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Texas vs Baylor Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 20:00
Projected 84-73
Projected total 156.7
Scheduled
Position#2
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game100.0
Allowed / game57.0
Texas
USA
Vs
85%
15%
■ TEXA 85%■ BAYL 15%
Pythia win probability
Baylor
USA
Position#6
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game95.3
Allowed / game59.7
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Texas v Baylor
15 Nov 2026
TEXA v BAYL
upcoming
20 Jan 2024
TEXA75
BAYL73
30 Jan 2023
TEXA76
BAYL71
28 Feb 2022
TEXA61
BAYL68
02 Feb 2021
TEXA69
BAYL83
10 Feb 2020
TEXA45
BAYL52
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Texas hosts Baylor on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Texas the clear favourite, rating them 85% to win because they have swept their first three games, averaging 100.0 points per game while holding opponents to 57.0, and sit second in the league. Baylor, also undefeated at 3-0, averages 95.3 points and allows 59.7, placing sixth, but their offensive output is slightly lower and their defensive margin is narrower. Texas has won all three home games, 100.0 points per game, 57.0 allowed, and a 4-1 record in the last five, including a 109-59 win over Chicago State, while Baylor's last five include a 109-53 victory over Arkansas-Pine Bluff. In head-to-head history Baylor leads 7-2, most recently beating Texas 93-85 on 4 March 2024. Pythia projects an 84-73 score, with a total of 156.7 points, and gives Texas a 72% chance to cover the -5.5 line and a 40% chance of the over on the 160.5 line, with a 3% chance of overtime. The game will hinge on whether Texas can sustain its high-scoring, low-allowing rhythm against Baylor's steady offence.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Texas win
84.8%fair 1.18
Best odds1.45
Implied65.7%
Edge+19.1pp
Baylor win
15.2%fair 6.59
Best odds2.82
Implied34.3%
Edge-19.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TexasUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas
#36
L
85-105
85
105
-20
A05/03
NCAA
Oklahoma
#154
L
85-88 OT
85
88
-3
H08/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
66-76
66
76
-10
H11/03
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
68-66
68
66
+2
A18/03
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
79-71
79
71
+8
A19/03
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
W
74-68
74
68
+6
A21/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
77-79
77
79
-2
A26/03
NCAA
Chicago State
#267
W
109-59
109
59
+50
H03/11
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#330
W
98-50
98
50
+48
H06/11
NCAA
Grambling St.
#248
W
93-62
93
62
+31
H10/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-56
51-49
40-36
37-41
30-41
36-35
30-29
38-37
46-37
33-34
35-33
39-35
35-39
42-40
56-30
53-29
54-20
44-30
55-27
38-35
155.8Avg total
83.4Scored
72.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)100.057.0157.0+43.0100%
Season at home (3)100.057.0157.0+43.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)83.472.4155.8+11.060%
Last 5 (5)90.263.6153.8+26.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)73.073.2146.2-0.240%
vs Similar (15)80.580.0160.5+0.553%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)91.168.4159.5+22.780%
This opponent (Baylor) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BaylorUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kansas State
#292
L
74-90
74
90
-16
A18/02
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
W
73-68
73
68
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
80-87
80
87
-7
H25/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
W
87-86
87
86
+1
A01/03
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
64-77
64
77
-13
A05/03
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
101-75
101
75
+26
H07/03
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
L
79-83
79
83
-4
A10/03
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#338
W
87-65
87
65
+22
H03/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#472
W
109-53
109
53
+56
H06/11
NCAA
Yale
#322
W
90-61
90
61
+29
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-41
40-49
32-40
41-28
41-34
39-53
56-42
31-44
35-35
29-42
53-33
48-42
35-44
44-39
50-32
37-33
58-13
51-40
41-30
49-31
158.9Avg total
84.4Scored
74.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)95.359.7155.0+35.7100%
Season at home (3)95.359.7155.0+35.7100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)84.474.5158.9+9.960%
Last 5 (5)93.267.4160.6+25.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)66.577.5144.0-11.00%
vs Similar (11)80.778.0158.7+2.745%
vs Weaker (13)93.271.1164.2+22.177%
This opponent (Texas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 155.5
Over 155.5
52.5%
@ 1.57-8.6pp
Under 155.5
47.5%
@ 2.55+8.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.25
Over/Under 160.5 · main line
Over 160.5
40.4%
@ 2.02-9.2pp
Under 160.5
59.6%
@ 1.90+9.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Be
1.94
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Be
1.79
Over/Under 165.5
Over 165.5
29.2%
@ 2.65-6.5pp
Under 165.5
70.8%
@ 1.47+6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
Bet365
2.55
Under
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.42

