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Tofas vs Denizli Basket Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 22 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 16:00
Scheduled
Position#11
Record2-3
FormWWLLW
Points / game79.8
Allowed / game84.0
vs
Position#13
Record1-4
FormLLWLL
Points / game80.8
Allowed / game85.8
TurkeyBasketbol Süper LigiRound 17· Tofas Spor Salonu
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Tofas v Denizli Basket
22 Jan 2027
TOF v DEN
upcoming
16 Jan 2016
TOF89
DEN85
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tofas win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Denizli Basket win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TofasTurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bordo Bandirma
#14
W
90-89
90
89
+1
H25/09
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Chemnitz
#5
W
82-69
82
69
+13
H29/09
Eurocup
Denizli Basket
#13
L
87-101
87
101
-14
A03/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
JL Bourg
#25
W
89-82
89
82
+7
A06/10
Eurocup
Esenler Erokspor
#4
L
79-87
79
87
-8
H10/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Buducnost
#18
W
90-85
90
85
+5
H14/10
Eurocup
Korfez Basket
#9
W
71-69
71
69
+2
A17/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Basket Napoli
#3
L
101-105 OT
101
105
-4
A21/10
Eurocup
Petkim Spor
#7
L
72-74
72
74
-2
H25/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Slask Wroclaw
#29
W
90-74
90
74
+16
A28/10
Eurocup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-16
21-31
27-21
15-21
22-15
24-15
14-23
22-16
22-30
14-20
25-25
26-26
18-21
31-19
18-24
22-18
17-29
17-19
25-11
20-28
22-25
30-19
19-20
19-21
19-20
7-15
15-19
30-15
20-29
22-24
24-20
27-20
21-14
19-24
19-14
13-22
22-24
33-14
15-22
20-14
168.6Avg total
85.1Scored
83.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)79.884.0163.8-4.240%
Season at home (3)80.383.3163.7-3.033%
Season away (2)79.085.0164.0-6.050%
Last 10 (10)85.183.5168.6+1.660%
Last 5 (5)84.881.4166.2+3.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)79.987.6167.5-7.70%
vs Similar ◀ (11)84.489.7174.1-5.427%
vs Weaker (9)90.984.6175.4+6.389%
This opponent (Denizli Basket) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denizli BasketTurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vechta
#18
L
98-101
98
101
-3
A15/09
Champions League
Petkim Spor
#7
L
81-85
81
85
-4
A26/09
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Tofas
#11
W
101-87
101
87
+14
H03/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
BC Prievidza
#18
W
83-69
83
69
+14
H06/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Anadolu Efes
#3
L
76-85
76
85
-9
A11/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Benfica
#9
L
91-96
91
96
-5
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Trabzonspor
#6
L
70-75
70
75
-5
H18/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Geneva Lions
#24
W
80-76
80
76
+4
A21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Turk Telekom
#2
L
76-97
76
97
-21
A24/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Absheron Lions
#42
L
86-94 OT
86
94
-8
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-24
17-19
28-34
33-24
24-25
21-22
21-23
15-15
30-22
20-14
25-25
26-26
30-21
19-20
16-16
18-12
16-26
18-24
27-22
15-13
23-28
22-22
17-27
29-19
16-17
12-23
25-16
17-19
19-24
23-15
15-17
23-20
13-29
27-18
17-28
19-22
18-14
24-19
12-27
26-20
170.7Avg total
84.2Scored
86.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)80.885.8166.6-5.020%
Season at home (2)85.581.0166.5+4.550%
Season away (3)77.789.0166.7-11.30%
Last 10 (10)84.286.5170.7-2.330%
Last 5 (5)80.687.6168.2-7.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)77.585.0162.5-7.512%
vs Similar ◀ (9)73.273.8147.0-0.667%
vs Weaker (12)77.672.8150.3+4.867%
This opponent (Tofas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q1: -2.1-2.1Q2Q2: +1.8+1.8Q2: +0.7+0.7Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: +3.1+3.1
TofasDenizli Basket
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
TofasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bordo Bandirma
#14
W
48-47
48
47
+1
H25/09
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Chemnitz
#5
W
46-30
46
30
+16
H29/09
Eurocup
Denizli Basket
#13
L
36-50
36
50
-14
A03/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
JL Bourg
#25
W
49-40
49
40
+9
A06/10
Eurocup
Esenler Erokspor
#4
L
34-48
34
48
-14
H10/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Buducnost
#18
W
52-44
52
44
+8
H14/10
Eurocup
Korfez Basket
#9
L
26-35
26
35
-9
A17/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Basket Napoli
#3
L
42-53
42
53
-11
A21/10
Eurocup
Petkim Spor
#7
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H25/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Slask Wroclaw
#29
W
55-38
55
38
+17
A28/10
Eurocup
85.1Avg total
42.8Scored
42.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.644.386.9-1.747%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.845.387.1-3.644%-
Last 30 away (14)43.643.186.8+0.550%-
Last 10 (10)42.842.385.1+0.560%-
Last 5 (5)43.041.684.6+1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)41.142.883.9-1.750%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)39.846.686.5-6.818%-
