PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Toledo hosts Robert Morris on 19 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the model rates Toledo the clear favourite, assigning it an 83% chance to win largely because of its 2-3 overall record and 73.0 points per game compared with Robert Morris's 0-3 record and 52.7 points per game. Toledo has scored 73.0 and allowed 77.2 per game across all five games, with a 0-1 record at home where it averaged 68.0 points and allowed 76.0, and has won two of its last five. Its recent results include a 85-72 win over Detroit away, an 80-88 loss to CBC Valladolid at home, and a 68-76 defeat to Wright State at home. Robert Morris has struggled, losing all three of its road games, averaging 52.7 points and conceding 80.3, and has lost four of its last five, with losses to Arkansas, Illinois (Chi.) and Nevada all away. The teams have met twice before, with Robert Morris winning both times, most recently 75-70 on 13 December 2025. Pythia projects a 79-68 score, a 146.7 total, and gives Toledo an 83% win probability, Robert Morris 17%, and a 3% chance of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 73.0 | 77.2 | 150.2 | -4.2 | 40% |
| Season at home (1) | 68.0 | 76.0 | 144.0 | -8.0 | 0% |
| Season away (4) | 74.2 | 77.5 | 151.8 | -3.2 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 79.6 | 80.9 | 160.5 | -1.3 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 78.2 | 79.4 | 157.6 | -1.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 72.3 | 80.2 | 152.6 | -7.9 | 22% |
| vs Similar (12) | 81.8 | 76.1 | 157.8 | +5.7 | 67% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (9) | 77.6 | 71.3 | 148.9 | +6.2 | 67% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 52.7 | 80.3 | 133.0 | -27.7 | 0% |
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away (3) | 52.7 | 80.3 | 133.0 | -27.7 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 70.5 | 69.5 | 140.0 | +1.0 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 58.0 | 72.8 | 130.8 | -14.8 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 52.7 | 80.3 | 133.0 | -27.7 | 0% |
| vs Similar (9) | 78.3 | 71.3 | 149.7 | +7.0 | 89% |
| vs Weaker (18) | 77.5 | 72.6 | 150.1 | +4.9 | 61% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (29) | 38.0 | 36.3 | 74.3 | +1.7 | 52% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 40.1 | 35.9 | 76.1 | +4.2 | 73% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 35.7 | 36.7 | 72.4 | -1.0 | 29% | - |
| Last 10 (9) | 38.2 | 41.1 | 79.3 | -2.9 | 33% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.6 | 41.2 | 74.8 | -7.6 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 34.8 | 38.2 | 73.0 | -3.4 | 22% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 40.0 | 36.7 | 76.7 | +3.3 | 75% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (8) | 38.6 | 33.6 | 72.2 | +5.0 | 50% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.6 | 34.2 | 70.7 | +2.4 | 63% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 36.6 | 33.2 | 69.9 | +3.4 | 56% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 36.5 | 35.2 | 71.7 | +1.3 | 71% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.1 | 33.3 | 67.4 | +0.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 30.0 | 33.2 | 63.2 | -3.2 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 28.7 | 36.7 | 65.3 | -8.0 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 37.3 | 32.6 | 69.9 | +4.8 | 67% | - |
| vs Weaker (18) | 37.5 | 34.6 | 72.1 | +2.9 | 67% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 13/12/25 | Robert Morris v Toledo | 75-70 |
| 17/03/12 | Toledo v Robert Morris | 51-69 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Detroit | 85-72 |
| 14/11/26 | H | CBC Valladolid | 80-88 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Wright State | 68-76 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Spanish Basketball Academy | 77-85 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Marshall | 81-76 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Michigan State | 61-91 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Arkansas State | 70-71 |
| 01/11/26 | H | Jaen Paraiso | 93-81 |
| 25/10/26 | A | Moron | 81-90 |
| 18/10/26 | H | Algeciras | 100-79 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | Arkansas | 53-76 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Illinois (Chi.) | 56-79 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Nevada | 49-86 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Detroit | 64-70 |
| 05/03/26 | H | Youngstown State | 68-53 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Cleveland State | 83-64 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Detroit | 73-62 |
| 22/02/26 | A | Wright State | 81-68 |
| 15/02/26 | H | Oakland | 93-69 |
| 13/02/26 | A | Cleveland State | 85-68 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWLW | 40% |
| Home | L | 0% |
| Away | LLWW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Win % | 40% | 0% | 50% |
| Points / game | 73.0 | 68.0 | 74.2 |
| Allowed / game | 77.2 | 76.0 | 77.5 |
| Point differential | -4.2 | -8.0 | -3.2 |
| Avg total | 150.2 | 144.0 | 151.8 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 20% | 0% | 25% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | - | 50% (2) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLL | 0% |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | - | 3 |
| Win % | 0% | - | 0% |
| Points / game | 52.7 | - | 52.7 |
| Allowed / game | 80.3 | - | 80.3 |
| Point differential | -27.7 | - | -27.7 |
| Avg total | 133.0 | - | 133.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | - | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | - | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Akron | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 62.7 | +21.3 |
| 2 |  Central Michigan | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.8 | 65.8 | +18.0 |
| 3 |  Bowling Green | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 76.0 | +10.3 |
| 4 |  Miami (Ohio) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 76.0 | +8.0 |
| 5 |  Western Michigan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.0 | 60.8 | +18.2 |
| 6 |  Eastern Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 63.3 | +14.0 |
| 7 |  UMass | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 66.0 | 64.3 | +1.7 |
| 8 |  Ohio | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.0 | 75.7 | +0.3 |
| 9 |  Northern Illinois | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 79.4 | 73.2 | +6.2 |
| 10 | Toledo | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 73.0 | 77.2 | -4.2 |
| 11 |  Kent State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.3 | 75.3 | +8.0 |
| 12 |  Buffalo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 79.0 | -1.3 |
| 13 |  Ball State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 68.8 | 72.5 | -3.8 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Wright State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 91.2 | 69.0 | +22.2 |
| 2 |  Wisc. Green Bay | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 75.2 | 66.8 | +8.4 |
| 3 |  Youngstown State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 74.0 | 80.5 | -6.5 |
| 4 |  Cleveland State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 75.2 | 88.0 | -12.8 |
| 5 |  Wisc. Milwaukee | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 76.0 | 77.4 | -1.4 |
| 6 |  Northern Kentucky | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 74.6 | 93.4 | -18.8 |
| 7 |  IPFW | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 74.7 | +3.0 |
| 8 |  Oakland | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 70.8 | 91.8 | -21.0 |
| 9 | Robert Morris | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 52.7 | 80.3 | -27.7 |
| 10 |  Detroit | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 53.0 | 92.7 | -39.7 |
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