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TCU vs Southern Univ. Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Projected 90-66
Projected total 155.3
Final 106-54
49-28 57-26
Position#25
Record1-0
FormWLWLW
Points / game98.0
Allowed / game59.0
TCU 🏆
USA
Vs
98%
■ TCU 98%■ SOUT 2%
Pythia win probability
Southern Univ.
USA
Position#406
Record0-1
FormWWWLL
Points / game72.0
Allowed / game85.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · TCU v Southern Univ.
06 Nov 2026
TCU106
SOUT54
06 Nov 2023
TCU108
SOUT75
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

TCU faces Southern Univ. in an NCAA contest on 6 November 2026, with the model rating TCU as the clear favourite, reflected in a 98% win probability and a projected 90-66 score that places TCU at the top of the league with a 1-0 record and 98.0 points per game while allowing 59.0; Southern Univ., meanwhile, sits at 0-1 with 72.0 points per game and 85.0 allowed. TCU's single game shows a dominant 98-59 home win, while Southern Univ. has a single loss 72-85 away, and both teams have identical 3-2 records over their last five games. The only head-to-head encounter ended 108-75 in favour of TCU last year. Pythia assigns a 51% chance that TCU will cover the home line of -23.5 and a 48% probability of the over on the 156.0 total, with a 1% chance of overtime. The projected total of 155.3 points sits just below the total line, suggesting a close finish for the fans.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

TCU winWon
97.6%fair 1.02
Best odds1.01
Implied94.2%
Edge+3.4pp
Southern Univ. winLost
2.4%fair 41.71
Best odds51.00
Implied5.8%
Edge-3.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TCUUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
West Virginia
#147
W
60-54
60
54
+6
H21/02
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
W
90-78
90
78
+12
H25/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
W
77-68
77
68
+9
A28/02
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
W
73-65
73
65
+8
A04/03
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
W
73-63
73
63
+10
H07/03
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
W
95-88
95
88
+7
H12/03
NCAA
Kansas
#58
L
73-78
73
78
-5
A13/03
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
66-64
66
64
+2
A19/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
58-81
58
81
-23
A21/03
NCAA
Lindenwood
#245
W
98-59
98
59
+39
H03/11
NCAA
1H
2H
30-25
30-29
33-30
57-48
41-38
36-30
36-39
37-26
32-29
41-34
43-46
52-42
34-31
39-47
39-24
27-40
34-38
24-43
57-37
41-22
146.1Avg total
76.3Scored
69.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)98.059.0157.0+39.0100%
Season at home (1)98.059.0157.0+39.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)76.369.8146.1+6.580%
Last 5 (5)78.074.0152.0+4.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)65.875.2141.0-9.525%
vs Similar (15)76.673.5150.1+3.173%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)82.771.0153.7+11.773%
This opponent (Southern Univ.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Southern Univ.USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas Southern
#281
L
73-74
73
74
-1
A17/02
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
W
87-73
87
73
+14
H21/02
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
L
71-82
71
82
-11
H27/02
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
L
79-82
79
82
-3
H28/02
NCAA
Alabama State
#330
W
71-64
71
64
+7
A04/03
NCAA
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#172
W
88-85
88
85
+3
A06/03
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
84-81
84
81
+3
H13/03
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
W
73-70
73
70
+3
A14/03
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
66-72
66
72
-6
H14/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#34
L
72-85
72
85
-13
A03/11
NCAA
1H
2H
41-27
32-47
48-24
39-49
33-32
38-50
39-49
40-33
28-34
43-30
43-30
45-55
39-37
45-44
43-37
30-33
28-41
38-31
38-40
34-45
153.2Avg total
76.4Scored
76.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)72.085.0157.0-13.00%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)72.085.0157.0-13.00%
Last 10 (10)76.476.8153.2-0.450%
Last 5 (5)76.678.6155.2-2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)65.390.0155.3-24.70%
vs Similar (12)78.279.1157.2-0.950%
vs Weaker (14)74.974.6149.5+0.257%
This opponent (TCU) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151Actual: Over 151
Over 151
60.6%
@ 1.71+6.1pp
Under 151
39.4%
@ 2.05-6.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Be
1.70
Under
Bet365
2.05
Over/Under 156 · main lineActual: Over 156
Over 156
48.0%
@ 2.35+3.2pp
Under 156
52.0%
@ 1.86-3.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.54
Over/Under 161Actual: Under 161
Over 161
35.6%
Under 161
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