📊 3. Team Totals

Texas total 78.5
Over 78.5
71.8%
@ 1.44+6.8pp
Under 78.5
28.2%
@ 2.80-6.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.38
Under
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.45
Texas total 82.5 · main line
Over 82.5
56.9%
@ 1.91+6.9pp
Under 82.5
43.1%
@ 1.85-6.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.80
Texas total 86.5
Over 86.5
41.0%
@ 2.65+5.2pp
Under 86.5
59.0%
@ 1.50-5.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.37
Baylor total 73.5
Over 73.5
45.5%
@ 1.42-18.3pp
Under 73.5
54.5%
@ 2.50+18.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.50
Baylor total 77.5 · main line
Over 77.5
30.7%
@ 1.91-18.5pp
Under 77.5
69.3%
@ 1.85+18.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.82
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Baylor total 81.5
Over 81.5
no forecast
@ 2.65
Under 81.5
no forecast
@ 1.38
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
Under
Betano
1.38

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Texas -8
TEXA -8
63.7%
@ 2.22+22.1pp
BAYL +8
36.3%
@ 1.58-22.1pp
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Bet365
2.22
BAYL
Bet365
1.58
Spread Texas -5 · main line
TEXA -5
74.0%
@ 1.86+23.0pp
BAYL +5
26.0%
@ 1.96-23.0pp
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.81
BAYL
Bet365
1.96
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread Texas -2
TEXA -2
82.6%
@ 1.54+21.7pp
BAYL +2
17.4%
@ 2.40-21.7pp
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Bet365
1.54
BAYL
Bet365
2.40

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +6.7+6.71st half: +9.1+9.12nd half2nd half: +4.6+4.62nd half: +0.8+0.8
-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +6.7+6.71st half: +9.1+9.12nd half2nd half: +4.6+4.62nd half: +0.8+0.8
TexasBaylor
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
TexasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas
#36
L
34-56
34
56
-22
A05/03
NCAA
Oklahoma
#154
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H08/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
30-41
30
41
-11
H11/03
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
30-29
30
29
+1
A18/03
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A19/03
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A21/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A26/03
NCAA
Chicago State
#267
W
56-30
56
30
+26
H03/11
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#330
W
54-20
54
20
+34
H06/11
NCAA
Grambling St.
#248
W
55-27
55
27
+28
H10/11
NCAA
76.3Avg total
41.5Scored
34.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76
Last 30 (30)38.935.574.4+3.460%40%
Last 30 at home (16)41.632.674.1+9.075%31%
Last 30 away (14)35.938.874.6-2.943%50%
Last 10 (10)41.534.876.3+6.770%40%
Last 5 (5)47.029.876.8+17.280%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)37.037.674.6-0.660%40%
vs Similar (15)36.337.573.9-1.247%47%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)43.731.375.0+12.480%30%
This opponent (Baylor) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BaylorLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kansas State
#292
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A18/02
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
L
32-40
32
40
-8
H21/02
NCAA
Arizona
#7
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H25/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
W
56-42
56
42
+14
A01/03
NCAA
Houston
#18
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A05/03
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
53-33
53
33
+20
H07/03
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A10/03
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#338
W
50-32
50
32
+18
H03/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#472
W
58-13
58
13
+45
H06/11
NCAA
Yale
#322
W
41-30
41
30
+11
H11/11
NCAA
77.9Avg total
43.5Scored
34.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76
Last 30 (30)41.135.076.0+6.150%40%
Last 30 at home (18)43.433.476.8+10.161%44%
Last 30 away (12)37.537.374.8+0.233%33%
Last 10 (10)43.534.477.9+9.160%40%
Last 5 (5)47.430.477.8+17.080%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)32.233.065.2-0.817%0%
vs Similar (11)38.537.475.9+1.245%45%
vs Weaker (13)47.333.881.2+13.569%54%
This opponent (Texas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
TEXA win
no forecast
@ 1.52
BAYL win
no forecast
@ 2.55
1st half Spread Texas -3 · main line
TEXA -3
no forecast
@ 1.87
BAYL +3
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 76 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
Texas 1st half total 39 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
Baylor 1st half total 36.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
1st half Over/Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.07
Under
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Texas -4.5
TEXA -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
BAYL +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Texas -1.5
TEXA -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
BAYL +1.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under
no forecast
@ 2.52
1st half Over/Under 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.37
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Texas -5.5
TEXA -5.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
BAYL +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Over/Under 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.65
Under
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread Texas -6.5
TEXA -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
BAYL +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread Texas -7.5
TEXA -7.5
no forecast
@ 2.90
BAYL +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.35
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
TEXA
no forecast
@ 1.57
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
BAYL
no forecast
@ 2.62

