96.0 | 191.0 | -1.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 80.6 | 70.8 | 151.4 | +9.8 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 84.8 | 73.8 | 158.6 | +11.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 67.5 | 66.0 | 133.5 | +1.5 | 50% |
| vs Similar (5) | 73.2 | 72.4 | 145.6 | +0.8 | 40% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (23) | 79.7 | 66.5 | 146.2 | +13.2 | 87% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 81.5 | 73.2 | 154.8 | +8.2 | 50% |
| Season at home (1) | 111.0 | 59.0 | 170.0 | +52.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 71.7 | 78.0 | 149.7 | -6.3 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 75.9 | 73.1 | 149.0 | +2.8 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.6 | 73.6 | 153.2 | +6.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (12) | 72.4 | 72.6 | 145.0 | -0.2 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (16) | 73.4 | 69.2 | 142.6 | +4.1 | 69% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.3 | 32.0 | 68.3 | +4.3 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 38.1 | 30.8 | 68.9 | +7.3 | 76% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 33.9 | 33.6 | 67.5 | +0.3 | 54% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.2 | 33.9 | 70.1 | +2.3 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.2 | 33.6 | 69.8 | +2.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 33.5 | 35.0 | 68.5 | -1.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 35.6 | 35.0 | 70.6 | +0.6 | 60% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (23) | 36.7 | 31.1 | 67.8 | +5.6 | 70% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.3 | 30.8 | 64.1 | +2.5 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 35.4 | 29.3 | 64.7 | +6.1 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 31.4 | 32.1 | 63.6 | -0.7 | 31% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.7 | 33.2 | 67.9 | +1.5 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.2 | 33.2 | 68.4 | +2.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (12) | 31.0 | 32.8 | 63.8 | -1.8 | 33% | - |
| vs Weaker (16) | 32.9 | 30.1 | 62.9 | +2.8 | 44% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Illinois (Chi.) | 84-61 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Nevada | 95-96 OT |
| 05/11/26 | H | North Dakota St | 105-64 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Illinois State | 90-85 OT |
| 19/03/26 | H | Texas A&M | 50-63 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Santa Clara | 71-76 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Gonzaga | 70-59 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Santa Clara | 86-67 |
| 22/02/26 | A | Washington State | 83-67 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Seattle | 72-70 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/26 | A | San Francisco | 84-68 |
| 12/11/26 | A | Colorado State | 71-87 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Seattle | 60-79 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Lewis & Clark College | 111-59 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Montana | 72-75 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Idaho State | 85-78 |
| 03/03/26 | H | Weber State | 84-60 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Montana | 68-74 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Montana State | 69-84 |
| 21/02/26 | H | East. Washington | 55-67 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLW | 75% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Win % | 75% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 93.5 | 93.0 | 95.0 |
| Allowed / game | 76.5 | 70.0 | 96.0 |
| Point differential | +17.0 | +23.0 | -1.0 |
| Avg total | 170.0 | 163.0 | 191.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 67% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 100% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 50% | 33% | 100% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLW | 50% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LLW | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 33% |
| Points / game | 81.5 | 111.0 | 71.7 |
| Allowed / game | 73.2 | 59.0 | 78.0 |
| Point differential | +8.2 | +52.0 | -6.3 |
| Avg total | 154.8 | 170.0 | 149.7 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 100% | 33% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Oregon State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 93.2 | 69.5 | +23.8 |
| 2 |  Santa Clara | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 86.6 | 75.0 | +11.6 |
| 3 | St. Marys (CA) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 93.5 | 76.5 | +17.0 |
| 4 |  San Diego Toreros | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.2 | 75.5 | +8.8 |
| 5 |  San Francisco | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 71.5 | 68.5 | +3.0 |
| 6 |  Pacific | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.7 | 53.7 | +21.0 |
| 7 |  Pepperdine | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 96.0 | 70.0 | +26.0 |
| 8 |  Portland | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 87.0 | 93.6 | -6.6 |
| 9 |  Gonzaga | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 87.0 | 75.7 | +11.3 |
| 10 |  Seattle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.3 | 73.3 | -3.0 |
| 11 |  Loyola Marymount | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 84.5 | 74.8 | +9.8 |
| 12 |  Washington State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 81.5 | 79.5 | +2.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Idaho | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 86.5 | 71.5 | +15.0 |
| 2 |  Montana | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 78.0 | 65.2 | +12.8 |
| 3 |  Northern Colorado | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 82.0 | 69.2 | +12.8 |
| 4 | Portland State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.5 | 73.2 | +8.2 |
| 5 |  Sacramento State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 74.3 | 77.3 | -3.0 |
| 6 |  Montana State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 80.0 | -4.0 |
| 7 |  East. Washington | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 80.5 | 83.5 | -3.0 |
| 8 |  Weber State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 74.5 | 86.2 | -11.8 |
| 9 |  Northern Arizona | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 69.5 | 87.8 | -18.2 |
| 10 |  Idaho State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 67.3 | 92.0 | -24.7 |
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