TCU total 84Actual: TCU over 84
Over 84
72.0%
Under 84
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TCU total 88 · main lineActual: TCU over 88
Over 88
56.4%
@ 1.85+6.4pp
Under 88
43.6%
@ 1.85-6.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
TCU total 92Actual: TCU over 92
Over 92
39.7%
Under 92
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southern Univ. total 60Actual: Southern Univ. under 60
Over 60
72.4%
Under 60
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southern Univ. total 64 · main lineActual: Southern Univ. under 64
Over 64
57.0%
@ 1.87+7.3pp
Under 64
43.0%
@ 1.85-7.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Southern Univ. total 68Actual: Southern Univ. under 68
Over 68
40.4%
Under 68
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread TCU -26.5Actual: TCU -26.5
TCU -26.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
SOUT +26.5
no forecast
@ 1.71
Best 5 market prices
TCU
Bet365
2.25
Pinnacle
2.11
SOUT
Marathon Be
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.57
Spread TCU -23.5 · main lineActual: TCU -23.5
TCU -23.5
50.9%
@ 1.87-0.2pp
SOUT +23.5
49.1%
@ 1.95+0.2pp
Best 5 market prices
TCU
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.69
SOUT
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Spread TCU -20.5Actual: TCU -20.5
TCU -20.5
61.5%
@ 1.57+2.6pp
SOUT +20.5
38.5%
@ 2.25-2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
TCU
Bet365
1.57
SOUT
Bet365
2.25

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +4.2+4.21st half: +2.9+2.92nd half2nd half: +2.3+2.32nd half: -3.3-3.3
-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +4.2+4.21st half: +2.9+2.92nd half2nd half: +2.3+2.32nd half: -3.3-3.3
TCUSouthern Univ.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
TCULast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
West Virginia
#147
W
30-25
30
25
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
W
33-30
33
30
+3
H25/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A04/03
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
W
32-29
32
29
+3
H07/03
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H12/03
NCAA
Kansas
#58
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A13/03
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
39-24
39
24
+15
A19/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
34-38
34
38
-4
A21/03
NCAA
Lindenwood
#245
W
57-37
57
37
+20
H03/11
NCAA
71.6Avg total
37.9Scored
33.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75
Last 30 (30)35.735.270.9+0.547%33%
Last 30 at home (17)36.634.671.2+2.153%41%
Last 30 away (13)34.436.070.4-1.638%23%
Last 10 (10)37.933.771.6+4.270%30%
Last 5 (5)41.435.276.6+6.260%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)30.038.568.5-8.50%0%
vs Similar (15)35.334.569.7+0.853%33%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)38.335.073.3+3.355%45%
This opponent (Southern Univ.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Southern Univ.Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas Southern
#281
W
41-27
41
27
+14
A17/02
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
W
48-24
48
24
+24
H21/02
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H27/02
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
L
39-49
39
49
-10
H28/02
NCAA
Alabama State
#330
L
28-34
28
34
-6
A04/03
NCAA
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#172
W
43-30
43
30
+13
A06/03
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H13/03
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
W
43-37
43
37
+6
A14/03
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
28-41
28
41
-13
H14/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#34
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A03/11
NCAA
73.1Avg total
38.0Scored
35.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75
Last 30 (30)37.035.372.3+1.843%37%
Last 30 at home (12)39.133.872.8+5.358%25%
Last 30 away (18)35.736.371.9-0.633%44%
Last 10 (10)38.035.173.1+2.960%40%
Last 5 (5)38.237.075.2+1.260%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)30.044.074.0-14.00%33%
vs Similar (12)36.836.773.4+0.133%42%
vs Weaker (14)37.233.670.9+3.657%36%
This opponent (TCU) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: TCU win
TCU win
no forecast
@ 1.05
SOUT win
no forecast
@ 10.75
1st half Spread TCU -14 · main lineActual: TCU -14
TCU -14
no forecast
@ 1.85
SOUT +14
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 75 · main lineActual: Over 75
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
TCU 1st half total 42.5 · main lineActual: TCU over 42.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
Southern Univ. 1st half total 29.5 · main lineActual: Southern Univ. under 29.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.02
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Spread TCU -15.5Actual: TCU -15.5
TCU -15.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
SOUT +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
1st half Spread TCU -12.5Actual: TCU -12.5
TCU -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
SOUT +12.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Spread TCU -16.5Actual: TCU -16.5
TCU -16.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
SOUT +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread TCU -11.5Actual: TCU -11.5
TCU -11.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
SOUT +11.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.60
Under
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Spread TCU -17.5Actual: TCU -17.5
TCU -17.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
SOUT +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread TCU -10.5Actual: TCU -10.5
TCU -10.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
SOUT +10.5
no forecast
@ 2.52
1st half Spread TCU -9.5Actual: TCU -9.5
TCU -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.37
SOUT +9.5
no forecast
@ 2.80
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: TCU (regulation)
TCU
no forecast
@ 1.06
Draw
no forecast
@ 34.00
SOUT
no forecast
@ 13.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
TCU win + total 152.5
🔒 Pro
SOUT win + total 152.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: TCU leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: SOUT leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
TCU (regulation)97.1%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+6.8ppWon
TCU over 77.588.8%1.12
Bet365
1.12		----+5.7ppWon
TCU over 79.584.5%1.18
Bet365
1.18		----+5.6ppWon
Over 14672.2%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+5.2ppWon
Over 14770.0%1.43
Bet365
1.43		----+5.1ppWon
TCU over 75.592.2%1.07
Bet365
1.07		----+5.0ppWon
Over 146.570.7%1.40
Bet365
1.40		----+4.4ppWon
Over 14574.3%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+4.3ppWon
Over 144.574.8%1.31
Bet365
1.31		----+3.8ppWon
Over 145.572.8%1.35
Bet365
1.35		----+3.8ppWon
TCU win97.6%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+3.4ppWon
TCU -3.595.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+3.2ppWon
TCU -17.571.1%1.36
Bet365
1.36		----+3.0ppWon
Over 127.595.8%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+3.0ppWon
TCU -1773.2%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+2.8ppWon
TCU -1870.2%1.37
Bet365
1.37		----+2.7ppWon
Southern Univ. over 51.592.3%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+2.6ppWon
TCU -16.574.0%1.30
Bet365
1.30		----+2.6ppWon
Over 132.592.2%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+2.5ppWon
Over 142.578.6%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+2.4ppWon
TCU -1676.1%1.26
Bet365
1.26		----+2.3ppWon
TCU -13.581.7%1.16
Bet365
1.16		----+2.2ppWon
TCU -15.576.8%1.25
Bet365
1.25		----+2.0ppWon
Southern Univ. over 57.579.5%1.20
Bet365
1.20		----+1.7ppLost
TCU -8.590.7%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+1.7ppWon
Southern Univ. over 55.584.7%1.12
Bet365
1.12		----+1.7ppLost
Over 137.586.5%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+1.5ppWon
Southern Univ. over 53.589.0%1.07
Bet365
1.07		----+1.5ppWon
Under 177.591.6%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----1.1ppWon
Under 172.585.8%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----3.8ppWon
Under 167.577.7%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----7.3ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
TCU wins
0
Southern Univ. wins
DateGameScore
07/11/23TCU v Southern Univ.108-75
TCUlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26HLindenwood98-59
21/03/26ADuke58-81
19/03/26AOhio State66-64
13/03/26AKansas73-78
12/03/26HOklahoma State95-88
07/03/26HCincinnati73-63
04/03/26ATexas Tech73-65
28/02/26AKansas State77-68
25/02/26HArizona State90-78
21/02/26HWest Virginia60-54
Southern Univ.last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26ASMU Mustangs72-85
14/03/26HPrairie View A&M66-72
14/03/26AFlorida A&M73-70
13/03/26HArkansas-Pine Bluff84-81
06/03/26AAlabama A&M Bulldogs88-85
04/03/26AAlabama State71-64
28/02/26HBethune-Cookman79-82
27/02/26HFlorida A&M71-82
21/02/26HGrambling St.87-73
17/02/26ATexas Southern73-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

