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Texas State vs McNeese State Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 22 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 20:30
Projected 78-72
Projected total 149.4
Scheduled
Position#27
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game89.8
Allowed / game62.8
Vs
70%
30%
■ TEXA 70%■ MCNE 30%
Pythia win probability
Position#153
Record2-1
FormWLWLW
Points / game100.3
Allowed / game80.7
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Texas State v McNeese State
22 Nov 2026
TEXA v MCNE
upcoming
21 Nov 2023
TEXA48
MCNE59
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Texas State host McNeese State in the NCAA. Pythia makes Texas State the favourite at 70% and projects 78-72, about 149 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. Texas State are 4-0 this season (89.8 scored, 62.8 allowed a game), form LWWWW; McNeese State are 2-1 this season (100.3 scored, 80.7 allowed a game), form WLWLW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Texas State win
69.6%fair 1.44
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
McNeese State win
30.4%fair 3.29
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy
#84
W
74-62
74
62
+12
H12/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
95-84
95
84
+11
H14/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
90-82 OT
90
82
+8
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
54-67
54
67
-13
A21/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
W
60-57
60
57
+3
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
77-81
77
81
-4
H06/03
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#216
W
67-55
67
55
+12
H03/11
NCAA
Howard Payne
#502
W
135-66
135
66
+69
H06/11
NCAA
UTRGV
#211
W
72-65
72
65
+7
A11/11
NCAA
Southern Miss
#227
W
85-65
85
65
+20
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
36-29
38-33
45-43
50-41
40-33
35-42
18-34
36-33
34-33
26-24
33-37
44-44
35-26
32-29
64-30
71-36
30-28
42-37
44-37
41-28
149.3Avg total
80.9Scored
68.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)89.862.8152.5+27.0100%
Season at home (3)95.762.0157.7+33.7100%
Season away (1)72.065.0137.0+7.0100%
Last 10 (10)80.968.4149.3+12.580%
Last 5 (5)87.266.4153.6+20.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (18)72.475.7148.2-3.344%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)80.663.1143.7+17.592%
This opponent (McNeese State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
McNeese StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
70-54
70
54
+16
H22/02
NCAA
UTRGV
#137
W
75-68
75
68
+7
H24/02
NCAA
New Orleans
#226
W
66-63
66
63
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
75-65
75
65
+10
A03/03
NCAA
UTRGV
#137
W
84-80 OT
84
80
+4
H11/03
NCAA
Stephen F. Austin
#12
W
76-59
76
59
+17
A11/03
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
68-78
68
78
-10
A19/03
NCAA
UAB
#220
W
99-78
99
78
+21
H02/11
NCAA
North Texas
#99
L
67-77
67
77
-10
A05/11
NCAA
CBS Ambassadors
#414
W
135-87
135
87
+48
H10/11
NCAA
1H
2H
24-23
46-31
34-22
41-46
39-29
27-34
40-31
35-34
31-23
27-35
42-25
34-34
35-38
33-40
44-35
55-43
32-34
35-43
63-44
72-43
152.4Avg total
81.5Scored
70.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)100.380.7181.0+19.767%
Season at home (2)117.082.5199.5+34.5100%
Season away (1)67.077.0144.0-10.00%
Last 10 (10)81.570.9152.4+10.680%
Last 5 (5)89.075.8164.8+13.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)71.0112.0183.0-41.00%
vs Similar (5)67.469.0136.4-1.640%
vs Weaker (24)81.366.3147.6+15.092%
This opponent (Texas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 144
Over 144
62.6%
Under 144
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 149
Over 149
50.4%
Under 149
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 154
Over 154
38.2%
Under 154
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Texas State total 79.5
Over 79.5
42.5%
Under 79.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Texas State total 83.5
Over 83.5
27.9%
Under 83.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Texas State total 87.5
Over 87.5
16.4%
Under 87.5
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
McNeese State total 61.5
Over 61.5
84.1%
Under 61.5
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
McNeese State total 65.5
Over 65.5
72.7%
Under 65.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
McNeese State total 69.5
Over 69.5
58.4%
Under 69.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Texas State -3
TEXA -3
61.6%
MCNE +3
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
No market prices yet.
MCNE
No market prices yet.
Spread Texas State 0
TEXA 0
69.6%
MCNE 0
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
No market prices yet.
MCNE
No market prices yet.
Spread Texas State +3
TEXA +3
77.3%
MCNE -3
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
No market prices yet.
