PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
St. Thomas (Minn.) hosts Southeast Missouri State on 19 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the home squad as the clear favourite, assigning it an 87% chance of victory largely because of their 2-3 overall record, 82.4 points per game and 78.2 points allowed, while the visitors sit at 2-2, 79.8 points per game and 77.5 points allowed; the home team also has a 1-1 record at home with 93.0 points scored and 79.0 allowed, whereas the road side has gone 0-2 on the road, scoring 71.5 and conceding 83.0. St. Thomas has won its last five games 2-3, including a 119-82 home win over Macalester and a 77-79 away loss to Army, while Southeast Missouri State's last five are also 2-3, with a 90-65 home win over Webster Gorloks but losses to Middle Tennessee State and South Carolina. The two teams have met once before, with St. Thomas winning 84-72 in 2025. Pythia projects a 84-71 score, a total of 154.5 points, and gives the home team an 87% probability of winning and a 13% chance for the visitors, with a 3% overtime probability. The projected spread is 13 points in favour of St. Thomas, and the model sees a 0% chance the home side will cover that line.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 82.4 | 78.2 | 160.6 | +4.2 | 40% |
| Season at home (2) | 93.0 | 79.0 | 172.0 | +14.0 | 50% |
| Season away (3) | 75.3 | 77.7 | 153.0 | -2.3 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 79.0 | 72.2 | 151.2 | +6.8 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.4 | 78.2 | 160.6 | +4.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 68.7 | 77.0 | 145.7 | -8.3 | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (3) | 76.3 | 62.0 | 138.3 | +14.3 | 67% |
| vs Weaker (21) | 85.2 | 73.7 | 158.9 | +11.5 | 76% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 79.8 | 77.5 | 157.2 | +2.2 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 88.0 | 72.0 | 160.0 | +16.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 71.5 | 83.0 | 154.5 | -11.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 73.4 | 71.2 | 144.6 | +2.2 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.0 | 75.2 | 151.2 | +0.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 68.0 | 78.0 | 146.0 | -10.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (15) | 70.0 | 71.6 | 141.6 | -1.6 | 47% |
| vs Weaker (12) | 78.9 | 67.9 | 146.8 | +11.0 | 92% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (29) | 40.4 | 33.4 | 73.9 | +7.0 | 83% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 42.5 | 31.7 | 74.2 | +10.8 | 94% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 37.5 | 35.9 | 73.4 | +1.6 | 67% | - |
| Last 10 (9) | 37.8 | 34.2 | 72.0 | +3.6 | 78% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.2 | 35.8 | 72.0 | +0.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 27.5 | 36.5 | 64.0 | -9.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (3) | 40.0 | 30.7 | 70.7 | +9.3 | 100% | - |
| vs Weaker (21) | 40.4 | 33.7 | 74.0 | +6.7 | 86% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.4 | 33.5 | 68.9 | +1.9 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 35.2 | 34.2 | 69.4 | +1.0 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 35.6 | 32.8 | 68.4 | +2.9 | 64% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.5 | 34.2 | 67.7 | -0.7 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.4 | 38.2 | 74.6 | -1.8 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 32.0 | 33.0 | 65.0 | -1.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (15) | 33.4 | 34.2 | 67.6 | -0.8 | 53% | - |
| vs Weaker (12) | 36.4 | 32.6 | 69.0 | +3.8 | 58% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 15/11/25 | Southeast Missouri State v St. Thomas (Minn.) | 72-84 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Army | 77-79 |
| 12/11/26 | H | Macalester | 119-82 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Wisc. Green Bay | 67-76 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Minnesota | 62-76 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Presbyterian | 87-78 |
| 08/03/26 | H | North Dakota | 66-67 |
| 06/03/26 | H | South Dakota St. | 80-67 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Nebraska O. | 68-53 |
| 27/02/26 | H | North Dakota St | 84-62 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Denver | 80-82 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Middle Tenn. St. | 75-88 |
| 08/11/26 | A | South Carolina | 68-78 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Webster Gorloks | 90-65 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Lipscomb | 86-79 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Morehead State | 61-66 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Lindenwood | 68-66 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Tennessee Tech | 89-73 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Tennessee State | 71-79 |
| 21/02/26 | A | UALR | 70-65 |
| 18/02/26 | A | UT Martin | 56-53 OT |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLWL | 40% |
| Home | LW | 50% |
| Away | WLL | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Win % | 40% | 50% | 33% |
| Points / game | 82.4 | 93.0 | 75.3 |
| Allowed / game | 78.2 | 79.0 | 77.7 |
| Point differential | +4.2 | +14.0 | -2.3 |
| Avg total | 160.6 | 172.0 | 153.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 20% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLL | 50% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 79.8 | 88.0 | 71.5 |
| Allowed / game | 77.5 | 72.0 | 83.0 |
| Point differential | +2.2 | +16.0 | -11.5 |
| Avg total | 157.2 | 160.0 | 154.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Dakota St. | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 72.8 | 57.5 | +15.2 |
| 2 |  Nebraska O. | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 68.2 | 77.0 | -8.8 |
| 3 | St. Thomas (Minn.) | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 82.4 | 78.2 | +4.2 |
| 4 |  UMKC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 75.4 | 77.8 | -2.4 |
| 5 |  North Dakota St | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 77.2 | 83.0 | -5.8 |
| 6 |  Oral Roberts | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.3 | 68.0 | +5.3 |
| 7 |  North Dakota | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.3 | 89.0 | -15.7 |
| 8 |  South Dakota Coyotes | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 84.4 | 82.8 | +1.6 |
| 9 |  Denver | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 60.3 | 71.7 | -11.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tennessee State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 98.0 | 77.8 | +20.2 |
| 2 |  UT Martin | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 85.0 | 74.2 | +10.8 |
| 3 | Southeast Missouri State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.8 | 77.5 | +2.2 |
| 4 |  Tennessee Tech | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 92.0 | 90.0 | +2.0 |
| 5 |  Lindenwood | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 82.0 | 69.8 | +12.2 |
| 6 |  Siu Edwardsville | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 71.6 | 72.8 | -1.2 |
| 7 |  Morehead State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.3 | 83.3 | -7.0 |
| 8 |  Southern Indiana | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 78.0 | 66.5 | +11.5 |
| 9 |  Western Illinois | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 74.5 | 73.2 | +1.2 |
| 10 |  Eastern Illinois | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 69.0 | 80.0 | -11.0 |
| 11 |  UALR | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 73.3 | 86.3 | -13.0 |
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