TCU
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game98.098.0-
Allowed / game59.059.0-
Point differential+39.0+39.0-
Avg total157.0157.0-
Over 156100%100%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Southern Univ.
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
Home--
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %0%-0%
Points / game72.0-72.0
Allowed / game85.0-85.0
Point differential-13.0--13.0
Avg total157.0-157.0
Over 156100%-100%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big 12 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 West Virginia220100%91.049.5+41.5
2 Baylor220100%98.059.0+39.0
3 Houston110100%94.055.0+39.0
4 TCU110100%98.059.0+39.0
5 Colorado110100%94.059.0+35.0
6 Oklahoma State110100%91.060.0+31.0
7 Kansas110100%95.065.0+30.0
8 Texas Tech220100%76.050.0+26.0
9 Cincinnati220100%80.058.5+21.5
10 Brigham Young110100%94.083.0+11.0
11 Arizona State110100%75.065.0+10.0
12 UCF Knights220100%91.585.0+6.5
13 Utah Utes220100%66.560.0+6.5
14 Arizona21150%89.584.0+5.5
15 Kansas State1010%66.068.0-2.0
16 Iowa State1010%76.080.0-4.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southwestern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alabama A&M Bulldogs110100%90.057.0+33.0
2 Prairie View A&M220100%94.577.5+17.0
3 Grambling St.110100%89.087.0+2.0
4 Florida A&M21150%91.072.0+19.0
5 Jackson State21150%64.580.5-16.0
6 Southern Univ.1010%72.085.0-13.0
7 Bethune-Cookman2020%64.077.5-13.5
8 Texas Southern1010%79.0103.0-24.0
9 Alcorn State2020%70.596.5-26.0
10 Alabama State1010%66.097.0-31.0
11 Arkansas-Pine Bluff2020%57.0107.5-50.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
TCU4957106
Southern Univ.282654
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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