The UCF Knights host the Florida Gulf Coast on 2 November 2026 in an NCAA contest that the Pythia model deems a comfortable 71% win for the home side, projecting a 78-72 scoreline. UCF finishes the season 1-4 in its last five games, having lost to UCLA 71-75, Arizona 59-81 and won only against Cincinnati 66-65, while averaging 78 points per game and allowing 72. The Knights sit in a mid-table league position, whereas Florida Gulf Coast is 2-3 in its recent five, with victories over Lipscomb 77-53 and North Alabama 69-58, and a loss to Central Arkansas 63-73, and they average 72 points scored and 78 allowed. Their only prior meeting ended with UCF triumphing 102-80 on 20 December 2025, giving the Knights a 1-0 edge. Pythia assigns the Knights a 71% chance of victory and a 29% chance for the Gulls, with the projected total at 150.0 points and a 46% probability of the over on the 151.5 line. The home spread of -22.5 carries only an 8% chance of covering, and the game has a 5% likelihood of overtime. The Knights' recent win over Cincinnati suggests they can maintain offensive pressure, while the Gulls' recent win over Lipscomb hints they can keep the contest close.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UCF Knights winWon
70.7%fair 1.41
Best odds1.03
Implied94.4%
Edge-23.7pp
Florida Gulf Coast winLost
29.3%fair 3.42
Best odds19.00
Implied5.6%
Edge+23.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UKUCF KnightsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
2nd half Over/Under 80.5 · main lineActual: Over 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation
UCF
no forecast
@ 1.16
Draw
no forecast
@ 24.00
FLOR
no forecast
@ 5.70
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Florida Gulf Coast +14
76.4%
3.85
Bet365
3.85
-
-
-
-
+52.3pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +15
79.0%
3.45
Bet365
3.45
-
-
-
-
+52.1pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +16
81.5%
3.10
Bet365
3.10
-
-
-
-
+51.4pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +14.5
77.0%
3.60
Bet365
3.60
-
-
-
-
+51.1pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +17
83.7%
2.80
Bet365
2.80
-
-
-
-
+50.7pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +13.5
74.3%
3.90
Bet365
3.90
-
-
-
-
+50.5pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +18
85.7%
2.60
Bet365
2.60
-
-
-
-
+49.9pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +15.5
79.6%
3.10
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.00
-
-
-
+49.7pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +16.5
81.9%
2.81
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.77
-
-
-
+49.0pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +17.5
84.0%
2.61
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.57
-
-
-
+48.6pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +18.5
86.0%
2.45
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.40
-
-
-
+48.0pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +19
87.5%
2.35
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
-
+47.9pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +20
89.2%
2.20
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
-
+47.1pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +19.5
87.7%
2.24
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
-
-
-
+46.5pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +21
90.6%
2.05
Bet365
2.05
-
-
-
-
+45.6pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +20.5
89.3%
2.08
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.07
-
-
+44.7pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +21.5
90.7%
1.98
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.98
SBO
1.96
-
+43.1pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +22
91.9%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.86
-
-
-
+42.1pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +22.5
92.0%
1.84
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
+41.5pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +23
93.0%
1.78
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.76
-
-
-
+40.7pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +23.5
93.1%
1.73
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.70
-
+39.6pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +24
94.0%
1.68
Bet365
1.68
-
-
-
-
+39.0pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +24.5
94.1%
1.64
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.64
Betano
1.62
-
-
+37.7pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast +25
94.9%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
-
+36.4pp
Won
UCF Knights under 83.5
70.4%
2.52
Betano
2.52
-
-
-
-
+34.3pp
Lost
UCF Knights under 84.5
73.7%
2.30
Betano
2.30
-
-
-
-
+34.2pp
Lost
UCF Knights under 88
84.5%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+33.9pp
Lost
UCF Knights under 85.5
76.8%
2.10
Betano
2.10
-
-
-
-
+33.6pp
Lost
UCF Knights under 87.5
82.4%
1.88
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
+33.1pp
Lost
UCF Knights under 88.5
84.9%
1.77
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.72
-
-
-
+32.7pp
Lost
UCF Knights under 86.5
79.7%
1.96
Betano
2.00
WilliamHill
1.91
-
-
-
+32.4pp
Lost
UCF Knights under 87
81.9%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+31.9pp
Lost
UCF Knights under 89.5
87.0%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+29.6pp
Lost
UCF Knights under 90.5
89.0%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+28.5pp
Lost
UCF Knights under 91.5
90.7%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+26.8pp
Lost
Florida Gulf Coast over 64.5
76.3%
1.82
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.78
-
+25.6pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast over 65
75.5%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+25.5pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast over 65.5
73.2%
1.91
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
+24.9pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast over 63.5
79.2%
1.62
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
-
+23.4pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast over 62.5
82.0%
1.52
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
-
+22.3pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast over 61.5
84.4%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast over 60.5
86.7%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Won
Florida Gulf Coast over 59.5
88.7%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
Under 158.5
70.1%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Lost
Under 159.5
72.1%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Lost
Under 159
71.5%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Lost
Under 160
73.6%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Lost
Under 160.5
74.1%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Lost
UCF Knights win
70.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-23.7pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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