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Varese vs Trieste Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 10 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 18:30
Final 85-84
19-15 21-23 21-20 24-26
Position#6
Record1-1
FormWLLWL
Points / game77.0
Allowed / game83.5
Varese 🏆
Italy
vs
Position#8
Record0-2
FormLWLLL
Points / game80.5
Allowed / game85.0
ItalyLega ARound 3· Palasport Lino Oldrini
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Varese v Trieste
10 Oct 2026
VAR85
TRI84
21 Dec 2025
VAR84
TRI69
04 May 2025
VAR85
TRI80
18 Dec 2022
VAR104
TRI99
13 Apr 2022
VAR76
TRI92
25 Apr 2021
VAR73
TRI79
19 Jan 2020
VAR91
TRI85
28 Oct 2018
VAR78
TRI66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Trieste winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Basket Napoli
#11
L
75-104
75
104
-29
57avg 73
A22/03
Lega A
Tortona
#6
W
97-87
97
87
+10
90avg 73
H28/03
Lega A
Trieste
#10
L
89-90
89
90
-1
76avg 73
A04/04
Lega A
Sassari
#16
W
91-90
91
90
+1
78avg 73
H12/04
Lega A
Cantu
#15
L
96-100
96
100
-4
94avg 73
A19/04
Lega A
Cremona
#12
W
84-75
84
75
+9
78avg 73
H26/04
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
85-104
85
104
-19
70avg 73
A10/05
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
69-90
69
90
-21
50avg 73
H27/09
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
85-77
85
77
+8
78avg 73
A04/10
Lega A
Murcia
#8
L
58-85
58
85
-27
44avg 73
A07/10
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-25
6-22
25-26
31-31
21-28
28-21
22-23
26-15
20-25
33-23
18-22
18-20
24-20
27-22
12-25
28-23
19-20
25-26
26-30
26-24
19-18
26-13
13-24
26-20
17-27
21-22
31-29
16-26
21-26
18-21
19-21
11-22
24-17
16-21
30-24
15-15
8-16
14-23
20-27
16-19
173.1Avg total
82.9Scored
90.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)77.083.5160.5-6.550%
Season at home (1)69.090.0159.0-21.00%
Season away (1)85.077.0162.0+8.0100%
Last 10 (10)82.990.2173.1-7.340%
Last 5 (5)76.286.2162.4-10.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)82.490.7173.1-8.429%
vs Similar ◀ (15)83.983.8167.7+0.153%
vs Weaker (1)85.077.0162.0+8.0100%
This opponent (Trieste) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TriesteItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTrieste
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
81-95
81
95
-14
74avg 76
A26/04
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#2
L
78-86
78
86
-8
76avg 76
A03/05
Lega A
Cremona
#12
L
89-94
89
94
-5
86avg 76
H10/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
W
92-90
92
90
+2
85avg 76
A16/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
82-90
82
90
-8
71avg 76
A18/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
80-84
80
84
-4
73avg 76
H21/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
W
83-77
83
77
+6
79avg 76
H23/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
75-90
75
90
-15
67avg 76
A25/05
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#4
L
79-83
79
83
-4
64avg 76
A27/09
Lega A
Venezia
#7
L
82-87
82
87
-5
57avg 76
H04/10
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-27
27-26
21-22
17-20
16-18
22-28
8-21
32-19
22-29
22-24
20-21
25-20
28-24
31-27
13-24
20-15
19-21
23-28
21-19
19-22
18-22
21-22
15-17
26-23
17-16
18-22
28-18
20-21
16-27
23-20
12-20
24-23
19-17
22-21
23-19
15-26
15-21
27-18
20-20
20-28
169.7Avg total
82.1Scored
87.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)80.585.0165.5-4.50%
Season at home (1)82.087.0169.0-5.00%
Season away (1)79.083.0162.0-4.00%
Last 10 (10)82.187.6169.7-5.520%
Last 5 (5)79.884.2164.0-4.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)80.186.9167.0-6.925%
vs Similar ◀ (13)85.483.5168.8+1.962%
vs Weaker (1)82.087.0169.0-5.00%
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.6-3.6Q1: -3.6-3.6Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: -3.5-3.5Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +0.1+0.1
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.6-3.6Q1: -3.6-3.6Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: -3.5-3.5Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +0.1+0.1
VareseTrieste
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Basket Napoli
#11
L
19-47
19
47
-28
A22/03
Lega A
Tortona
#6
D
49-49
49
49
+0
H28/03
Lega A
Trieste
#10
W
53-48
53
48
+5
A04/04
Lega A
Sassari
#16
W
51-42
51
42
+9
H12/04
Lega A
Cantu
#15
L
44-46
44
46
-2
A19/04
Lega A
Cremona
#12
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H26/04
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
38-49
38
49
-11
A10/05
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H27/09
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A04/10
Lega A
Murcia
#8
L
22-39
22
39
-17
A07/10
Champions League
83.6Avg total
40.0Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.143.283.3-3.133%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.142.183.3-1.036%-
Last 30 away (16)39.244.183.4-4.931%-
Last 10 (10)40.043.683.6-3.640%-
