PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Stanford faces Sacramento State on 19 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model ranking Stanford as the clear favourite at 93% because of their 3-1 record, 78.5 points per game and only 69.2 allowed, while Sacramento State sits at 1-2, 74.3 points scored and 77.3 allowed. Stanford has won all three of its home games, averaging 82.0 points and allowing 67.0, and has won three of its last five, including a 91-73 home victory over Rice and an 81-63 win over Oakland, though it recently fell 68-76 to UNLV away. Sacramento State has struggled on the road, losing its sole away game 77-83 to Santa Clara, and has won only two of its last five, with a 90-74 home win over William Jessup. The teams have met once before, with Stanford winning 91-73 in 2023. Pythia projects a 85-68 score, 153.5 total points, and a 93% chance that Stanford will win; the model also estimates a 7% chance of a Sacramento State victory and a 2% likelihood of overtime. The home team's line is not listed, so no cover probability is given. The game will be a showcase of Stanford's defensive strength against a struggling Sacramento State offense.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 78.5 | 69.2 | 147.8 | +9.2 | 75% |
| Season at home (3) | 82.0 | 67.0 | 149.0 | +15.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 68.0 | 76.0 | 144.0 | -8.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.4 | 71.7 | 150.1 | +6.7 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.4 | 68.2 | 143.6 | +7.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 71.3 | 78.7 | 150.0 | -7.3 | 50% |
| vs Similar (14) | 75.9 | 73.6 | 149.5 | +2.2 | 50% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 76.4 | 67.4 | 143.8 | +9.0 | 80% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 74.3 | 77.3 | 151.7 | -3.0 | 33% |
| Season at home (2) | 73.0 | 74.5 | 147.5 | -1.5 | 50% |
| Season away (1) | 77.0 | 83.0 | 160.0 | -6.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 73.3 | 79.5 | 152.8 | -6.2 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 70.2 | 73.0 | 143.2 | -2.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (21) | 73.8 | 84.8 | 158.6 | -11.0 | 19% |
| vs Similar (7) | 78.4 | 78.4 | 156.9 | +0.0 | 43% |
| vs Weaker (1) | 94.0 | 46.0 | 140.0 | +48.0 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.0 | 34.7 | 69.7 | +0.4 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 34.9 | 33.0 | 67.9 | +1.9 | 59% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 35.2 | 36.8 | 72.0 | -1.7 | 38% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.6 | 33.3 | 67.9 | +1.3 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.6 | 32.4 | 67.0 | +2.2 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 34.8 | 39.8 | 74.7 | -5.0 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 34.4 | 33.9 | 68.2 | +0.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 36.1 | 32.7 | 68.8 | +3.4 | 60% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (29) | 36.2 | 40.6 | 76.8 | -4.3 | 21% | - |
| Last 30 at home (12) | 41.2 | 37.1 | 78.2 | +4.1 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 32.8 | 43.0 | 75.8 | -10.2 | 0% | - |
| Last 10 (9) | 34.9 | 39.9 | 74.8 | -5.0 | 22% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.6 | 36.0 | 71.6 | -0.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (20) | 35.8 | 41.6 | 77.4 | -5.9 | 15% | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 33.7 | 39.7 | 73.4 | -6.0 | 14% | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | 49.0 | 23.0 | 72.0 | +26.0 | 100% | - |
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| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 11/11/23 | Stanford v Sacramento State | 91-73 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | UNLV | 68-76 |
| 10/11/26 | H | Rice | 91-73 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Oakland | 81-63 |
| 03/11/26 | H | East. Washington | 74-65 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Pittsburgh | 63-64 |
| 07/03/26 | A | NC State | 85-84 |
| 05/03/26 | A | Notre Dame | 86-78 |
| 28/02/26 | H | SMU Mustangs | 95-75 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Pittsburgh | 75-67 |
| 21/02/26 | A | California | 66-72 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/26 | H | UC Davis | 56-75 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Santa Clara | 77-83 |
| 03/11/26 | H | William Jessup | 90-74 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Idaho | 45-68 |
| 03/03/26 | H | Idaho State | 83-65 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Montana State | 61-82 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Montana | 73-81 |
| 22/02/26 | H | Idaho | 80-86 |
| 20/02/26 | H | East. Washington | 94-102 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Northern Arizona | 74-79 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWL | 75% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Win % | 75% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 78.5 | 82.0 | 68.0 |
| Allowed / game | 69.2 | 67.0 | 76.0 |
| Point differential | +9.2 | +15.0 | -8.0 |
| Avg total | 147.8 | 149.0 | 144.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 67% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLL | 33% |
| Home | WL | 50% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Points / game | 74.3 | 73.0 | 77.0 |
| Allowed / game | 77.3 | 74.5 | 83.0 |
| Point differential | -3.0 | -1.5 | -6.0 |
| Avg total | 151.7 | 147.5 | 160.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Louisville | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 63.5 | +32.0 |
| 2 |  SMU Mustangs | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 92.0 | 67.5 | +24.5 |
| 3 |  Boston College | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 76.3 | 53.0 | +23.3 |
| 4 |  Notre Dame | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 87.5 | 64.2 | +23.2 |
| 5 |  Virginia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 91.8 | 69.6 | +22.2 |
| 6 |  Virginia Tech | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.8 | 67.8 | +22.0 |
| 7 |  NC State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.8 | 62.2 | +21.5 |
| 8 |  Pittsburgh | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.2 | 64.5 | +18.8 |
| 9 |  Georgia Tech | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 82.5 | 70.8 | +11.8 |
| 10 |  California | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 85.8 | 74.8 | +11.0 |
| 11 |  Duke | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 90.0 | 57.0 | +33.0 |
| 12 |  Miami (FL) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.2 | 59.2 | +24.0 |
| 13 |  Wake Forest | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 76.2 | 62.8 | +13.5 |
| 14 |  North Carolina | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.8 | 70.8 | +13.0 |
| 15 | Stanford | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 78.5 | 69.2 | +9.2 |
| 16 |  Clemson | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.2 | 76.8 | +7.5 |
| 17 |  Syracuse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 63.3 | +22.0 |
| 18 |  Florida State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.0 | 80.2 | -1.2 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Idaho | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 86.5 | 71.5 | +15.0 |
| 2 |  Northern Colorado | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 82.0 | 69.2 | +12.8 |
| 3 |  Portland State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.5 | 73.2 | +8.2 |
| 4 |  Montana | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.3 | 63.3 | +14.0 |
| 5 | Sacramento State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 74.3 | 77.3 | -3.0 |
| 6 |  Montana State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 80.0 | -4.0 |
| 7 |  East. Washington | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 80.5 | 83.5 | -3.0 |
| 8 |  Weber State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 74.5 | 86.2 | -11.8 |
| 9 |  Northern Arizona | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 69.5 | 87.8 | -18.2 |
| 10 |  Idaho State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 67.3 | 92.0 | -24.7 |
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