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Trieste vs Reggiana Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Projected 88-84
Projected total 172.9
Scheduled
Position#6
Record4-3
FormLWWWW
Points / game94.4
Allowed / game88.4
Vs
64%
36%
■ TRI 64%■ REG 36%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
6.8/10
Above normal
5.0/10
Around normal
Position#13
Record2-5
FormLWLLL
Points / game81.7
Allowed / game83.7
ItalyLega ARound 9· PalaTrieste
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Trieste v Reggiana
21 Nov 2026
TRI v REG
upcoming
13 Dec 2025
TRI92
REG82
20 Oct 2024
TRI85
REG97
18 Mar 2023
TRI75
REG80
16 Jan 2022
TRI83
REG85
06 Jan 2021
TRI78
REG69
11 Apr 2020
TRI v REG
upcoming
14 Apr 2019
TRI104
REG88
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Trieste host Reggiana in the Lega Basket Serie A. Pythia makes Trieste the favourite at 64% and projects 88-84, about 173 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. Trieste are 4-3 this season (94.4 scored, 88.4 allowed a game), form LWWWW; Reggiana are 2-5 this season (81.7 scored, 83.7 allowed a game), form LWLLL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Trieste win
63.9%fair 1.57
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Reggiana win
36.1%fair 2.77
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TriesteItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTrieste
Date
Competition
Brescia
#4
L
80-84
80
84
-4
73avg 75
H21/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
W
83-77
83
77
+6
79avg 75
H23/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
75-90
75
90
-15
67avg 75
A25/05
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#3
L
79-83
79
83
-4
64avg 75
A27/09
Lega A
Venezia
#9
L
82-87
82
87
-5
57avg 75
H04/10
Lega A
Varese
#8
L
84-85
84
85
-1
75avg 75
A10/10
Lega A
Cantu
#16
W
92-72
92
72
+20
88avg 75
H18/10
Lega A
Verona
#10
W
108-99
108
99
+9
101avg 75
H25/10
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
W
100-93
100
93
+7
no box
A02/11
Lega A
BC Roma
#12
W
116-100
116
100
+16
no box
H08/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-22
21-22
15-17
26-23
17-16
18-22
28-18
20-21
16-27
23-20
12-20
24-23
19-17
22-21
23-19
15-26
15-21
27-18
20-20
20-28
15-19
23-21
20-21
26-24
20-18
24-20
23-15
25-19
23-27
28-26
28-24
29-22
25-24
21-31
31-17
23-21
28-32
30-24
34-26
24-18
176.9Avg total
89.9Scored
87.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)94.488.4182.9+6.057%
Season at home (4)99.589.5189.0+10.075%
Season away (3)87.787.0174.7+0.733%
Last 10 (10)89.987.0176.9+2.950%
Last 5 (5)100.089.8189.8+10.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)81.788.7170.3-7.027%
vs Similar (10)86.284.4170.6+1.850%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)96.488.6185.0+7.860%
This opponent (Reggiana) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ReggianaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormReggiana
Date
Competition
Trento
#11
L
78-83
78
83
-5
68avg 74
H26/09
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#2
L
93-99
93
99
-6
83avg 74
A03/10
Lega A
Pardubice
#49
W
82-65
82
65
+17
82avg 74
H06/10
Champions League
Tortona
#14
W
93-86
93
86
+7
91avg 74
H11/10
Lega A
Verona
#10
L
81-94
81
94
-13
69avg 74
A18/10
Lega A
Juventus
#19
L
75-76
75
76
-1
75avg 74
H21/10
Champions League
Cantu
#16
W
81-60
81
60
+21
74avg 74
H25/10
Lega A
Treviso
#5
L
68-81
68
81
-13
57avg 74
A31/10
Lega A
Unicaja
#1
L
94-99
94
99
-5
no box
A03/11
Champions League
Venezia
#9
L
78-83
78
83
-5
no box
H07/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-26
25-20
18-16
17-21
34-23
15-27
28-26
16-23
15-15
24-14
25-22
18-14
25-25
22-23
22-19
24-19
21-29
25-28
20-16
15-21
25-22
25-25
20-14
5-15
23-20
15-19
18-14
25-7
15-29
24-18
22-20
7-14
25-16
18-27
21-32
30-24
26-18
20-21
18-20
14-24
164.9Avg total
82.3Scored
82.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)81.783.7165.4-2.029%
Season at home (4)82.578.0160.5+4.550%
Season away (3)80.791.3172.0-10.70%
Last 10 (10)82.382.6164.9-0.330%
Last 5 (5)79.279.8159.0-0.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)78.384.8163.1-6.510%
vs Similar (9)84.383.0167.3+1.356%
vs Weaker (11)84.974.9159.8+10.064%
This opponent (Trieste) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%1%1301%1352%1404%1456%1508%15510%16011%16512%17011%17510%1808%1856%1904%1952%2001%2051%2100%2150%220
1%1302%1406%15010%16012%17010%1806%1902%2001%2100%220
Pythia expects about 173 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 170-174 (12%).
