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Sweden vs Montenegro Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 23 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 16:30
Final 86-83 (OT)
20-14 12-19 21-18 19-21 14-11
Position#26
Record2-3
FormWLWLL
Points / game73.0
Allowed / game79.6
Sweden 🏆
vs
Position#19
Record3-2
FormLWWWL
Points / game81.4
Allowed / game79.6
EuropeEuroBasketRound 6· Hovet
Other2023
Meetings · Sweden v Montenegro
01 Sep 2025
SWED81
MONT87
23 Feb 2025
SWED86
MONT83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sweden winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Montenegro winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SwedenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSweden
Date
Competition
Israel
#52
W
95-83
95
83
+12
no box
A28/08
World Cup
Estonia
#55
W
87-82
87
82
+5
no box
A11/11
World Cup
Israel
#52
W
71-68
71
68
+3
no box
H14/11
World Cup
Germany
#2
L
66-73
66
73
-7
no box
A24/02
World Cup
Estonia
#55
L
71-72
71
72
-1
no box
H27/02
World Cup
Bulgaria
#13
W
84-70
84
70
+14
no box
H22/02
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
70-95
70
95
-25
54avg 60
A25/02
EuroBasket
Germany
#8
W
73-72
73
72
+1
64avg 60
H22/11
EuroBasket
Germany
#8
L
61-80
61
80
-19
50avg 60
A25/11
EuroBasket
Bulgaria
#13
L
77-81 OT
77
81
-4
73avg 60
A20/02
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-23
28-15
18-22
25-23
27-13
12-24
20-24
28-21
17-16
20-24
16-8
18-20
19-21
12-19
14-17
21-16
16-17
14-11
14-15
27-29
29-22
21-21
12-12
22-15
24-27
13-23
20-25
13-20
26-18
11-19
18-19
18-16
19-23
12-18
17-19
13-20
22-25
17-9
15-24
16-12
153.1Avg total
75.5Scored
77.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)73.079.6152.6-6.640%
Season at home (2)78.571.0149.5+7.5100%
Season away (3)69.385.3154.7-16.00%
Last 10 (10)75.577.6153.1-2.150%
Last 5 (5)73.079.6152.6-6.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)68.775.4144.1-6.627%
vs Similar (5)83.284.0167.2-0.840%
vs Weaker (14)83.073.6156.6+9.464%
This opponent (Montenegro) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MontenegroLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMontenegro
Date
Competition
Czech Republic
#60
W
88-70
88
70
+18
no box
H26/02
World Cup
Mexico
#26
W
91-71
91
71
+20
no box
A25/08
World Cup
Egypt
#27
W
89-74
89
74
+15
no box
H27/08
World Cup
Lithuania
#9
L
71-91
71
91
-20
no box
H29/08
World Cup
Greece
#25
W
73-69
73
69
+4
no box
A03/09
World Cup
Germany
#8
L
61-85
61
85
-24
no box
A22/02
EuroBasket
Sweden
#26
W
95-70
95
70
+25
97avg 80
H25/02
EuroBasket
Bulgaria
#13
W
85-62
85
62
+23
81avg 80
H22/11
EuroBasket
Bulgaria
#13
W
90-86
90
86
+4
84avg 80
A25/11
EuroBasket
Germany
#8
L
76-95
76
95
-19
57avg 80
H20/02
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-14
18-11
20-21
18-24
19-19
29-20
20-19
23-13
27-17
24-20
19-19
19-18
27-26
13-22
10-18
21-25
19-14
17-16
14-12
23-27
10-28
20-19
20-11
11-27
27-24
23-13
25-20
20-13
20-16
24-11
21-25
20-10
22-21
19-27
25-19
24-19
17-26
21-24
13-25
25-20
159.2Avg total
81.9Scored
77.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)81.479.6161.0+1.860%
Season at home (3)85.375.7161.0+9.767%
Season away (2)75.585.5161.0-10.050%
Last 10 (10)81.977.3159.2+4.670%
Last 5 (5)81.479.6161.0+1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)70.679.9150.4-9.329%
vs Similar (9)76.275.8152.0+0.456%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)82.270.9153.1+11.486%
This opponent (Sweden) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +1.5+1.5Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: +2.5+2.5Q3Q3: -2.1-2.1Q3: -0.2-0.2Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: +0.8+0.8
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +1.5+1.5Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: +2.5+2.5Q3Q3: -2.1-2.1Q3: -0.2-0.2Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: +0.8+0.8
SwedenMontenegro
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SwedenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Israel
#52
W
52-38
52
38
+14
A28/08
World Cup
Estonia
#55
W
39-37
39
37
+2
A11/11
World Cup
Israel
#52
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H14/11
World Cup
Germany
#2
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A24/02
World Cup
Estonia
#55
W
30-28
30
28
+2
H27/02
World Cup
Bulgaria
#13
W
50-43
50
43
+7
H22/02
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
37-50
37
50
-13
A25/02
EuroBasket
Germany
#8
D
37-37
37
37
+0
H22/11
EuroBasket
Germany
#8
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A25/11
EuroBasket
Bulgaria
#13
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A20/02
EuroBasket
77.1Avg total
38.3Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.937.575.4+0.450%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.535.873.3+1.753%-
Last 30 away (15)38.339.277.5-0.947%-
Last 10 (10)38.338.877.1-0.550%-
Last 5 (5)38.841.079.8-2.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)33.940.574.4-6.527%-
vs Similar (5)40.839.480.2+1.440%-
vs Weaker (14)40.134.574.6+5.671%-
This opponent (Montenegro) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MontenegroLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Czech Republic
#60
W
50-25
50
25
+25
H26/02
World Cup