Last 5 (5)36.840.877.6-4.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)40.745.986.6-5.121%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)39.641.180.7-1.540%-
vs Weaker (1)40.038.078.0+2.0100%-
This opponent (Trieste) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TriesteLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
43-53
43
53
-10
A26/04
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#2
L
38-46
38
46
-8
A03/05
Lega A
Cremona
#12
L
44-53
44
53
-9
H10/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
W
59-51
59
51
+8
A16/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
42-49
42
49
-7
A18/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H21/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H23/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A25/05
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#4
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A27/09
Lega A
Venezia
#7
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H04/10
Lega A
88.0Avg total
42.2Scored
45.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.443.685.9-1.243%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.642.984.6-1.338%-
Last 30 away (14)43.244.387.5-1.150%-
Last 10 (10)42.245.888.0-3.630%-
Last 5 (5)39.241.280.4-2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)41.344.485.8-3.131%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)43.742.886.5+0.854%-
vs Weaker (1)42.039.081.0+3.0100%-
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 82.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.6 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.418.8
53.1%
54.4%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.110.2
32.8%
34.5%30.6
🏀 Free throws20.114.0
69.7%
74.5%14.0
They take 66.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Triestetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Trieste: 82.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.6 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.818.6
56.7%
54.4%37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.210.0
33.1%
34.5%30.0
🏀 Free throws19.014.9
78.4%
74.5%14.9
They take 63.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LWLLWLWLWL
Trieste
LLLWLLWLLL
#6
League position
#8
-8.3
Net rating
-6.4
90.9
Offensive rating
98.7
99.2
Defensive rating
105.1
51.3%
Effective FG%
53.3%
54.0%
Opp. effective FG%
54.6%
14.9%
Turnover %
14.3%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.30
32.8%
3-point %
33.1%
58.3%
Assist %
58.7%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence90.9 · 98.7Defence99.2 · 105.1Shooting51.3% · 53.3%3-point %32.8% · 33.1%Ball care14.9% · 14.3%Free throws0.30 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)40% · 20%
■ Varese   ■ Trieste
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Varese wins
5
Trieste wins
DateGameScore
04/04/26Trieste v Varese90-89
21/12/25Varese v Trieste84-69
04/05/25Varese v Trieste85-80
03/11/24Trieste v Varese107-81
16/04/23Trieste v Varese80-83
18/12/22Varese v Trieste104-99 OT
13/04/22Varese v Trieste76-92
14/11/21Trieste v Varese70-86
25/04/21Varese v Trieste73-79
27/01/21Trieste v Varese108-83
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/10/26AMurcia58-85
04/10/26AScafati85-77
27/09/26HVirtus Bologna69-90
10/05/26AVirtus Bologna85-104
26/04/26HCremona84-75
19/04/26ACantu96-100
12/04/26HSassari91-90
04/04/26ATrieste89-90
28/03/26HTortona97-87
22/03/26ABasket Napoli75-104
Triestelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/10/26HVenezia82-87
27/09/26AOlimpia Milano79-83
25/05/26ABrescia75-90
23/05/26HBrescia83-77
21/05/26HBrescia80-84
18/05/26ABrescia82-90
16/05/26ABrescia92-90
10/05/26HCremona89-94
03/05/26AOlimpia Milano78-86
26/04/26AVirtus Bologna81-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLW50%
HomeL0%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%0%100%
Points / game77.069.085.0
Allowed / game83.590.077.0
Point differential-6.5-21.0+8.0
Avg total160.5159.0162.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Trieste
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLL0%
HomeL0%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game80.582.079.0
Allowed / game85.087.083.0
Point differential-4.5-5.0-4.0
Avg total165.5169.0162.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna220100%94.079.0+15.0
2 Basket Napoli220100%96.584.0+12.5
3 Treviso220100%101.092.0+9.0
4 Venezia220100%86.077.5+8.5
5 Udine32167%79.373.7+5.7
6 Trento32167%82.379.0+3.3
7 BC Roma21150%101.089.5+11.5
8 Olimpia Milano21150%77.577.0+0.5
9 Verona21150%84.086.5-2.5
10 Varese21150%77.083.5-6.5
11 Tortona21150%85.5100.5-15.0
12 Trieste2020%80.585.0-4.5
13 Reggiana2020%85.591.0-5.5
14 Cantu2020%78.585.0-6.5
15 Maxima Roma2020%82.096.0-14.0
16 Scafati2020%70.086.0-16.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese1921212485
Trieste1523202684
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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