Over/Under 168
Over 168
60.8%
Under 168
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 173
Over 173
48.8%
Under 173
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 178
Over 178
36.9%
Under 178
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Trieste total 84.5
Over 84.5
64.5%
Under 84.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trieste total 88.5
Over 88.5
49.8%
Under 88.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trieste total 92.5
Over 92.5
35.1%
Under 92.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reggiana total 80.5
Over 80.5
64.1%
Under 80.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reggiana total 84.5
Over 84.5
48.9%
Under 84.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reggiana total 88.5
Over 88.5
34.1%
Under 88.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

3%5%8%10%0%-301%-271%-241%-212%-183%-155%-126%-98%-69%-36%+010%+310%+68%+98%+127%+155%+183%+212%+242%+271%+301%+33
1%-271%-213%-156%-99%-310%+38%+97%+153%+212%+271%+33
Margin from Trieste's side (positive = Trieste win). Pythia's expected margin is +4.1; Trieste win by 1+ in 56% of simulations.
Spread Trieste -3
TRI -3
55.5%
REG +3
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
TRI
No market prices yet.
REG
No market prices yet.
Spread Trieste 0
TRI 0
63.9%
REG 0
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
TRI
No market prices yet.
REG
No market prices yet.
Spread Trieste +3
TRI +3
72.1%
REG -3
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
TRI
No market prices yet.
REG
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -2.7-2.7Q1: +0.4+0.4Q2Q2: +1.2+1.2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: -1.1-1.1
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -2.7-2.7Q1: +0.4+0.4Q2Q2: +1.2+1.2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: -1.1-1.1
TriesteReggiana
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
TriesteLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brescia
#4
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H21/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H23/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A25/05
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#3
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A27/09
Lega A
Venezia
#9
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H04/10
Lega A
Varese
#8
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A10/10
Lega A
Cantu
#16
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H18/10
Lega A
Verona
#10
L
51-53
51
53
-2
H25/10
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
46-55
46
55
-9
A02/11
Lega A
BC Roma
#12
W
58-56
58
56
+2
H08/11
Lega A
88.1Avg total
43.3Scored
44.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.045.389.3-1.243%-
Last 30 at home (16)44.645.089.6-0.444%-
Last 30 away (14)43.445.689.0-2.143%-
Last 10 (10)43.344.888.1-1.540%-
Last 5 (5)47.448.495.8-1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)41.945.987.8-4.127%-
vs Similar (10)46.044.390.3+1.760%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)46.645.291.8+1.460%-
This opponent (Reggiana) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ReggianaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trento
#11
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H26/09
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#2
L
49-50
49
50
-1
A03/10
Lega A
Pardubice
#49
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H06/10
Champions League
Tortona
#14
L
47-48
47
48
-1
H11/10
Lega A
Verona
#10
L
46-57
46
57
-11
A18/10
Lega A
Juventus
#19
W
50-47
50
47
+3
H21/10
Champions League
Cantu
#16
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H25/10
Lega A
Treviso
#5
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A31/10
Lega A
Unicaja
#1
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A03/11
Champions League
Venezia
#9
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H07/11
