Uconn will host Wagner on 9 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Uconn the clear favourite with a 99% chance of winning, a projection of 88 points to Wagner's 57 and a 144.7 total that sits just above the 142.5 over/under line, giving a 55% chance the game will exceed it. Uconn is 2-0 this season, averaging 85.5 points scored and allowing 61.5, while Wagner is 0-2, scoring 53.5 and conceding 79.5, a stark contrast that explains the model's confidence. At home Uconn has a 1-0 record, 86.0 points per game and 46.0 allowed, and in the last five games they have won four and lost one, including a 85-77 victory over Michigan away on 6 November and an 86-46 win at home over Gardner Webb on 2 November. Wagner's road record is 0-2, 53.5 points per game and 79.5 allowed, with two wins and three losses in their last five, including defeats to Miami (FL), Boston College and LIU Sharks. The two teams have not met this season, so there is no head-to-head history to consider.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Uconn winWon
99.3%fair 1.01
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Wagner winLost
0.7%fair 148.64
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Uconn) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 134.5Actual: Under 134.5
Over 134.5
73.8%
@ 1.44+9.1pp
Under 134.5
26.2%
@ 2.62-9.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Over/Under 139.5 · main lineActual: Under 139.5
Over 139.5
62.7%
@ 1.90+10.8pp
Under 139.5
37.3%
@ 2.00-10.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.80
Marathon Be
1.79
WilliamHill
1.73
Under
WilliamHill
2.00
Betano
1.98
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.90
Over/Under 144.5Actual: Under 144.5
Over 144.5
50.5%
@ 2.62+13.1pp
Under 144.5
49.5%
@ 1.52-13.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.35
Under
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.44
📊 3. Team Totals
Uconn total 85.5Actual: Uconn under 85.5
Over 85.5
59.8%
@ 1.44-5.5pp
Under 85.5
40.2%
@ 2.85+5.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.37
Under
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.45
Uconn total 89.5 · main lineActual: Uconn under 89.5
Over 89.5
43.8%
@ 1.91-6.2pp
Under 89.5
56.2%
@ 1.85+6.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Uconn total 93.5Actual: Uconn under 93.5
Over 93.5
28.8%
@ 2.65-7.7pp
Under 93.5
71.2%
@ 1.52+7.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.38
Wagner total 47.5Actual: Wagner under 47.5
Over 47.5
no forecast
@ 1.39
Under 47.5
no forecast
@ 2.80
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.38
Under
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.60
Wagner total 51.5 · main lineActual: Wagner under 51.5
Over 51.5
70.1%
@ 1.93+20.1pp
Under 51.5
29.9%
@ 1.95-20.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Bet365
1.74
Under
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.78
Wagner total 55.5Actual: Wagner under 55.5
Over 55.5
55.0%
@ 3.25+24.5pp
Under 55.5
45.0%
@ 1.34-24.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betano
2.80
Under
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.30
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Uconn -40.5Actual: Uconn -40.5
UCON -40.5
no forecast
@ 2.20
WAGN +40.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Best 5 market prices
UCON
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.92
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.80
WAGN
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
BetVictor
1.83
Marathon Be
1.73
Bet365
1.60
Spread Uconn -37.5 · main lineActual: Uconn -37.5
UCON -37.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
WAGN +37.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
Best 5 market prices
UCON
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
WAGN
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.90
SBO
1.87
Spread Uconn -34.5Actual: Uconn -34.5
UCON -34.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
WAGN +34.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
Best 5 market prices
UCON
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.52
WAGN
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.20
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UconnWagner
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Wagner over 51
72.6%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+22.3pp
Lost
Wagner over 51.5
70.1%
1.85
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
Bet365
1.74
+20.1pp
Lost
Over 136
71.1%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Lost
Uconn under 95.5
77.7%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Over 135
73.2%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Lost
Over 134
75.3%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Lost
Over 135.5
71.7%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Lost
Over 133
77.3%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Lost
Over 134.5
73.8%
1.43
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Lost
Uconn under 99.5
87.8%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Over 133.5
75.8%
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Lost
Uconn under 97.5
83.2%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Over 132
79.1%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Lost
Uconn under 93.5
71.2%
1.45
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Over 132.5
77.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Lost
Uconn under 101.5
91.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Over 131.5
79.5%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Lost
Over 129.5
82.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Lost
Uconn under 94.5
74.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Uconn under 98.5
85.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Uconn under 96.5
80.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Uconn under 102.5
92.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Uconn under 100.5
89.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Over 124.5
89.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Lost
Uconn over 73.5
92.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Uconn over 75.5
89.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Uconn over 72.5
94.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Over 126.5
87.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Lost
Uconn over 77.5
85.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Uconn over 79.5
80.4%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Uconn over 74.5
91.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Uconn over 76.5
87.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Under 166.5
91.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Uconn over 78.5
83.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Uconn -17.5
88.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Under 164.5
89.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Under 161.5
85.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Uconn over 81.5
74.3%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Uconn over 80.5
77.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
Uconn over 82.5
70.9%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Under 159.5
82.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Wagner under 66.5
83.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
Under 156.5
76.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-9.2pp
Won
Uconn -22.5
77.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-11.1pp
Won
Wagner under 65.5
81.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-11.7pp
Won
Under 154.5
73.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-13.1pp
Won
Wagner under 64.5
78.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-15.4pp
Won
Wagner under 63.5
75.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-15.5pp
Won
Wagner under 62.5
72.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-19.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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