PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Stanford faces Sacramento State on 19 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model ranking Stanford as the clear favourite at 93% because of their 3-1 record, 78.5 points per game and only 69.2 allowed, while Sacramento State sits at 1-2, 74.3 points scored and 77.3 allowed. Stanford has won all three of its home games, averaging 82.0 points and allowing 67.0, and has won three of its last five, including a 91-73 home victory over Rice and an 81-63 win over Oakland, though it recently fell 68-76 to UNLV away. Sacramento State has struggled on the road, losing its sole away game 77-83 to Santa Clara, and has won only two of its last five, with a 90-74 home win over William Jessup. The teams have met once before, with Stanford winning 91-73 in 2023. Pythia projects a 85-68 score, 153.5 total points, and a 93% chance that Stanford will win; the model also estimates a 7% chance of a Sacramento State victory and a 2% likelihood of overtime. The home team's line is not listed, so no cover probability is given. The game will be a showcase of Stanford's defensive strength against a struggling Sacramento State offense.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 78.5 | 69.2 | 147.8 | +9.2 | 75% |
| Season at home (3) | 82.0 | 67.0 | 149.0 | +15.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 68.0 | 76.0 | 144.0 | -8.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.4 | 71.7 | 150.1 | +6.7 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.4 | 68.2 | 143.6 | +7.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 71.3 | 78.7 | 150.0 | -7.3 | 50% |
| vs Similar (14) | 75.9 | 73.6 | 149.5 | +2.2 | 50% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 76.4 | 67.4 | 143.8 | +9.0 | 80% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 74.3 | 77.3 | 151.7 | -3.0 | 33% |
| Season at home (2) | 73.0 | 74.5 | 147.5 | -1.5 | 50% |
| Season away (1) | 77.0 | 83.0 | 160.0 | -6.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 73.3 | 79.5 | 152.8 | -6.2 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 70.2 | 73.0 | 143.2 | -2.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (21) | 73.8 | 84.8 | 158.6 | -11.0 | 19% |
| vs Similar (7) | 78.4 | 78.4 | 156.9 | +0.0 | 43% |
| vs Weaker (1) | 94.0 | 46.0 | 140.0 | +48.0 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.0 | 34.7 | 69.7 | +0.4 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 34.9 | 33.0 | 67.9 | +1.9 | 59% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 35.2 | 36.8 | 72.0 | -1.7 | 38% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.6 | 33.3 | 67.9 | +1.3 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.6 | 32.4 | 67.0 | +2.2 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 34.8 | 39.8 | 74.7 | -5.0 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 34.4 | 33.9 | 68.2 | +0.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 36.1 | 32.7 | 68.8 | +3.4 | 60% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.2 | 40.3 | 76.5 | -4.1 | 23% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 40.8 | 36.8 | 77.5 | +4.0 | 54% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 32.8 | 43.0 | 75.8 | -10.2 | 0% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.0 | 39.2 | 74.2 | -4.2 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.2 | 35.2 | 71.4 | +1.0 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (21) | 35.8 | 41.2 | 77.0 | -5.4 | 19% | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 33.7 | 39.7 | 73.4 | -6.0 | 14% | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | 49.0 | 23.0 | 72.0 | +26.0 | 100% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 11/11/23 | Stanford v Sacramento State | 91-73 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | UNLV | 68-76 |
| 10/11/26 | H | Rice | 91-73 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Oakland | 81-63 |
| 03/11/26 | H | East. Washington | 74-65 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Pittsburgh | 63-64 |
| 07/03/26 | A | NC State | 85-84 |
| 05/03/26 | A | Notre Dame | 86-78 |
| 28/02/26 | H | SMU Mustangs | 95-75 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Pittsburgh | 75-67 |
| 21/02/26 | A | California | 66-72 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/26 | H | UC Davis | 56-75 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Santa Clara | 77-83 |
| 03/11/26 | H | William Jessup | 90-74 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Idaho | 45-68 |
| 03/03/26 | H | Idaho State | 83-65 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Montana State | 61-82 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Montana | 73-81 |
| 22/02/26 | H | Idaho | 80-86 |
| 20/02/26 | H | East. Washington | 94-102 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Northern Arizona | 74-79 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWL | 75% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Win % | 75% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 78.5 | 82.0 | 68.0 |
| Allowed / game | 69.2 | 67.0 | 76.0 |
| Point differential | +9.2 | +15.0 | -8.0 |
| Avg total | 147.8 | 149.0 | 144.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 67% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLL | 33% |
| Home | WL | 50% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Points / game | 74.3 | 73.0 | 77.0 |
| Allowed / game | 77.3 | 74.5 | 83.0 |
| Point differential | -3.0 | -1.5 | -6.0 |
| Avg total | 151.7 | 147.5 | 160.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SMU Mustangs | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 92.0 | 67.5 | +24.5 |
| 2 |  Boston College | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 76.3 | 53.0 | +23.3 |
| 3 |  Notre Dame | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 87.5 | 64.2 | +23.2 |
| 4 |  Virginia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 91.8 | 69.6 | +22.2 |
| 5 |  Virginia Tech | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.8 | 67.8 | +22.0 |
| 6 |  NC State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.8 | 62.2 | +21.5 |
| 7 |  Pittsburgh | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.2 | 64.5 | +18.8 |
| 8 |  Georgia Tech | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 82.5 | 70.8 | +11.8 |
| 9 |  California | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 85.8 | 74.8 | +11.0 |
| 10 |  Duke | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 90.0 | 57.0 | +33.0 |
| 11 |  Miami (FL) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.2 | 59.2 | +24.0 |
| 12 |  Wake Forest | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 76.2 | 62.8 | +13.5 |
| 13 |  North Carolina | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.8 | 70.8 | +13.0 |
| 14 | Stanford | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 78.5 | 69.2 | +9.2 |
| 15 |  Clemson | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.2 | 76.8 | +7.5 |
| 16 |  Syracuse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 63.3 | +22.0 |
| 17 |  Louisville | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 89.7 | 75.0 | +14.7 |
| 18 |  Florida State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.0 | 80.2 | -1.2 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Idaho | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 86.5 | 71.5 | +15.0 |
| 2 |  Montana | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 78.0 | 65.2 | +12.8 |
| 3 |  Northern Colorado | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 82.0 | 69.2 | +12.8 |
| 4 |  Portland State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.5 | 73.2 | +8.2 |
| 5 | Sacramento State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 74.3 | 77.3 | -3.0 |
| 6 |  Montana State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 80.0 | -4.0 |
| 7 |  East. Washington | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 80.5 | 83.5 | -3.0 |
| 8 |  Weber State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 74.5 | 86.2 | -11.8 |
| 9 |  Northern Arizona | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 69.5 | 87.8 | -18.2 |
| 10 |  Idaho State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 67.3 | 92.0 | -24.7 |
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the operation of our website.
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to build a profile of you.
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they will not be adjusted to your interests.