Lega A
88.5Avg total
44.0Scored
44.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.341.183.4+1.247%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.038.983.9+6.164%-
Last 30 away (16)40.043.083.0-3.031%-
Last 10 (10)44.044.588.5-0.530%-
Last 5 (5)43.243.086.2+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)39.043.382.3-4.320%-
vs Similar (9)45.242.988.1+2.356%-
vs Weaker (11)43.037.680.6+5.464%-
This opponent (Trieste) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Triestetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Trieste: 85.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.418.3
54.8%
54.3%36.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.210.9
34.9%
34.3%32.7
🏀 Free throws21.816.4
75.2%
74.6%16.4
They take 64.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Reggianatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Reggiana: 78.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.518.1
51.0%
54.3%36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.79.7
32.7%
34.3%29.1
🏀 Free throws19.713.6
69.0%
74.6%13.6
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Trieste
WWWWLLLLWL
Reggiana
LLLWLLWWLL
#6
League position
#13
+0.2
Net rating
-1.8
100.8
Offensive rating
90.0
100.6
Defensive rating
91.9
53.6%
Effective FG%
50.1%
53.6%
Opp. effective FG%
49.4%
12.9%
Turnover %
15.1%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.30
34.9%
3-point %
32.7%
56.5%
Assist %
67.3%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence100.8 · 90.0Defence100.6 · 91.9Shooting53.6% · 50.1%3-point %34.9% · 32.7%Ball care12.9% · 15.1%Free throws0.34 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)50% · 30%
■ Trieste   ■ Reggiana
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Trieste wins
4
Reggiana wins
DateGameScore
07/03/26Reggiana v Trieste97-61
13/12/25Trieste v Reggiana92-82 OT
18/01/25Reggiana v Trieste81-96
20/10/24Trieste v Reggiana85-97
18/03/23Trieste v Reggiana75-80
04/12/22Reggiana v Trieste79-84
10/04/22Reggiana v Trieste103-109 OT
16/01/22Trieste v Reggiana83-85 OT
13/03/21Reggiana v Trieste70-96
06/01/21Trieste v Reggiana78-69
Triestelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HBC Roma116-100
02/11/26AVirtus Bologna100-93
25/10/26HVerona108-99
18/10/26HCantu92-72
10/10/26AVarese84-85
04/10/26HVenezia82-87
27/09/26AOlimpia Milano79-83
25/05/26ABrescia75-90
23/05/26HBrescia83-77
21/05/26HBrescia80-84
Reggianalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HVenezia78-83
03/11/26AUnicaja94-99
31/10/26ATreviso68-81
25/10/26HCantu81-60
21/10/26HJuventus75-76
18/10/26AVerona81-94
11/10/26HTortona93-86
06/10/26HPardubice82-65
03/10/26ABasket Napoli93-99
26/09/26HTrento78-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Trieste
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW57%
HomeLWWW75%
AwayLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %57%75%33%
Points / game94.499.587.7
Allowed / game88.489.587.0
Point differential+6.0+10.0+0.7
Avg total182.9189.0174.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Reggiana
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL29%
HomeLWWL50%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %29%50%0%
Points / game81.782.580.7
Allowed / game83.778.091.3
Point differential-2.0+4.5-10.7
Avg total165.4160.5172.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna76186%96.486.0+10.4
2 Basket Napoli76186%93.786.6+7.1
3 Olimpia Milano75271%90.982.7+8.1
4 Maxima Roma75271%88.183.7+4.4
5 Treviso75271%90.788.6+2.1
6 Trieste74357%94.488.4+6.0
7 Udine74357%81.380.3+1.0
8 Varese74357%87.787.6+0.1
9 Venezia74357%87.988.6-0.7
10 Verona73443%88.491.1-2.7
11 Trento73443%80.483.6-3.1
12 BC Roma72529%100.199.3+0.9
13 Reggiana72529%81.783.7-2.0
14 Tortona72529%83.791.0-7.3
15 Scafati71614%81.692.0-10.4
16 Cantu7070%76.990.9-14.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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