Mexico
#26
W
48-39
48
39
+9
A25/08
World Cup
Egypt
#27
W
51-37
51
37
+14
H27/08
World Cup
Lithuania
#9
L
40-48
40
48
-8
H29/08
World Cup
Greece
#25
W
36-30
36
30
+6
A03/09
World Cup
Germany
#8
L
30-47
30
47
-17
A22/02
EuroBasket
Sweden
#26
W
50-37
50
37
+13
H25/02
EuroBasket
Bulgaria
#13
W
44-27
44
27
+17
H22/11
EuroBasket
Bulgaria
#13
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A25/11
EuroBasket
Germany
#8
L
38-50
38
50
-12
H20/02
EuroBasket
81.6Avg total
42.8Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.937.176.1+1.857%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.036.176.1+3.964%-
Last 30 away (16)38.038.076.0+0.050%-
Last 10 (10)42.838.881.6+4.060%-
Last 5 (5)40.641.882.4-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)33.042.775.7-9.729%-
vs Similar (9)38.938.076.9+0.944%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)41.933.875.7+8.179%-
This opponent (Sweden) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Swedentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sweden: 71.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers28.0 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.614.0
42.9%
50.6%28.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.89.2
33.1%
32.5%27.6
🏀 Free throws22.416.2
72.3%
71.4%16.2
They take 60.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Montenegrotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Montenegro: 81.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.2 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.220.6
55.4%
50.6%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.67.2
35.0%
32.5%21.6
🏀 Free throws23.618.2
77.1%
71.4%18.2
They take 57.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 5/5 games with a box score before 23 Feb 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sweden
LLWLWLLWWW
Montenegro
LWWWLWLWWW
#26
League position
#19
-9.8
Net rating
+3.1
100.2
Offensive rating
114.5
110.0
Defensive rating
111.4
46.0%
Effective FG%
54.3%
46.4%
Opp. effective FG%
53.2%
15.4%
Turnover %
18.9%
25.0%
Off. rebound %
35.1%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.41
33.1%
3-point %
35.0%
62.9%
Assist %
44.6%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence100.2 · 114.5Defence110.0 · 111.4Shooting46.0% · 54.3%3-point %33.1% · 35.0%Ball care15.4% · 18.9%Off. rebounds25.0% · 35.1%Free throws0.37 · 0.41Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ Sweden   ■ Montenegro
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Sweden wins
1
Montenegro wins
DateGameScore
25/02/24Montenegro v Sweden95-70
Swedenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/02/25ABulgaria77-81 OT
25/11/24AGermany61-80
22/11/24HGermany73-72
25/02/24AMontenegro70-95
22/02/24HBulgaria84-70
27/02/23HEstonia71-72
24/02/23AGermany66-73
14/11/22HIsrael71-68
11/11/22AEstonia87-82
28/08/22AIsrael95-83
Montenegrolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/02/25HGermany76-95
25/11/24ABulgaria90-86
22/11/24HBulgaria85-62
25/02/24HSweden95-70
22/02/24AGermany61-85
03/09/23AGreece73-69
29/08/23HLithuania71-91
27/08/23HEgypt89-74
25/08/23AMexico91-71
26/02/23HCzech Republic88-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sweden
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL40%
HomeWW100%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %40%100%0%
Points / game73.078.569.3
Allowed / game79.671.085.3
Point differential-6.6+7.5-16.0
Avg total152.6149.5154.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %20%0%33%
Montenegro
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL60%
HomeWWL67%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %60%67%50%
Points / game81.485.375.5
Allowed / game79.675.785.5
Point differential+1.8+9.7-10.0
Avg total161.0161.0161.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Serbia550100%85.664.4+21.2
2 France550100%78.066.8+11.2
3 Latvia660100%79.269.3+9.8
4 Lithuania54180%80.063.2+16.8
5 Italy54180%83.872.2+11.6
6 Estonia54180%78.271.8+6.4
7 Slovenia54180%83.277.4+5.8
8 Israel54180%81.876.8+5.0
9 Greece54180%77.673.0+4.6
10 Croatia1511473%84.571.3+13.2
11 Bulgaria1510567%78.874.6+4.2
12 Portugal117464%82.374.0+8.3
13 Bosnia & Herzegovina53260%91.476.2+15.2
14 Germany53260%78.867.6+11.2
15 Turkey53260%79.276.8+2.4
16 Montenegro53260%81.479.6+1.8
17 Georgia53260%73.071.6+1.4
18 Great Britain53260%78.680.4-1.8
19 Romania148657%72.072.1-0.1
20 North Macedonia116555%73.270.9+2.3
21 Poland116555%76.576.5+0.1
22 Belgium63350%72.265.8+6.3
23 Spain63350%68.869.2-0.3
24 Slovakia168850%72.072.9-0.9
25 Denmark1991047%73.673.0+0.6
26 Norway146843%71.176.0-4.9
27 Czech Republic52340%81.879.6+2.2
28 Iceland52340%75.079.4-4.4
29 Sweden52340%73.079.6-6.6
30 Ireland104640%73.984.4-10.5
31 Austria1661038%75.077.2-2.2
32 Switzerland1661038%67.871.9-4.2
33 Kosovo83538%76.081.2-5.2
34 Netherlands51420%77.282.2-5.0
35 Finland51420%78.487.6-9.2
36 Hungary51420%71.280.8-9.6
37 Luxembourg81712%75.685.2-9.6
38 Albania81712%73.285.8-12.5
39 Cyprus171166%63.582.4-18.9
40 Ukraine5050%73.884.8-11.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 40 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Sweden201221191486
Montenegro141918211183
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