vs Weaker (9)47.843.190.9+4.778%-
This opponent (Denizli Basket) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denizli BasketLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vechta
#18
L
37-43
37
43
-6
A15/09
Champions League
Petkim Spor
#7
L
45-47
45
47
-2
A26/09
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Tofas
#11
W
50-36
50
36
+14
H03/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
BC Prievidza
#18
W
49-41
49
41
+8
H06/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Anadolu Efes
#3
L
34-50
34
50
-16
A11/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Benfica
#9
L
45-50
45
50
-5
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Trabzonspor
#6
L
28-40
28
40
-12
H18/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Geneva Lions
#24
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Turk Telekom
#2
L
40-47
40
47
-7
A24/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Absheron Lions
#42
W
42-33
42
33
+9
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
83.8Avg total
41.2Scored
42.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.338.777.0-0.540%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.335.273.5+3.157%-
Last 30 away (16)38.241.880.1-3.625%-
Last 10 (10)41.242.683.8-1.440%-
Last 5 (5)39.441.881.2-2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)39.946.686.5-6.812%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)36.135.471.6+0.744%-
vs Weaker (12)38.935.674.5+3.358%-
This opponent (Tofas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Tofastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tofas: 81.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.6 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.7 points a game
48%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.222.8
59.7%
54.9%45.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.56.5
26.5%
35.7%19.5
🏀 Free throws20.816.1
77.4%
75.4%16.1
They take 62.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denizli Baskettheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denizli Basket: 84.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.7 points a game
48%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.120.4
50.9%
54.9%40.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.58.8
37.4%
35.7%26.4
🏀 Free throws21.117.0
80.6%
75.4%17.0
They take 63.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Tofas
WLLWWLWLWW
Denizli Basket
LLWLLLWWLL
#11
League position
#13
-0.3
Net rating
-1.2
92.3
Offensive rating
97.8
92.6
Defensive rating
98.9
51.9%
Effective FG%
52.8%
51.6%
Opp. effective FG%
52.8%
17.4%
Turnover %
14.7%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.33
26.5%
3-point %
37.4%
58.0%
Assist %
56.5%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence92.3 · 97.8Defence92.6 · 98.9Shooting51.9% · 52.8%3-point %26.5% · 37.4%Ball care17.4% · 14.7%Free throws0.33 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)60% · 30%
■ Tofas   ■ Denizli Basket
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Tofas wins
1
Denizli Basket wins
DateGameScore
03/10/26Denizli Basket v Tofas101-87
07/05/16Denizli Basket v Tofas60-83
16/01/16Tofas v Denizli Basket89-85
Tofaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/10/26ASlask Wroclaw90-74
25/10/26HPetkim Spor72-74
21/10/26ABasket Napoli101-105 OT
17/10/26AKorfez Basket71-69
14/10/26HBuducnost90-85
10/10/26HEsenler Erokspor79-87
06/10/26AJL Bourg89-82
03/10/26ADenizli Basket87-101
29/09/26HChemnitz82-69
25/09/26HBordo Bandirma90-89
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/10/26AAbsheron Lions86-94 OT
24/10/26ATurk Telekom76-97
21/10/26AGeneva Lions80-76
18/10/26HTrabzonspor70-75
14/10/26ABenfica91-96
11/10/26AAnadolu Efes76-85
06/10/26HBC Prievidza83-69
03/10/26HTofas101-87
26/09/26APetkim Spor81-85
15/09/26AVechta98-101

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tofas
Basketbol Süper Ligi 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL40%
HomeWLL33%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %40%33%50%
Points / game79.880.379.0
Allowed / game84.083.385.0
Point differential-4.2-3.0-6.0
Avg total163.8163.7164.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Denizli Basket
Basketbol Süper Ligi 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL20%
HomeWL50%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %20%50%0%
Points / game80.885.577.7
Allowed / game85.881.089.0
Point differential-5.0+4.5-11.3
Avg total166.6166.5166.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bahcesehir Kol.550100%92.883.4+9.4
2 Turk Telekom54180%80.471.8+8.6
3 Anadolu Efes54180%85.677.2+8.4
4 Esenler Erokspor54180%85.682.8+2.8
5 Fenerbahce53260%88.484.2+4.2
6 Trabzonspor53260%82.281.8+0.4
7 Petkim Spor53260%83.683.4+0.2
8 Galatasaray52340%88.680.2+8.4
9 Korfez Basket52340%81.883.6-1.8
10 Karsiyaka52340%79.882.4-2.6
11 Tofas52340%79.884.0-4.2
12 Besiktas52340%82.688.8-6.2
13 Denizli Basket51420%80.885.8-5.0
14 Bordo Bandirma51420%79.085.2-6.2
15 Bursaspor51420%76.484.2-7.8
16 Cayirova51420%80.489.0-8.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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