MCNE
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +4.9+4.91st half: +8.0+8.02nd half2nd half: +6.8+6.82nd half: +2.2+2.2
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +4.9+4.91st half: +8.0+8.02nd half2nd half: +6.8+6.82nd half: +2.2+2.2
Texas StateMcNeese State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy
#84
W
36-29
36
29
+7
H12/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H14/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
40-33
40
33
+7
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
18-34
18
34
-16
A21/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H06/03
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#216
W
35-26
35
26
+9
H03/11
NCAA
Howard Payne
#502
W
64-30
64
30
+34
H06/11
NCAA
UTRGV
#211
W
30-28
30
28
+2
A11/11
NCAA
Southern Miss
#227
W
44-37
44
37
+7
H14/11
NCAA
70.9Avg total
37.9Scored
33.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.033.768.7+1.350%-
Last 30 at home (18)37.332.169.4+5.367%-
Last 30 away (12)31.536.267.8-4.825%-
Last 10 (10)37.933.070.9+4.980%-
Last 5 (5)41.231.672.8+9.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (18)32.335.667.9-3.322%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)39.030.969.9+8.192%-
This opponent (McNeese State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
McNeese StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
24-23
24
23
+1
H22/02
NCAA
UTRGV
#137
W
34-22
34
22
+12
H24/02
NCAA
New Orleans
#226
W
39-29
39
29
+10
A28/02
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
40-31
40
31
+9
A03/03
NCAA
UTRGV
#137
W
31-23
31
23
+8
H11/03
NCAA
Stephen F. Austin
#12
W
42-25
42
25
+17
A11/03
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A19/03
NCAA
UAB
#220
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H02/11
NCAA
North Texas
#99
L
32-34
32
34
-2
A05/11
NCAA
CBS Ambassadors
#414
W
63-44
63
44
+19
H10/11
NCAA
68.8Avg total
38.4Scored
30.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.832.069.8+5.867%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.929.670.5+11.286%-
Last 30 away (16)35.234.169.2+1.150%-
Last 10 (10)38.430.468.8+8.080%-
Last 5 (5)43.235.278.4+8.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)29.060.089.0-31.00%-
vs Similar (5)32.433.265.6-0.820%-
vs Weaker (24)39.330.669.9+8.879%-
This opponent (Texas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Texas State wins
1
McNeese State wins
DateGameScore
21/11/23Texas State v McNeese State48-59
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HSouthern Miss85-65
11/11/26AUTRGV72-65
06/11/26HHoward Payne135-66
03/11/26HTexas A&M-CC67-55
06/03/26HSouthern Miss77-81
28/02/26HAppalachian State60-57
21/02/26ALouisiana Lafayette54-67
20/02/26ASouth Alabama90-82 OT
14/02/26HLouisiana Monroe95-84
12/02/26HTroy74-62
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26HCBS Ambassadors135-87
05/11/26ANorth Texas67-77
02/11/26HUAB99-78
19/03/26AVanderbilt68-78
11/03/26AStephen F. Austin76-59
11/03/26HUTRGV84-80 OT
03/03/26ANicholls State75-65
28/02/26ANew Orleans66-63
24/02/26HUTRGV75-68
22/02/26HTexas A&M-CC70-54

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Texas State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game89.895.772.0
Allowed / game62.862.065.0
Point differential+27.0+33.7+7.0
Avg total152.5157.7137.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
McNeese State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game100.3117.067.0
Allowed / game80.782.577.0
Point differential+19.7+34.5-10.0
Avg total181.0199.5144.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas State440100%89.862.8+27.0
2 Old Dominion550100%77.058.4+18.6
3 Appalachian State42250%69.060.2+8.8
4 Southern Miss42250%72.070.8+1.2
5 Arkansas State42250%80.279.5+0.8
6 Coastal Carolina42250%72.573.5-1.0
7 South Alabama52340%74.676.0-1.4
8 Louisiana Lafayette31233%59.060.3-1.3
9 James Madison31233%76.078.7-2.7
10 Georgia State41325%85.877.2+8.5
11 Marshall41325%78.276.0+2.2
12 Georgia Southern41325%77.882.8-5.0
13 Troy41325%66.078.0-12.0
14 Louisiana Monroe61517%75.087.7-12.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southland conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Houston Christian440100%94.265.2+29.0
2 Stephen F. Austin43175%90.861.2+29.5
3 Lamar32167%109.067.3+41.7
4 McNeese State32167%100.380.7+19.7
5 New Orleans32167%81.782.3-0.7
6 Nicholls State42250%76.867.8+9.0
7 UTRGV42250%72.867.8+5.0
8 Texas A&M-CC42250%71.067.2+3.8
9 SE Louisiana31233%64.387.3-23.0
10 Northwestern St.51420%68.079.0-11.0
11 Incarnate Word4040%60.879.2-18.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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