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
TEXA win + total 160.5
🔒 Pro
BAYL win + total 160.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: TEXA leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: BAYL leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Texas -670.7%1.97
Bet365
1.99
Marathon Bet
1.97
SBO
1.96		--+23.5pp
Texas (regulation)82.9%1.47
Marathon Bet
1.47
Betano
1.47		---+21.7pp
Baylor under 7871.7%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83		----+21.1pp
Texas win84.8%1.43
1xBet
1.45
Bet365
1.45
Marathon Bet
1.44
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.42		+19.1pp
Texas over 77.575.1%1.36
Betano
1.36		----+8.6pp
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■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 54 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Texas wins
7
Baylor wins
DateGameScore
05/03/24Baylor v Texas93-85
20/01/24Texas v Baylor75-73
25/02/23Baylor v Texas81-72
31/01/23Texas v Baylor76-71
01/03/22Texas v Baylor61-68
12/02/22Baylor v Texas80-63
03/02/21Texas v Baylor69-83
11/02/20Texas v Baylor45-52
05/01/20Baylor v Texas59-44
Texaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26HGrambling St.93-62
06/11/26HGardner Webb98-50
03/11/26HChicago State109-59
26/03/26APurdue77-79
21/03/26AGonzaga74-68
19/03/26ABrigham Young79-71
18/03/26ANC State68-66
11/03/26HOle Miss66-76
08/03/26HOklahoma85-88 OT
05/03/26AArkansas85-105
Baylorlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HYale90-61
06/11/26HArkansas-Pine Bluff109-53
03/11/26HNorthwestern St.87-65
10/03/26AArizona State79-83
07/03/26HUtah Utes101-75
05/03/26AHouston64-77
01/03/26AUCF Knights87-86
25/02/26HArizona80-87
21/02/26HArizona State73-68
18/02/26AKansas State74-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Texas
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game100.0100.0-
Allowed / game57.057.0-
Point differential+43.0+43.0-
Avg total157.0157.0-
Over 160.533%33%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Baylor
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game95.395.3-
Allowed / game59.759.7-
Point differential+35.7+35.7-
Avg total155.0155.0-
Over 160.533%33%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas330100%100.057.0+43.0
2 Ole Miss330100%94.056.3+37.7
3 Texas A&M440100%99.267.2+32.0
4 LSU440100%90.859.5+31.2
5 Vanderbilt440100%90.260.2+30.0
6 South Carolina440100%78.856.5+22.2
7 Alabama440100%97.076.0+21.0
8 Florida440100%82.262.5+19.8
9 Tennessee330100%81.061.3+19.7
10 Georgia440100%81.870.2+11.5
11 Mississippi St.43175%87.267.5+19.8
12 Arkansas43175%83.267.8+15.5
13 Oklahoma43175%75.863.8+12.0
14 Kentucky43175%80.275.8+4.5
15 Missouri32167%97.066.0+31.0
16 Auburn32167%78.764.0+14.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big 12 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Baylor330100%95.359.7+35.7
2 West Virginia330100%85.753.3+32.3
3 Kansas330100%91.059.7+31.3
4 TCU440100%95.067.2+27.8
5 Texas Tech440100%81.053.8+27.2
6 Arizona State440100%85.563.2+22.2
7 Brigham Young440100%96.575.8+20.8
8 Utah Utes330100%72.761.3+11.3
9 UCF Knights440100%85.877.2+8.5
10 Cincinnati43175%79.063.0+16.0
11 Arizona43175%87.274.0+13.2
12 Houston32167%84.762.3+22.3
13 Oklahoma State32167%92.772.0+20.7
14 Iowa State32167%81.061.3+19.7
15 Kansas State32167%83.376.0+7.3
16 Colorado42250%74.069.5+4.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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