UCF Knights face Georgia Southern in a November 13 NCAA contest, with the model rating UCF as the clear favourite thanks to a flawless 3-0 season record, an average of 86.3 points scored and 79.7 allowed, and a league position of 95, while Georgia Southern sits 276 with 1-2 and 80.3 points for and 82.3 against. UCF has won every game at home, posting 86.3 points and 79.7 allowed, and has won three of its last five, including a 96-95 win over Florida Gulf Coast, a 87-75 victory over Yale and a 76-69 triumph over South Alabama. Georgia Southern has struggled on the road, losing its sole away game 83-95 to Georgia Tech, and has won only two of its last five, with a 67-55 home win over Ball State and a 91-97 loss to Mercer. Pythia assigns a 90% chance to UCF and 10% to Georgia Southern, projecting a 88-74 score and a total of 161.7 points; the home line of -22.5 carries a 24% chance of covering, while the total line of 161.5 has a 50% over probability and a 2% chance of overtime. The Knights' dominant season numbers suggest they will maintain control, and their recent 96-95 win shows they can edge close games.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UCF Knights winWon
89.7%fair 1.12
Best odds1.02
Implied93.4%
Edge-3.8pp
Georgia Southern winLost
10.3%fair 9.69
Best odds26.00
Implied6.6%
Edge+3.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UCF KnightsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brigham Young
#76
W
52-28
52
28
+24
A25/02
NCAA
Baylor
#200
L
42-56
42
56
-14
H01/03
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H04/03
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
L
23-32
23
32
-9
A07/03
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
L
26-27
26
27
-1
H11/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
30-46
30
46
-16
A12/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A20/03
NCAA
Florida Gulf Coast
#304
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H03/11
NCAA
Yale
#322
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H07/11
NCAA
South Alabama
#257
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H11/11
NCAA
73.0Avg total
34.7Scored
38.3Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 77.5
Last 30 (30)
36.8
37.5
74.4
-0.7
40%
33%
Last 30 at home (19)
38.7
37.7
76.4
+1.1
42%
42%
Last 30 away (11)
33.5
37.3
70.8
-3.7
36%
18%
Last 10 (10)
34.7
38.3
73.0
-3.6
10%
40%
Last 5 (5)
32.8
39.0
71.8
-6.2
0%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)
34.9
37.0
71.9
-2.1
43%
43%
vs Similar (16)
36.9
38.6
75.6
-1.7
38%
38%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)
38.6
35.6
74.1
+3.0
43%
14%
This opponent (Georgia Southern) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Georgia Southern +20.5
70.4%
2.27
Pinnacle
2.42
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.18
-
-
+31.1pp
Won
Georgia Southern +21
72.6%
2.21
Pinnacle
2.31
Bet365
2.12
-
-
-
+31.1pp
Won
Georgia Southern +22
75.5%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.11
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.85
-
-
+30.2pp
Won
Georgia Southern +21.5
73.4%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.05
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.00
SBO
1.93
+30.1pp
Won
Georgia Southern +22.5
76.2%
1.91
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
1.95
SBO
1.93
Bet365
1.92
1xBet
1.83
+28.5pp
Won
Georgia Southern +23
78.2%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.88
SBO
1.88
Bet365
1.88
-
+28.2pp
Won
Georgia Southern +23.5
78.8%
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.84
Bet365
1.84
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
SBO
1.81
+26.2pp
Won
Georgia Southern +24
80.7%
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.74
-
-
+25.9pp
Won
Georgia Southern +25
83.0%
1.63
Bet365
1.64
Pinnacle
1.63
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
Georgia Southern +24.5
81.2%
1.71
Betano
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.72
Bet365
1.71
Pinnacle
1.68
-
+24.2pp
Won
UCF Knights under 93.5
70.7%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
+20.1pp
Won
UCF Knights under 94.5
74.1%
1.62
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Won
UCF Knights under 95.5
77.3%
1.53
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
-
+18.1pp
Won
UCF Knights under 96.5
80.2%
1.47
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Won
UCF Knights under 98.5
85.3%
1.35
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Won
UCF Knights under 97.5
82.9%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 66.5
75.6%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 64.5
81.4%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 67.5
72.3%
1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 65.5
78.6%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 63.5
84.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 61.5
88.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 59.5
91.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 55.5
96.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 57.5
94.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 53.5
97.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Under 170.5
70.9%
1.37
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Under 170
70.3%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Under 171
72.4%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Under 171.5
73.0%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
UCF Knights (regulation)
88.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
UCF Knights over 74.5
91.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
UCF Knights over 76.5
87.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
UCF Knights win
89.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
UCF Knights over 78.5
83.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
UCF Knights -3.5
84.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.6pp
Won
UCF Knights over 80.5
77.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-9.3pp
Won
Georgia Southern under 79.5
72.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-10.6pp
Won
UCF Knights over 82.5
71.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-11.6pp
Won
UCF Knights -8.5
70.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-18.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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